Rabin, Karen R

PURPOSE To reduce costs in genomic studies of time-to-event phenotypes like survival, researchers often sequence a subset of samples from a larger cohort. This process usually involves two phases: first, collecting inexpensive variables from all samples, and second, selecting a subset for expensive measurements, for example, sequencing-based biomarkers. Common two-phase designs include nested case-control and case-cohort designs. Additional designs include sampling subjects based on follow-up time, like extreme case-control designs. Recently an optimal two-phase design using a maximum likelihood-based method was proposed, which could accommodate arbitrary sample selection in the second phase. However, direct comparisons of this optimal design with others in terms of power and computational cost is lacking. METHODS This study performs a direct evaluation of typical two-phase designs, including Tao's optimal design, on type I error, power, effect size estimation, and computational time, using both simulated and real data sets. RESULTS Results show that the optimal design had the highest power and accurate effect size estimation under the Cox regression model. Surprisingly, logistic regression achieved similar power with much lower computational cost than a more sophisticated method. The study further applied these methods to the MP2PRT study, reporting hazard ratios of cancer subtypes on relapse risk. CONCLUSION Recommendations for selecting two-phase designs and analysis methods are regarding power, bias of estimated effect size, and computational time.

PURPOSE Although cure rates for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) exceed 90%, ALL remains a leading cause of cancer death in children. Half of relapses arise in children initially classified with standard-risk (SR) disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS To identify genomic determinants of relapse in children with SR ALL, we performed genome and transcriptome sequencing of diagnostic and remission samples of children with SR (n = 1,381) or high-risk B-ALL with favorable cytogenetic features (n = 115) enrolled on Children's Oncology Group trials. We used a case-control study design analyzing 439 patients who relapsed and 1,057 who remained in complete remission for at least 5 years. RESULTS Genomic subtype was associated with relapse, which occurred in approximately 50% of cases of PAX5 -altered ALL (odds ratio [OR], 3.31 [95% CI, 2.17 to 5.03]; P = 3.18 × 10 –8 ). Within high-hyperdiploid ALL, gain of chromosome 10 with disomy of chromosome 7 was associated with favorable outcome (OR, 0.27 [95% CI, 0.17 to 0.42]; P = 8.02 × 10 –10 ; St Jude Children's Research Hospital validation cohort: OR, 0.22 [95% CI, 0.05 to 0.80]; P = .009), and disomy of chromosomes 10 and 17 with gain of chromosome 6 was associated with relapse (OR, 7.16 [95% CI, 2.63 to 21.51]; P = 2.19 × 10 –5 ; validation cohort: OR, 21.32 [95% CI, 3.62 to 119.30]; P = .0004). Genomic alterations were associated with relapse in a subtype-dependent manner, including alterations of INO80 in ETV6::RUNX1 ALL, IKZF1 , and CREBBP in high-hyperdiploid ALL and FHIT in BCR::ABL1 -like ALL. Genomic alterations were also associated with the presence of minimal residual disease, including NRAS and CREBBP in high-hyperdiploid ALL. CONCLUSION Genetic subtype, patterns of aneuploidy, and secondary genomic alterations determine risk of relapse in childhood ALL. Comprehensive genomic analysis is required for optimal risk stratification.

PURPOSE Patients with Down syndrome (DS) and B-ALL experience increased rates of relapse, toxicity, and death. We report results for patients with DS B-ALL enrolled on Children's Oncology Group trials between 2003 and 2019. METHODS We analyzed data for DS (n = 743) and non-DS (n = 20,067) patients age 1-30 years on four B-ALL standard-risk (SR) and high-risk trials. RESULTS Patients with DS exhibited more frequent minimal residual disease (MRD) ≥0.01% at end induction (30.8% v 21.5%; P < .001). This difference persisted at end consolidation only in National Cancer Institute (NCI) high-risk patients (34.0% v 11.7%; P < .0001). Five-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were significantly poorer for DS versus non-DS patients overall (EFS, 79.2% ± 1.6% v 87.5% ± 0.3%; P < .0001; OS, 86.8% ± 1.4% v 93.6% ± 0.2%; P < .0001), and within NCI SR and high-risk subgroups. Multivariable Cox regression analysis of the DS cohort for risk factors associated with inferior EFS identified age >10 years, white blood count >50 × 103/μL, and end-induction MRD ≥0.01%, but not cytogenetics or CRLF2 overexpression. Patients with DS demonstrated higher 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse (11.5% ± 1.2% v 9.1% ± 0.2%; P = .0008), death in remission (4.9% ± 0.8% v 1.7% ± 0.1%; P < .0001), and induction death (3.4% v 0.8%; P < .0001). Mucositis, infections, and hyperglycemia were significantly more frequent in all patients with DS, while seizures were more frequent in patients with DS on high-risk trials (4.1% v 1.8%; P = .005). CONCLUSION Patients with DS-ALL exhibit an increased rate of relapse and particularly of treatment-related mortality. Novel, less-toxic therapeutic strategies are needed to improve outcomes.