Tefferi, Ayalew

e18607 Background: Progression to myelofibrosis (MF) is associated with worse survival and influences treatment decisions, yet predictors of fibrotic progression in polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) remain poorly characterized. Methods: Patients with pathologically confirmed PV or ET were identified from a retrospective chart review. Demographics (age, sex, race, ethnicity), clinical features (thrombosis and bleeding history, performance status, symptom burden, organomegaly), bone marrow pathology (cellularity, trilineage hematopoiesis, megakaryocyte proliferation and atypia, fibrosis grade), molecular markers ( JAK2 , CALR , MPL , ASXL1 , EZH2 , TET2 , SRSF2 , IDH1/2 , SF3B1 , TP53 ), cytogenetics, laboratory values, and treatment history (phlebotomy, hydroxyurea, interferon, ruxolitinib) at first bone marrow biopsy were recorded. MF progression was defined as hematologist-confirmed transformation to MF. Kaplan-Meier analyses estimated median MF-free survival (MFS), defined as time to MF progression or death. Univariable followed by multivariable Cox proportional regression were performed to identify candidate MFS predictors. The proportional hazards assumption was assessed using Schoenfeld residuals. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed, with p<0.05 indicating statistical significance. Results: A total of 505 PV and 198 ET patients were identified. The majority were White (PV: 92%; ET: 86%). PV patients were predominantly male (54%) whereas ET patients were predominantly female (66%). MF progression occurred in 160 (32%) PV and 32 (16%) ET patients. Death was observed in 139 (28%) PV and 10 (5%) ET patients. Median MFS was 158.5 months (95% CI: 143.0-183.0) for PV and 308.0 months (95% CI: 175.0-NR) for ET. In PV, older age at diagnosis (HR 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02-1.07; p<0.001) and shorter time since PV or ET diagnosis to biopsy (HR 0.995; 95% CI: 0.990-0.999; p=0.048) independently predicted worse MFS. In ET, bone marrow hypercellularity (HR 5.67, 95% CI: 1.40-23.0, p=0.015) independently predicted worse MFS. Conclusions: PV patients demonstrated shorter MFS compared to ET. Older age at diagnosis in PV, whereas bone marrow hypercellularity in ET was significantly associated with fibrotic progression or death. Active surveillance of at-risk patients may facilitate early detection and timely treatment initiation. Disease Variable HR (95%CI) P-value PV Age at diagnosis 1.04 (1.02-1.07) <0.001 Time since PV or ET diagnosis to biopsy 0.995 (0.990-0.999) 0.048 ET Bone marrow hypercellularity 5.67 (1.40-23.0) 0.015

e18524 Background: Venetoclax (Ven) in combination with hypomethylating agents (HMA) is FDA-approved front-line therapy for elderly or unfit patients with newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND-AML); however, majority relapse or are refractory ( Pratz AJH 2024 ). We examined survival outcomes in the setting of frontline Ven-HMA failure. Methods: ND-AML patients with failure to achieve complete remission (CR/CRi) or loss of CR/CRi after front-line Ven+HMA, excluding post-transplant relapse were retrospectively studied. Response was evaluated per European Leukemia Net 2022 criteria ( Dohner Blood 2022 ). Results: 356 patients with ND-AML (median age 75 years; 65% males; 55% secondary) receiving frontline Ven+HMA (median; 3 cycles (1-26), had refractory [n=219 (62%)], or relapsed disease [137 (38%)]. At diagnosis, karyotype was complex in 142/347 (41%). Mutations involved TP53 (29)%, ASXL1 (19%), RUNX1 (17%), SRSF2 (15%), KRAS/NRAS (13%), IDH2 (7%), FLT3-ITD (7%), NPM1 (6%) and IDH1 (5%). At treatment failure, complex karyotype was present in 72/180 (40%), including 55 from baseline. In 137 patients with paired NGS, mutations persisted in TP53 (88%), IDH1 (86%), IDH2 (78%), NPM1 (75%), K/NRAS (73%), RUNX1 (70%), FLT3-ITD (65%) mutations. Mutations were acquired in a minority [ IDH1 / IDH2 (2% each) TP53 (3%), NPM1 (4%), FLT3-ITD (5%) K/NRAS (6%)]. Clearance of mutations were infrequent for TP53 (12%) and IDH1 (14%). At median follow-up of 4 months (mo) (0-80) from the time of relapse/refractory disease, 320 (90%) patients have died, with median survival of 4 mo (1-2-3 yr survival 19%/8%/5%). On multivariate analysis, peripheral blasts >20%, complex karyotype, and wild-type IDH1 were independent predictors of inferior survival, while allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) was associated with improved survival. A 3-point prediction model based on peripheral blasts ≥20%, complex karyotype, and wild-type IDH1 stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, with median survival of 7, 3, 2 months, respectively (p<0.01). 13 patients underwent ASCT (median survival; 22.5 mo; 3-yr survival 33%), from low (n=10) or intermediate-risk groups (n=3). Salvage therapy (n=170, 48%) yielded CR/CRi of 31% for Ven+HMA (n=36), 54% intensive chemotherapy (n=26), 50% FLT3 inhibitors (i) (n=22), 37% IDH1/2i (n=19), 25% other regimens (n=69). Median survival was similar: Ven+HMA 8 mo, intensive chemotherapy 10 mo, FLT3i 6.5 mo, IDH1/2i 14 mo, other regimens 6 mo, but inferior with supportive care (2 mo; p<0.01). Conclusions: The current study identifies peripheral blasts ≥20%, complex karyotype, and wild-type IDH1 as predictors of inferior survival in ND-AML relapsed/refractory to front-line Ven+HMA and underlines that while no specific salvage therapy conferred superior outcomes, ASCT was indispensable for long-term survival.