Eiamprapaporn, Panuch

1591 Background: The 21-gene OncotypeDX (ODX) recurrence score (RS) is the standard for chemotherapy decision-making in HR+/HER2- early breast cancer (EBC), but cost limits accessibility in resource-constrained settings. The Magee equations (MEs) use routine pathology features (Nottingham grade and IHC; ER/PR/HER2/Ki-67) to estimate RS. We performed a meta-analysis to validate MEs performance as a triage tool for ODX testing and a qualitative synthesis to identify sources of discordance, highlighting the transition toward objective digital pathology AI models. Methods: A systematic review identified validation studies comparing MEs with RS in HR+ EBC. Studies with sufficient data to construct a 2X2 contingency table were included; neoadjuvant trials were excluded. Primary outcomes were Negative Predictive Value (NPV) for identifying low-risk cases (RS <26 for the current TAILORx cutoff and RS<31 for the historical cutoff) and ODX test sparing rate (TSR). Data were pooled using random-effects models. Qualitative themes regarding interpretation variability were extracted from study results and discussion sections. Results: Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria, representing 5396 patients in global cohorts from the USA, Mexico, Colombia, Jordan, France, Belgium, and Canada. For RS >26, Magee <18 achieved pooled NPV of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94-0.97) and TSR 61% (95% CI:51%-69%). For RS >31, NPV increased to 0.99 (95% CI: 0.97-1.00) and TSR 52% (95% CI: 44%-59%). Pooled diagnostic performance for Magee <18 predicting RS <26 demonstrated 83% sensitivity and 71% specificity (AUC 0.81, LR+:2.53, LR-:0.28). Qualitative analysis of discordance identified: (1) Inter-observer variability: Nottingham mitotic counts and Ki-67 scoring were the primary drivers of score fluctuations. (2) IHC quantification: Variations in H-score calculation and Allred-to-H-score conversion introduced heterogeneity (3) Pre-analytical and biological factors: Inflammation and stromal proliferation occasionally inflated genomic RS; selection of non-representative blocks and intratumor heterogeneity further contributed to discordance (4) Technological solutions: Digital pathology and AI models emerge as solutions to standardize these variables. Conclusions: Magee-based triage provides a safe and cost-effective strategy for HR+ EBC risk stratification, with NPV up to 99% for excluding high-risk disease and sparing up to 61% of ODX testing. These results confirm a robust histopathological signal. Transitioning to objective digital pathomics provides a pathway to reduce manual subjectivity and democratize precision oncology globally. Pooled diagnostic accuracy of Magee equations by cutoff. Magee score and RS cutoff Number of studies Total patients Pooled NPV (95% CI) ODX test sparing rate (95% CI) Magee <18/ RS>26 8 4153 0.96 (0.94-0.97) 61% (51%-69%) Magee <18/ RS>31 5 1243 0.99 (0.97-1.00) 52% (44%-59%)

Abstract Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based minimal residual disease (MRD) detection is a paradigm shift for risk stratification in early-stage breast cancer (eBC) surveillance. While the prognostic signal is clear, comprehensive synthesis across molecular subtypes remains limited, hindering the translation of prognostic findings into actionable, intervention-guided trials. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis following PROSPERO registration (CRD420251122005). Databases including PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched through September 2025. Studies involving eBC (stage I-III) patients with ctDNA-based MRD detection using validated assays, survival outcomes, and ≥12 months follow-up were included. Random-effects meta-analysis assessed the pooled hazard ratio (HR) for disease recurrence. Subgroup analyses explicitly evaluated molecular subtypes (TNBC, HER2+, HR+/HER2-) based on detection performance and gene mutation profiles. From 1,246 records, 59 studies were included, encompassing 12,847 eBC patients. Meta-analysis demonstrated an extreme prognostic value of disease-free survival from 26 studies with a pooled HR of 9.95 (95% CI: 6.50-15.25, p&lt;0.0001). High heterogeneity was observed (I2=67.2%), largely driven by differences in tumor biology and assay technology. Subtype-specific analysis highlighted distinct shedding rates: TNBC showed the highest baseline detection (80−83.8%) and sensitivity (85−90%). HR+/HER2-showed the lowest baseline detection (14.6−30%). Gene mutation analysis revealed actionability: TP53 predominated in TNBC, while PIK3CA, ESR1, and AKT1 mutations were more frequent in HR+/HER2- disease. Crucially, the time from ctDNA detection to clinical recurrence provided a consistent median lead time of 10.2 months (range 7.5−16months), with cases detected up to 68 months prior. Specificity exceeded 95% across all subtypes. This meta-analysis establishes ctDNA-based MRD detection as a clinically valid biomarker with a nearly 10-fold increased recurrence riskin ctDNA-positive patients. The high heterogeneity underscores the necessity of tailored, subtype-specific surveillance protocols and selection of ultra-sensitive assays. The consistent ∼10-month lead time defines a critical intervention window, providing a clear rationale for ongoing and future randomized clinical trials evaluating ctDNA-guided therapeutic intensification against the distinct molecular profiles observed in each breast cancer subtype. Citation Format: Panuch Eiamprapaporn, Thiti Susiriwatananont, Yaohua Ma, Hataiwan Ratanabunjerdkul, Panchanin Patanayindee, Lucksika Wanichtanom, E. Aubrey Thompson, Saranya Chumsri. Prognostic utility of minimal residual disease detection using circulating tumor DNA in early-stage breast cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 5380.