Mehrara, Babak J.

ImportanceBreast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL) is a common complication of axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) but can also develop after sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). Several models have been developed to predict the risk of disease development before and after surgery; however, these models have shortcomings that include the omission of race, inclusion of variables that are not readily available to patients, low sensitivity or specificity, and lack of risk assessment for patients treated with SLNB.ObjectiveTo create simple and accurate prediction models for BCRL that can be used to estimate preoperative or postoperative risk.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsIn this prognostic study, women with breast cancer who underwent ALND or SLNB from 1999 to 2020 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and the Mayo Clinic were included. Data were analyzed from September to December 2022.Main Outcomes and MeasuresDiagnosis of lymphedema based on measurements. Two predictive models were formulated via logistic regression: a preoperative model (model 1) and a postoperative model (model 2). Model 1 was externally validated using a cohort of 34 438 patients with an International Classification of Diseases diagnosis of breast cancer.ResultsOf 1882 included patients, all were female, and the mean (SD) age was 55.6 (12.2) years; 80 patients (4.3%) were Asian, 190 (10.1%) were Black, 1558 (82.8%) were White, and 54 (2.9%) were another race (including American Indian and Alaska Native, other race, patient refused to disclose, or unknown). A total of 218 patients (11.6%) were diagnosed with BCRL at a mean (SD) follow-up of 3.9 (1.8) years. The BCRL rate was significantly higher among Black women (42 of 190 [22.1%]) compared with all other races (Asian, 10 of 80 [12.5%]; White, 158 of 1558 [10.1%]; other race, 8 of 54 [14.8%]; P < .001). Model 1 included age, weight, height, race, ALND/SLNB status, any radiation therapy, and any chemotherapy. Model 2 included age, weight, race, ALND/SLNB status, any chemotherapy, and patient-reported arm swelling. Accuracy was 73.0% for model 1 (sensitivity, 76.6%; specificity, 72.5%; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.75-0.81) at a cutoff of 0.18, and accuracy was 81.1% for model 2 (sensitivity, 78.0%; specificity, 81.5%; AUC, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.88) at a cutoff of 0.10. Both models demonstrated high AUCs on external (model 1: 0.75; 95% CI, 0.74-0.76) or internal (model 2: 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.85) validation.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this study, preoperative and postoperative prediction models for BCRL were highly accurate and clinically relevant tools comprised of accessible inputs and underscored the effects of racial differences on BCRL risk. The preoperative model identified high-risk patients who require close monitoring or preventative measures. The postoperative model can be used for screening of high-risk patients, thus decreasing the need for frequent clinic visits and arm volume measurements.

Abstract Background Little is known about the risk factors associated with complications after free flap scalp reconstruction. The purpose of this study was to identify patient, scalp defect, and flap characteristics associated with increased risk of surgical complications. Methods A retrospective study was performed of free-flap scalp reconstruction in oncologic patients at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center from 2002 to 2017. Data collection included patient, defect, flap, and complication characteristics. Complications were classified into major, defined as complications requiring surgical intervention, and minor, defined as complications requiring conservative treatment. Risk factors and outcome variables were compared using chi-square with Fisher's exact test. Results A total of 63 free flaps to the scalp in 58 patients were performed; average follow-up was 3.5 years. Most flaps were muscle-only or musculocutaneous. One-third of patients with free flaps experienced complications (n = 21, 15 major and 6 minor). Examining risk factors for complications, patients with cardiovascular disease were nearly three times more likely to have suffered a major complication than patients without cardiovascular disease (36.7 vs. 12.1%, p = 0.04). This was the only significant risk factor noted. Perioperative radiotherapy, prior scalp surgery, flap type, and recipient vessel selection were found to be nonsignificant risk factors. Conclusion Cardiovascular disease may be a significant marker of risk for major complications in patients undergoing free-flap reconstruction of the scalp. This information should be used to help guide perioperative counseling and decision making in this challenging patient population.