Asai, Shusaku W

Context: Early palliative care can improve end-of-life outcomes, but referrals to palliative care specialists can be delayed in the primary care setting. Objective: This pilot study assessed the effect of a machine-learning algorithm on time to palliative care in a primary care population. Methods: Patients (aged ≥18 years) were eligible if they were empaneled with a primary care provider (PCP) from July 20, 2020, through May 30, 2021. The algorithm evaluated their health records and presented patients who were predicted to have the greatest need for palliative care. Records were then reviewed by palliative care specialists, and patients were randomized in a stepped-wedge fashion to have a referral notification sent to their PCPs if unmet palliative care needs were verified. Time-to-event outcomes were evaluated with Poisson regression models. Results: Of the 127,080 patients evaluated, 934 had their health records presented for review. Some patients were repeatedly presented by the algorithm (total presentations: 1592). In the intervention arm, PCPs were prompted to order a palliative care consultation for 142 patients. The time to 0.1% of the population receiving a palliative care consultation was 60.9 days for the intervention arm versus 71.8 days for the control arm (probability of a shorter time with the intervention, 0.88). Conclusion: A machine-learning algorithm to identify palliative care needs was successfully integrated into a primary care practice. More work is needed to improve the workflow.

Abstract Objective Access to palliative care (PC) is important for many patients with uncontrolled symptom burden from serious or complex illness. However, many patients who could benefit from PC do not receive it early enough or at all. We sought to address this problem by building a predictive model into a comprehensive clinical framework with the aims to (i) identify in-hospital patients likely to benefit from a PC consult, and (ii) intervene on such patients by contacting their care team. Materials and Methods Electronic health record data for 68 349 inpatient encounters in 2017 at a large hospital were used to train a model to predict the need for PC consult. This model was published as a web service, connected to institutional data pipelines, and consumed by a downstream display application monitored by the PC team. For those patients that the PC team deems appropriate, a team member then contacts the patient’s corresponding care team. Results Training performance AUC based on a 20% holdout validation set was 0.90. The most influential variables were previous palliative care, hospital unit, Albumin, Troponin, and metastatic cancer. The model has been successfully integrated into the clinical workflow making real-time predictions on hundreds of patients per day. The model had an “in-production” AUC of 0.91. A clinical trial is currently underway to assess the effect on clinical outcomes. Conclusions A machine learning model can effectively predict the need for an inpatient PC consult and has been successfully integrated into practice to refer new patients to PC.