Shi, Qian

PurposeProgression-free survival (PFS) is not an optimal end point to evaluate therapeutic strategies in advanced colorectal cancer (ACRC). Therefore, composite end points have been proposed to evaluate a chemotherapy strategy when sequential treatments are available: duration of disease control (DDC) and time to failure of strategy (TFS). The goal of this study was to evaluate these alternative end points and their potential surrogacy for overall survival (OS).MethodsWe pooled individual patient data from three randomized trials evaluating chemotherapy strategy, which accrued 1,042 patients with previously untreated ACRC. In these trials, first-line treatment was either oxaliplatin- or irinotecan-based chemotherapy. Compared with TFS, DDC included neither time interval between progression and next sequence of treatment nor time to progression if the best result of the next sequence of treatment was progression.ResultsThere was good correlation between DDC and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.62; correlation of hazard ratio [HR]: adjusted copula R2, 0.72) and between TFS and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.59; correlation of HR: adjusted copula R2, 0.67). There was no correlation between PFS and OS (correlation of median: r, 0.45; correlation of HR: adjusted copula R2, 0.47).ConclusionDDC and TFS roughly achieved the same results. Both are acceptable new end points to evaluate a therapeutic strategy in ACRC. Although TFS achieved a pragmatic evaluation of a multiline strategy, DDC captured the effect of a specific sequence in a therapeutic strategy.

Background— Heart failure (HF) care constitutes an increasing economic burden on the health care system, and has become a key focus in the health care debate. However, there are limited data on the lifetime health care costs for individuals with HF after initial diagnosis. Methods and Results— Olmsted County residents with incident HF from 1987 to 2006 were identified. Direct medical costs incurred from the time of HF diagnosis until death or last follow-up were obtained using population-based administrative data through 2007. Costs were inflated to 2008 US dollars using the general Consumer Price Index. Inpatient, outpatient, and total costs were estimated using a 2-part model with adjustment for right censoring of data. Predictors of total costs were examined using a similar model. A total of 1054 incident HF patients were identified (mean age, 76.8 years; 46.1% men). After a mean follow-up of 4.6 years, 765 (72.6%) patients had died. The estimated total lifetime costs were $109 541 (95% confidence interval, $100 335 to 118 946) per person, with the majority accumulated during hospitalizations (mean, $83 980 per person). After adjustment for age, year of diagnosis, and comorbidity, diabetes mellitus and preserved ejection fraction (≥50%) were associated with 24.8% ( P =0.003) and 23.6% ( P =0.041) higher lifetime costs, respectively. Higher costs were observed at initial HF diagnosis and in the months immediately before death in those surviving >12 months after diagnosis. Conclusions— HF imposes a significant economic burden, primarily related to hospitalizations. Variations in cost over a lifetime can help identify strategies for efficient management of patients, particularly at the end of life.

Background Data collection and review were identified as major contributors to the cost of randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Purpose We proposed and assessed a novel alternative for long-term clinical trial follow-up based on the data captured through an accredited Cancer Registry (CR) that is part of the National Cancer Database (NCDB). Methods Patients from Mayo Clinic, Rochester, enrolled in the North Central Cancer Treatment Group N934653 (COST) trial (98 patients) and the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z0030 trial (55 patients) were included in the study. Demographic, treatment, and long-term outcome data were compared between the hospital-based CR and the RCTs’ databases. Concordances were used to estimate the agreement between two databases. Kaplan—Meier curves were plotted to examine the consistency of time-to-event long-term outcomes of the CR and RCT databases. Results High concordances (>95%) were observed for most demographic and treatment variables between the CR data and RCT data. The vital status concordances were 100% and 94.5% between the CR and COST and Z0030 databases, respectively. Three discrepant death dates were observed, one in the COST trial and two in the Z0030 trial. The concordances of disease-free status between the CR and RCT databases were 99.0% and 87.3%, and 15 discrepant disease recurrence cases were identified: 4 for COST and 11 for Z0030. Limitations The analysis has been focused on patients from a single site, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, enrolled in two large RCT evaluating surgical treatments. The findings herein need to be confirmed in a broader setting, such as multi-center, multi-registry including nonsurgical trials. Conclusions CR data were nearly identical to data from two randomized phase III trials in different disease types and conducted by two different cooperative groups. The NCDB Cancer Registries represent a feasible alternative for obtaining long-term follow-up data for large clinical trials. Clinical Trials 2010; 7: 686—695. http:// ctj.sagepub.com

