Hayat, Umar

ABSTRACTObjectiveAlcohol‐related liver disease (ALD) has emerged as a significant public health concern, particularly among younger populations. ALD remains the leading cause of alcohol‐attributable deaths. This study aims to forecast ALD mortality trends up to 2030, focusing on individuals under 55 years.MethodsWe utilized data from the CDC WONDER database (1999–2022) to examine ALD‐related deaths, identified by ICD‐10 codes (K70.0–K70.9). Crude mortality rates (CMRs) per 100 000 were analyzed and temporal trends were assessed using annual and average annual percent changes (APC/AAPC) with empirical quantile confidence intervals. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to project mortality rates until 2030, validated through time series cross‐validation.ResultsFrom 1999 to 2022, there were 181 862 ALD‐related deaths among individuals under 55, with mortality rates increasing from 3.9 per 100 000 in 1999 to 9.7 per 100 000 in 2022 (AAPC 4.66%, 95% CI: 3.90%–5.86%). Projections suggest rates will continue to rise, reaching 14.4 per 100 000 by 2030. From 1999 to 2022, the 25–34 age group experienced the highest increase, with an AAPC of 10.27% (95% CI: 9.19%–11.35%), while the 35–44 and 45–54 age groups showed more moderate increases, with AAPCs of 5.03% and 4.38%, respectively. Projections indicate an AAPC of 3.86% for ages 25–34, 3.90% for ages 35–44, and 6.17% for ages 45–54 by 2030.ConclusionForecasts indicate a continued rise in ALD mortality among individuals under 55, necessitating immediate public health strategies to mitigate this trend.

INTRODUCTION: Endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) combining endoscopic resection (ER) with endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) or endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) followed by ablation is the standard of care for the treatment of dysplastic Barrett's esophagus (BE). We have previously shown comparable rates of complete remission of intestinal metaplasia (CRIM) with both approaches. However, data comparing recurrence after CRIM are lacking. We compared rates of recurrence after CRIM with both techniques in a multicenter cohort. METHODS: Patients undergoing EET achieving CRIM at 3 academic institutions were included. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted. Outcomes included rates and predictors of any BE and dysplastic BE recurrence in the 2 groups. Cox-proportional hazards models and inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis were used for analysis. RESULTS: A total of 621 patients (514 EMR and 107 ESD) achieving CRIM were included in the recurrence analysis. The incidence of any BE (15.7, 5.7 per 100 patient-years) and dysplastic BE recurrence (7.3, 5.3 per 100 patient-years) were comparable in the EMR and ESD groups, respectively. On multivariable analyses, the chances of BE recurrence were not influenced by ER technique (hazard ratio 0.87; 95% confidence interval 0.51–1.49; P = 0.62), which was also confirmed by IPTW analysis (ESD vs EMR: hazard ratio 0.98; 95% confidence interval 0.56–1.73; P = 0.94). BE length, lesion size, and history of cigarette smoking were independent predictors of BE recurrence. DISCUSSION: Patients with BE dysplasia/neoplasia achieving CRIM, initially treated with EMR/ablation, had comparable recurrence rates to ESD/ablation. Randomized trials are needed to confirm these outcomes between the 2 ER techniques.

Summary Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) develops in a step-wise manner, from low-grade dysplasia (LGD) to high-grade dysplasia (HGD), and ultimately to invasive EAC. However, there remains diagnostic uncertainty about LGD and its risk of progression to HGD/EAC. The aim is to investigate the role of Ki-67, immune-histochemical marker of proliferation, surface expression in patients with confirmed LGD, and risk stratify progression to HGD/EAC. A retrospective cohort study was conducted. Patients with confirmed LGD and indefinite for dysplasia (IND), with a mean follow-up of ≥1 year, were included. Pathology specimens were stained for Ki-67 and analyzed for evidence of surface expression. Our results reveal that 29% of patients with confirmed LGD who stained positive with Ki-67 progressed to HGD/EAC as opposed to none (0%) of the patients who stained negative, a statistically significant result (P = 0.003). Similarly, specimens from patients with IND were stained and analyzed revealing a nonsignificant trend toward a higher rate of progression for Ki-67 positive cases versus Ki-67 negative, 30% versus 21%, respectively. Ki-67 expression by itself can identify patients with LGD at a high risk of progression.