Abel, Gregory A.

ABSTRACT The epidemiology of myelodysplastic syndromes/neoplasms (MDS) is challenging to define due to inconsistent reporting, complex diagnostic procedures, and evolving diagnostic criteria. Using the National MDS Natural History Study—a prospective cohort with centrally adjudicated histopathology and genetic variant review—we characterized the landscape of MDS across the United States and identified differences across demographics. Among 2115 participants, 64% (1346) had an MDS spectrum condition, including MDS (24%), MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasm (5%) and precursor conditions—clonal cytopenia of undetermined significance (22%) and idiopathic cytopenia/dysplasia of undetermined significance (13%). The median age was 74 years, and participants were predominantly male (66%), White (91%), and Non‐Hispanic (92%). Myeloid‐associated variants were detected in 68% of participants, most commonly in TET2, DNMT3A, ASXL1, SF3B1, and SRSF2 . Black, compared to White, participants were younger at diagnosis (69 vs. 74 years, p = 0.01), had equal or increased prevalence of higher‐risk MDS, lower hemoglobin, and higher peripheral blood blasts, yet were less likely to receive MDS‐directed therapy (14% vs. 42%, p = 0.008). Black and Hispanic participants had fewer detectable gene mutations than White participants. Females had lower variant allele frequencies and fewer RNA splicing gene mutations than males. After multivariable adjustment, TP53 mutations, MDS diagnosis, and higher‐risk disease were associated with worse progression‐free and overall survival; age was also associated with overall survival. Black race trended toward improved progression‐free survival. These findings highlight the need for enhanced understanding of MDS pathogenesis across patient groups and refined prognostic tools to improve personalized management of MDS spectrum conditions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02775383

Abstract Patients at risk for progression from myeloid precursor states (idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance [ICUS] and clonal cytopenia of undetermined significance [CCUS]) to myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) are not well defined. Epidemiologic risk factors, clonal changes for MDS development, and evolution from one MDS state to another were available in the MDS Natural History Study (NHS), a prospective cohort enrolled at diverse US sites. Extensive clinical data and biospecimens were collected at baseline and follow-up. A total of 1177 (56%) individuals with MDS or MDS-related precursor conditions (ICUS/idiopathic dysplasia of undetermined significance [IDUS], CCUS, and MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasm overlap) were enrolled and diagnosed in the MDS NHS. The median age was 74 years, with 89% aged ≥60 years, and most were male patients. Median follow-up time was 1.6 years and was similar among ICUS/IDUS, CCUS, and MDS. During follow-up period, 68% of participants terminated the study, 35% died, and 38% had disease progression. Using a refined clinical definition of progression, the greatest proportion of progression was observed among higher-risk-MDS (116 [73%]), followed by lower-risk-MDS (170 [52%]); fewer progression events were observed among participants with CCUS (65 [22%]) and ICUS/IDUS (46 [17%]). Predictors of progression are delineated, including female sex, higher quantity of mutations, the presence of TP53 mutation, and poor/very poor cytogenetic score. Based on these prospective data, guidelines for clinical management including monitoring and surveillance are outlined. The MDS NHS provides real-world data to illustrate how clinical and genotypic differences inform the classification, disease course, and approach to therapy, with informed monitoring guidelines for patients. This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02775383.