Bancks, Michael P.

Introduction: Increased levels of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), active in cell growth, motility, and morphogenesis, are associated with the presence of obesity, poor metabolic health, and cardiovascular disease. Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that higher baseline levels of HGF will be associated with increased risk of diabetes. Methods: We examined the association between HGF and incident diabetes in MESA, including 5395 men and women 45-84 years of age at enrollment (2000-02). Fasting serum HGF was measured at baseline and on a subsample of participants at exam 2 (n = 1915). From 2000-11, incidence of diabetes was ascertained over 4 follow-up examinations, determined by new use of insulin or oral hypoglycemic medication or fasting glucose ≥ 126 mg/dL. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for incident diabetes according to 1 standard deviation unit (SDU) of HGF (1 SDU =256 pg/mL), before and after adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, study center, smoking status, alcohol consumption, BMI, WC, fasting glucose and insulin, CRP, and IL-6 levels. Similarly, hazard ratios for incident diabetes were estimated according to change in HGF levels from exam 1 to exam 2 in the subsample. Results: At baseline, older age, male sex, current smoking, and higher body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), fasting glucose and insulin, C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were all associated with higher levels of HGF, while greater education and physical activity were associated with lower serum HGF. Incidence of diabetes in this analytic sample was 12% (n cases = 670). Per 1 SDU increase in baseline HGF level, unadjusted risk for diabetes increased 1.46 fold (95% CI=1.37, 1.56). After adjustment, diabetes risk per 1 SDU increase in HGF was attenuated but remained significantly increased (HR=1.22; 95% CI=1.12, 1.32). No association was found between change in HGF level between exam 1 and exam 2 and incidence of diabetes. There was no evidence of effect modification by race/ethnicity for either analysis. Conclusion: In conclusion, in this ethnically diverse U.S. adult population, higher levels of serum HGF were independently associated with increased incidence of diabetes.