Patrascanu, Octavian Stefan

Background: Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a life-threatening complication of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and remains the leading cause of in-hospital mortality, with rates ranging from 5 to 10% despite advances in reperfusion strategies. Early identification and timely intervention are critical for improving outcomes. This study investigates the utility of machine learning (ML) models for predicting the risk of CS during the early phases of care—prehospital, emergency department (ED), and cardiology-on-call—with a focus on accurate triage and prioritization for urgent angiography. Results: In the prehospital phase, the Extra Trees classifier demonstrated the highest overall performance. It achieved an accuracy (ACC) of 0.9062, precision of 0.9078, recall of 0.9062, F1-score of 0.9061, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.8140, indicating both high predictive power and strong generalization. In the ED phase, the support vector machine model outperformed others with an ACC of 78.12%. During the cardiology-on-call phase, Random Forest showed the best performance with an ACC of 81.25% and consistent values across other metrics. Quadratic discriminant analysis showed consistent and generalizable performance across all early care stages. Key predictive features included the Killip class, ECG rhythm, creatinine, potassium, and markers of renal dysfunction—parameters readily available in routine emergency settings. The greatest clinical utility was observed in prehospital and ED phases, where ML models could support the early identification of critically ill patients and could prioritize coronary catheterization, especially important for centers with limited capacity for angiography. Conclusions: Machine learning-based predictive models offer a valuable tool for early risk stratification in STEMI patients at risk for cardiogenic shock. These findings support the implementation of ML-driven tools in early STEMI care pathways, potentially improving survival through faster and more accurate decision-making, especially in time-sensitive clinical environments.

Background: While early risk stratification in STEMI is essential, the threat of cardiogenic shock (CS) persists after revascularization due to reperfusion injury and evolving instability. However, risk prediction in later phases—after revascularization—is less explored, despite its importance in guiding intensive care decisions. This study evaluates machine learning (ML) models for dynamic risk assessment in interventional cardiology and cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) phases, where timely detection of deterioration can guide treatment escalation. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinical and procedural data from 158 patients diagnosed with STEMI complicated by cardiogenic shock, treated between 2019 and 2022 at the Cardiology Department of the University Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Romania. Machine learning models—Random Forest (RF), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA)—were developed and tested specifically for the interventional cardiology and CICU phases. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), accuracy (ACC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score. Results: In the interventional phase, RF and QDA achieved the highest accuracy, both reaching 87.50%. In the CICU, RF and QDA demonstrate the best performance, reaching ACCs of 0.843. QDA maintained consistent performance across phases. Relevant predictors included reperfusion strategy, TIMI flow before percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), Killip class, creatinine, and Creatine Kinase Index (CKI)—all parameters routinely assessed in STEMI patients. These models effectively identified patients at risk for post-reperfusion complications and hemodynamic decline, supporting decisions regarding extended monitoring and ICU-level care. Conclusions: Predictive models implemented in advanced STEMI phases can contribute to dynamic, phase-specific risk reassessment and optimize CICU resource allocation. These findings support the integration of ML-based tools into post-PCI workflows, enabling earlier detection of clinical decline and more efficient deployment of intensive care resources. When combined with earlier-stage models, the inclusion of interventional and CICU phases forms a dynamic, end-to-end risk assessment framework. With further refinement, this system could be implemented as a mobile application to support clinical decisions throughout the STEMI care continuum.