Yu, Bing

Abstract Background The risk of cancers is well characterized in Lynch syndrome (LS) families but has been less studied in familial colorectal cancer type X (FCCTX) families. Methods In this article, we compare the risk estimates of first and second colorectal cancers (CRCs) in 168 FCTTX and 780 LS families recruited through the Colon Cancer Family Registry as well as the risk of cancer-related deaths and disease-free survival (DFS) after a first CRC. Our methodology is based on a survival analysis approach, developed specifically to model the occurrence of successive cancers (ie, first and second CRCs) in the presence of competing risk events (ie, death from any causes). Results We found an excess risk of first and second CRC in individuals with LS compared to FCCTX family members. However, for an average age at first CRC of 60 years in FCCTX families and 50 years in LS families, the DFS rates were comparable in men but lower in women from FCCTX vs LS families, eg , 75.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 69.0% to 80.9%) vs 78.9% (95% CI = 76.3% to 81.3%) for the 10-year DFS. The 10-year risk of cancer-related death was higher in FCCTX families vs LS families, eg, 15.4% in men (95% CI = 10.9% to 19.8%) and 19.3% in women (95% CI = 13.6% to 24.7%) vs 8.9% (95% CI = 7.5% to 11.4%) and 8.7% (95% CI = 7.1% to 10.8%), respectively. Conclusions Individuals with CRCs arising in the context of FCCTX do not experience the same improved DFS and overall survival of those with LS, and that difference may be relevant in management decisions.

ObjectivesTo develop and validate a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of malignancy in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN).Materials and MethodsA primary cohort of 1798 patients with pathologically confirmed solid SPNs after surgery was retrospectively studied at five institutions from January 2014 to December 2015. A nomogram based on independent prediction factors of malignant solid SPN was developed. Predictive performance also was evaluated using the calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).ResultsThe mean age of the cohort was 58.9 ± 10.7 years. In univariate and multivariate analysis, age; history of cancer; the log base 10 transformations of serum carcinoembryonic antigen value; nodule diameter; the presence of spiculation, pleural indentation, and calcification remained the predictive factors of malignancy. A nomogram was developed, and the AUC value (0.85; 95%CI, 0.83‐0.88) was significantly higher than other three models. The calibration cure showed optimal agreement between the malignant probability as predicted by nomogram and the actual probability.ConclusionsWe developed and validated a nomogram that can estimate the pretest probability of malignant solid SPNs, which can assist clinical physicians to select and interpret the results of subsequent diagnostic tests.