Verdonk, Robert C

ABSTRACTBackgroundPancreatic cysts are increasingly discovered on imaging studies performed for unrelated conditions. Currently, surveillance of these lesions poses a substantial burden on patients, and health care recourses. We hypothesized that individuals with small and stable cysts have a diminutive risk of progressing to high‐grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer (PC) that is similar to that in the general population.MethodsThis nested PACYFIC‐study is a collaboration among 44 centers in Europe and Northern‐America, and investigates the risk of HGD and PC for different cyst sizes and growth rates in participants without baseline worrisome features (WF) or high‐risk stigmata (HRS).ResultsOf the 2369 PACYFIC participants, 975 met the inclusion criteria, with a mean age of 67 years (SD 13) and 65% being female. Of these, 438 individuals (45%) had a baseline small cyst size (< 15 mm), and 885 (91%) individuals had a slow growth rate (< 2.5 mm/year). During a median follow‐up of 45 months (IQR 27), 20 individuals (2.1%) developed HGD, or PC. Individuals with small cysts had a 1.5‐fold lower risk of developing WF or HRS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.7 [0.5–1.0], p = 0.03) than those with larger cysts but a similar risk of developing HGD or PC (p > 0.05). Slow growth was protective against the development of WF or HRS (HR 0.4 [0.2–0.6], p < 0.001) and HGD or PC (HR 0.04 [95% CI 0.02–0.12], p < 0.001). Individuals with small, stable sized cysts without baseline WF or HRS did not have a higher risk of HGD or PC than the general population (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] 1.13 [95% CI 0.01–6.30]).ConclusionCyst size < 15 mm and growth rate < 2.5 mm/year appear to be “reassuring” features associated with a negligible risk of developing WF or HRS and HGD or PC. For cysts with these characteristics—and without baseline WF or HRS—less intensive surveillance (than currently recommended) or even cessation may be appropriate.

Background Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a frequent disorder with considerable morbidity and mortality. Obesity has previously been reported to influence disease severity. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the association of adipose and muscle parameters with the severity grade of AP. Methods In total 454 patients were recruited. The first contrast‐enhanced computed tomography of each patient was reviewed for adipose and muscle tissue parameters at L3 level. Associations with disease severity were analysed through logistic regression analysis. The predictive capacity of the parameters was investigated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results No distinct variation was found between the AP severity groups in either adipose tissue parameters (visceral adipose tissue and subcutaneous adipose tissue) or visceral muscle ratio. However, muscle mass and mean muscle attenuation differed significantly with p ‐values of 0.037 and 0.003 respectively. In multivariate analysis, low muscle attenuation was associated with severe AP with an odds ratio of 4.09 (95% confidence intervals: 1.61–10.36, p ‐value 0.003). No body parameter presented sufficient predictive capability in ROC‐curve analysis. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that a low muscle attenuation level is associated with an increased risk of severe AP. Future prospective studies will help identify the underlying mechanisms and characterise the influence of body composition parameters on AP.