Tvilsted, Søren

Survival scores facilitate personalized cancer treatment. Due to demographic changes, very elderly patients are more prevalent than in the past. A score was developed in 94 patients aged ≥ 80 years undergoing whole-brain radiotherapy for brain metastases. Dose fractionation, treatment period, age, sex, performance score (ECOG-PS), tumor type, count of lesions, metastases outside the brain, and interval tumor diagnosis to radiotherapy were retrospectively evaluated. Independent predictors of survival were used for the score. Based on individual scoring points obtained from 3-month survival rates, prognostic groups were designed. Additionally, the score was compared to an existing tool developed in patients ≥ 65 years. ECOG-PS, count of lesions, and extra-cranial metastases were independent prognostic factors. Three groups were created (7, 10, and 13–16 points) with 3-month survival of 6%, 25%, and 67% (p < 0.001), respectively. Positive predictive values (PPVs) regarding death ≤ 3 and survival ≥ 3 months were 94% and 67% (new score) vs. 96% and 48% (existing tool), respectively. PPVs for survival ≥1 and ≥2 months were 88% and 79% vs. 63% and 58%, respectively. Both tools were accurate in predicting death ≤2, ≤3, and ≤6 months. The new score was more precise regarding death ≤1 month and survival (all time periods) and appeared preferable. However, it still needs to be validated.

Survival scores are important for personalized treatment of bone metastases. Elderly patients are considered a separate group. Therefore, a specific score was developed for these patients. Elderly patients (≥65 years) irradiated for bone metastases were randomly assigned to the test (n = 174) or validation (n = 174) cohorts. Thirteen factors were retrospectively analyzed for survival. Factors showing significance (p < 0.05) or a trend (p < 0.06) in the multivariate analysis were used for the score. Based on 6-month survival rates, prognostic groups were formed. The score was compared to an existing tool developed in patients of any age. In the multivariate analysis, performance score, tumor type, and visceral metastases showed significance and gender was a trend. Three groups were designed (17, 18–25 and 27–28 points) with 6-month survival rates of 0%, 51%, and 100%. In the validation cohort, these rates were 9%, 55%, and 86%. Comparisons of prognostic groups between both cohorts did not reveal significant differences. In the test cohort, positive predictive values regarding death ≤6 and survival ≥6 months were 100% with the new score vs. 80% and 88% with the existing tool. The new score was more accurate demonstrating the importance of specific scores for elderly patients.