Foreman, Aimee J.

Background— Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare but important cause of morbidity and mortality in children. Methods and Results— We analyzed data from 216 patients ≤18 years of age at diagnosis who were enrolled in the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL). Median age at diagnosis and enrollment was 7 and 15 years, respectively. The most frequent presenting symptom was dyspnea (idiopathic/familial PAH, 53%; PAH associated with congenital heart disease, 30%). Presyncope/syncope was more frequent in patients with idiopathic PAH/familial PAH (36%) than in those with PAH associated with congenital heart disease (4%). At diagnosis, mean pulmonary artery pressure and pulmonary vascular resistance index were 56 mm Hg and 17 Wood units · m 2 , respectively. Five-year survival from diagnosis for the overall cohort was 74±6%, with no significant difference between the idiopathic PAH/familial PAH (n=122, 75±7%) and PAH associated with congenital heart disease (n=77, 71±13%) cohorts ( P =0.53). Older age at diagnosis was the only variable significantly associated with decreased survival from diagnosis. Variables at enrollment that were significantly associated with decreased survival from enrollment included higher pulmonary vascular resistance index, lower-weight z scores, and familial PAH. Additional variables at enrollment, identified in a secondary analysis, that were marginally associated with increased survival from enrollment included acute vasoreactivity (adaptation of conventional pediatric definition; P =0.087) and lower brain natriuretic peptide ( P =0.060). None of the 22 patients who were acute responders treated with high-dose calcium channel blockade as monotherapy or combination therapy died within 5 years of diagnosis. Conclusion— Using REVEAL, we identified key predictors of survival in childhood PAH. Refining these prognostic parameters should help clinicians improve outcomes. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00370214.

Background— Factors that determine survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) drive clinical management. A quantitative survival prediction tool has not been established for research or clinical use. Methods and Results— Data from 2716 patients with PAH enrolled consecutively in the US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL) were analyzed to assess predictors of 1-year survival. We identified independent prognosticators of survival and derived a multivariable, weighted risk formula for clinical use. One-year survival from the date of enrollment was 91.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.9 to 92.1). In a multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazards, variables independently associated with increased mortality included pulmonary vascular resistance >32 Wood units (hazard ratio [HR], 4.1; 95% CI, 2.0 to 8.3), PAH associated with portal hypertension (HR, 3.6; 95% CI, 2.4 to 5.4), modified New York Heart Association/World Health Organization functional class IV (HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.2 to 4.4), men >60 years of age (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6 to 3.0), and family history of PAH (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2 to 4.0). Renal insufficiency, PAH associated with connective tissue disease, functional class III, mean right atrial pressure, resting systolic blood pressure and heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide, percent predicted carbon monoxide diffusing capacity, and pericardial effusion on echocardiogram all predicted mortality. Based on these multivariable analyses, a prognostic equation was derived and validated by bootstrapping technique. Conclusions— We identified key predictors of survival based on the patient’s most recent evaluation and formulated a contemporary prognostic equation. Use of this tool may allow the individualization and optimization of therapeutic strategies. Serial follow-up and reassessment are warranted. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00370214.