Ligten, Matthew Van

Introduction: Complex congenital heart disease (CHD) patients with atrial arrhythmias have higher rates of morbidity and mortality compared to less complex CHD patients. This study aims to identify echocardiographic predictors of thromboembolism (TE) and major bleeding in patients with Tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) or Pulmonary Atresia with Intact Ventricular Septum (PA-IVS) and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AF). Methods: This cohort study included patients with ToF or PA-IVS who had a diagnosis of AF who underwent a TTE across three sites. Outcomes were incidence rate of major bleeding or TE, calculated using univariable and multivariable cox regression with interaction for anticoagulant choice and fractional area change (FAC). The HAS-BLED score was augmented with major predictors of bleeding, and receiver operator curves compared. Results: We included 300 patients (287 ToF [95.7%], 13 PA-IVS [4.3%]), mean age 45.6 years. Most received warfarin (227 [79.4%]), 40 (13%) used DOACs, and 5 (1.6%) used enoxaparin. TTE predictors of TE included large LVOT diameter ≥3cm (HR 8.92, p=0.002), small LVOT VTI (p=0.014), FAC <30% (HR 7.08, p=0.026) and moderate RV dysfunction (HR 10.75, p=0.026). Predictors of major bleeding included moderate tricuspid regurgitation (HR 2.40, p=0.022), right atrial pressure (1.12, p<0.001), severe RA enlargement (HR 2.30, p=0.048), RV mid diameter (HR 1.06, p=0.005), RV end diastolic area (HR 1.04, p=0.021), RV end systolic area (HR 1.05, p=0.016) elevated RVSP and FAC ≤45% (HR 0.37, p=0.016). Among warfarin users, impaired RV function (FAC ≤45%) was linked to reduced major bleeding events (HR 0.27, p=0.025). There was a nonsignificant trend towards higher bleeding in DOAC users with FAC >45% (HR 3.87, p=0.284), but significantly higher bleeding in DOAC users with FAC ≤45% (HR 12.41, p=0.008) vs. warfarin users with normal RV function (table 1). We developed an augmented HAS-BLED score: the standard score plus one point for moderate-to-severe pulmonic or tricuspid regurgitation and one for FAC ≤45%. This outperformed the standard HAS-BLED in predicting major bleeding (AUC 0.67 augmented vs. 0.57 un-augmented, p=0.008) (figure 1). Conclusion: Echocardiographic evidence of right heart disease is a strong predictor of major bleeding in patients with ToF or PA-IVS. FAC is a useful tool to determine excess major bleeding risk, particularly in DOAC users. Augmenting HAS-BLED with right heart parameters improves diagnostic accuracy.

Abstract Background Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) is associated with development of atrial fibrillation (AF) at an early age. With increased survival of this cohort into adulthood, the prevalence of concurrent CHD and AF is expected to increase over the next several decades. Little is known about the utility of clinical risk factors or prediction models in determining bleeding or stroke rates in adults with CHD and AF. Purpose This study aims to measure the performance of the CHADSVASC and HASBLED scores in a cohort of people with CHD. The association between traditional stroke and bleeding risk factors, as well as CHD-specific factors, will be quantified. Methods Patients age 18 or older attending one of three centers in the USA were included in this study if they had a history of AF on ECG, holter monitor or device interrogation, in addition to a diagnosis of Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF), Double Outlet Right Ventricle (DORV), or Pulmonary Atresia with Intact Ventricular Septum (PA-IVS). Outcomes were major bleeding event, and stroke rate. Analysis was conducted using cox univariable regression controlling for current age. Receiver operator curve and c-statistics were produced for the CHADSVASC and HASBLED scores respectively. Results 326 people were included in this study, of whom 161 (49.5%) had TOF secondary to Pulmonic Stenosis, 126 (38.8%) had TOF secondary to Pulmonary Atresia, 25 (7.7%) had DORV, and 155 (47.7%) had PA-IVS. 227 people used warfarin (79.4%), 28 (9.8%) used apixaban, 9 (3.1%) used Rivaroxaban, 3 (1%) used Edoxaban, and 5 (1.7%) used Enoxaparin for a period of at least 30 days during the study. 13 (4.5%) people didn’t receive anticoagulation during the study. 26 people had a stroke (8.8%) while 85 people (28.6%) had a major bleeding event. Only the CHADSVASC score was significantly associated with stroke rates (HR 2.103, 95% CI 1.555 to 2.844, p&lt;0.001). Clinical variables, such as subtype of CHD, prior conduit placement or unifocalization were not associated with stroke or major bleeding events. C-statistic for the CHADSVASC score in predicting stroke events was 0.755 (Figure 1). C-statistic for the HASBLED score in predicting major bleeding was 0.442 (Figure 2). Conclusions Among people with CHD and AF, the CHADSVASC score can robustly predict stroke events. Other clinical variables are less valuable in predicting either bleeding or strokes. The HASBLED score likely doesn’t have a role in predicting major bleeding episodes in this cohort.