Bissett, Ian

ABSTRACT Introduction Postoperative mortality commonly follows complications that are not prevented, recognised or managed effectively. Ward‐based nursing care is central to surveillance, escalation and rescue, but population‐level evidence using shift‐level staffing data is limited. This national population‐based cohort study examined the association between surgical ward nurse staffing and postoperative outcomes. Methods Adults aged 18 years or older undergoing inpatient surgery under general or neuraxial anaesthesia in public hospitals in Aotearoa New Zealand between 2022 and 2024 were included. Prospectively recorded TrendCare staffing data were linked to administrative health datasets. The exposure was shift‐level staffing variance, defined as the difference between required and available nursing care hours on surgical wards in the treating hospital during admission. The primary outcome was 90‐day postoperative mortality. Secondary outcomes were postoperative complications and failure to rescue. Results The cohort included 202 428 patients undergoing 223 415 surgical admissions. Within 90 days, 6296 admissions resulted in death (2.8%). Complications occurred in 41 722 admissions (18.7%), with failure to rescue in 15.1%. Of 281 147 surgical ward shifts, 122 186 (43.5%) were understaffed. After adjustment, each one‐nurse reduction in staffing per shift was associated with higher odds of mortality (aOR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07–1.18), complications (aOR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.05–1.10) and failure to rescue (aOR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00–1.14). Modelling estimated that correcting observed staffing deficits was associated with 182 fewer deaths annually. Conclusion Lower surgical ward nurse staffing was associated with increased postoperative mortality, complications and failure to rescue. Nurse staffing is a modifiable system factor associated with postoperative safety and should be prioritised to improve surgical outcomes.

Abstract Background Failure to rescue (FTR) is a key driver of postoperative mortality and reflects a hospital’s ability to recognize, escalate, and treat complications. Although FTR varies substantially between hospitals, the hospital characteristics that underpin this variation are inconsistently described. The aim of this study was to synthesize evidence on hospital-level factors associated with FTR after postoperative complications across surgical populations and health systems. Methods A systematic review of observational studies evaluating associations between hospital-level characteristics and FTR in surgical patients was undertaken. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Scopus were systematically searched on 17 July 2024 and updated to 31 December 2025. Hospital factors were classified into structural, staffing, and system domains. Where three or more non-overlapping studies reported adjusted estimates in comparable formats, random-effects meta-analyses were performed; otherwise, findings were summarized narratively. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the ROBINS-I tool (version 2). Results A total of 111 studies encompassing over 137 million patients and 301 hospital factors were included. Meta-analyses demonstrated lower FTR rates in larger hospitals (odds ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.97), hospitals with greater intensive care unit capacity (odds ratio 0.80, 0.71 to 0.90), and teaching hospitals (odds ratio 0.88, 0.83 to 0.93). Better nursing resources were consistently associated with lower FTR, including patient-to-nurse ratios (odds ratio 1.07, 1.03 to 1.10), higher nurse education (odds ratio 0.95, 0.91 to 0.99), and more favourable work environments (odds ratio 0.93, 0.90 to 0.95). Safety-net hospital status was associated with higher FTR (odds ratio 1.22, 1.03 to 1.45). Substantial heterogeneity was observed across most analyses. Conclusion Hospital-level structural, staffing, and system characteristics are associated with variation in FTR. Postoperative mortality is closely linked to institutional capacity to detect and manage complications, underscoring the importance of adequate resourcing and system organization to improve surgical outcomes.

ABSTRACT Background Many older adults undergo gastrointestinal (GI) cancer surgery, yet the relative impacts of advanced age, comorbidity, and frailty on postoperative mortality and failure to rescue (FTR) remain unclear. We aimed to compare the impacts of these factors on postoperative outcomes in a large population‐based cohort. Method We conducted a national retrospective linked database study of patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent resection for GI or hepatobiliary cancer in Aotearoa New Zealand between 2005 and 2020. Age, comorbidity (C3 Comorbidity Score), and frailty (Hospital Frailty Risk Score) were examined as independent predictors of 90‐day mortality, complications, and FTR (death following a complication). Logistic regression models were adjusted for demographic and clinical covariates. Results Among 21,729 patients (mean age 75.8 ± 6.8 years), 49.3% experienced one or more complications and 6.1% died within 90 days (FTR rate of 12.3%). In adjusted models, each additional 5 years of age increased 90‐day mortality odds by 40% (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.40 and 95% CI 1.34–1.46). Although higher comorbidity (C3 > 3) and frailty (Hospital Frailty Risk Score > 15) also independently raised mortality risk (aOR 1.98 and 2.04, respectively), age exerted the largest effect on mortality and FTR. Conclusion Chronological age, comorbidity, and frailty each predict worse outcomes following GI cancer surgery, but advanced age remains the dominant driver of 90‐day mortality and FTR. These findings underscore the need for risk stratification, shared decision‐making, and preoperative optimization as wells as intense surveillance for complications and early definitive care of older adults undergoing major oncologic operations.

Abstract Background Indigenous populations worldwide experience unjust inequities in surgical outcomes. In Aotearoa New Zealand, Indigenous Māori experience poorer health outcomes, including higher rates of postoperative mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify ethnic disparities in ‘failure to rescue’ (FTR), complications, and mortality following gastrointestinal cancer surgery and to analyse trends over time. Methods A retrospective national population-based cohort study of patients undergoing resection for gastrointestinal and hepatopancreatobiliary cancers from 2005 to 2020 was conducted. Self-reported ethnicity data were collected at the time of surgery. The primary outcome was FTR, defined as mortality following a complication within 90 days of surgery. Results In total, 31 185 patients were included; 2479 (7.9%) were Māori, 46.5% were female, and the median age was 71 (interquartile range 62–78) years. Māori patients were younger and had higher levels of socio-economic deprivation and co-morbidity. Māori had higher age-standardized rates of mortality (5.9% versus 3.2%), complications (52.9% versus 42.4%), and FTR (10.8% versus 7.2%), compared with European/Other. Multivariable regression demonstrated higher odds of mortality (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.45 (95% c.i. 1.15–1.82)), complications (aOR 1.30 (95% c.i. 1.17–1.45)), and FTR (aOR 1.29 (95% c.i. 1.01–1.62)) for Māori. Analysis over time showed a significant improvement in risk-adjusted rates of mortality (6.2% in 2005–2008 versus 3.4% in 2017–2020) and FTR (7.3% in 2005–2008 versus 4.0% in 2017–2020) for European/Other, but no change for Māori (rates of mortality were 6.6% in 2005–2008 versus 5.4% in 2017–2020 and rates of FTR were 7.8% in 2005–2008 versus 6.3% in 2017–2020). Conclusion Widening inequities in FTR have worsened disparities in postoperative mortality for Māori patients. ‘Complication rescue’ is a target to reduce inequities and improve perioperative care for Māori patients.