Purpose We previously validated disease-free survival (DFS) as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in fluorouracil-based adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials. New therapies have extended survival after recurrence from 1 to approximately 2 years. We examined the possible impact of this improvement on the DFS/OS association. Methods The Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) data set of 20,898 patients was analyzed. In an exploratory fashion, time from recurrence to death in patients experiencing recurrence was extended using several algorithms, and the association of DFS after 3 years of median follow-up and OS after varying lengths of follow-up (median of 5, 6, and 7 years) was assessed. Results Seven thousand four hundred two patients (35%) experienced recurrence. Median time from recurrence to death was 24 months in the hypothetical data sets. When times from recurrence to death were doubled, the association between treatment effects on DFS and 5-year OS was modest (R2 = 0.51 for both 2- and 3-year DFS) but remained strong for DFS and 6-year OS (R2 = 0.67 for both 2- and 3-year DFS) and 7-year OS (R2 = 0.70 for both 2- and 3-year DFS). The reduced DFS/OS association with extended survival after recurrence was greater in stage II than stage III patients. Multiple simulations provided consistent findings. Conclusion Extended survival after recurrence reduces the association between treatment effects on 3-year DFS and 5-year OS, particularly in stage II patients; longer follow-up strengthens the association. In modern adjuvant trials, 6 or 7 years may be required to demonstrate OS improvements, further supporting DFS as the preferred primary end point for future adjuvant colon cancer clinical trials.

OBJECTIVE The negative results of two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have challenged current guideline recommendations for using aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events among patients with diabetes. We therefore sought to determine if the effect of aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events and mortality differs between patients with and without diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted a systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Scopus since their inceptions until November 2008 for RCTs of aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events. Blinded pairs of reviewers evaluated studies and extracted data. Random-effects meta-analysis and Bayesian logistic regression were used to estimate the ratios of relative risks (RRs) of outcomes of interest among patients with and without diabetes. A 95% CI that crosses 1.00 indicates that the effect of aspirin does not differ between patients with and without diabetes. RESULTS Nine RCTs with moderate to high methodological quality contributed data to the analyses. The ratios of RRs comparing the benefit of aspirin among patients with diabetes compared with patients without diabetes for mortality, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke were 1.12 (95% CI 0.92–1.35), 1.19 (0.82–1.17), and 0.70 (0.25–1.97), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Whereas estimates of benefit among patients with diabetes remain imprecise, our analysis suggests that the relative benefit of aspirin is similar in patients with and without diabetes.

This study investigated the association between sleep deprivation and enrollment in Advanced Placement (AP) and/or college courses among high school students. Approximately 4,000 surveys were distributed, and 2,197 completed surveys were returned from students in Grades 9 to 12 at 15 high schools in Iowa. Findings indicated the majority of high school students were sleep deprived. Sleep deprivation was significantly associated with enrollment in AP/college courses. Results indicated that enrollment in AP/college courses had a greater impact on younger students than older students. Compared with non–AP/college course takers, AP/college course takers slept approximately 20 minutes less per night. Specifically, 9th- and 10th-grade AP/college course takers slept approximately 1 hour less and 40 minutes less, respectively. In addition, students enrolled in two or more AP/college classes received 1 hour less and 30 minutes less among 10th and 11th graders, respectively. These results provide useful information on adolescent sleep patterns for school nurses.