Pacheco, Jorge M.

Abstract Background: The advent of high-dose therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (HDT-ASCT) has significantly improved response rates and survival for patients with multiple myeloma (MM). However this form of therapy is potentially toxic and does not cure patients from their disease. The response to HDT-ASCT is variable and approximately 40% of patients achieve a complete response (CR). Patients with a CR have a significantly improved time to progression (TTP) compared to patients who do not achieve CR (nCR). Optimal timing of HDT-ASCT and considerations of the relapse kinetics may assist treatment planning for this disease. We analyzed myeloma tumor burden and kinetics before and after HDT-ASCT in order to define optimal timing of this therapy for the individual patient. Patients and Methods: A cohort of 265 patients with MM who underwent HDT-ASCT at Mayo Clinic Rochester was studied. Disease burden before and after HDT-ASCT was estimated from serial M-spike measurements. The estimated tumor burden data were fitted to the Gompertz function and its parameters alpha and beta estimated using a non-linear least squares method. Cohorts of patients with CR and nCR were studied separately. Functions that coupled disease burden and kinetics with TTP were derived and used to determine the optimal timing of single and tandem transplantation. Results: The Gompertz parameters alpha and beta for patients who achieved CR and for those who did not achieve CR with HDT were determined. Our values were lower than those of Sullivan and Salmon although the ratio of alpha/beta was of a similar order (implying the same carrying capacity). Using the idealized Gompertz parameters, simulations of single versus tandem transplants were performed. Our model predicts that tandem transplantation increases CR rate by approximately 10%. When the time between transplants was studied as a variable, our model suggests that the optimal time between transplants is 7 months. Conclusions: Our modeling provides a theoretical understanding of tumor burden and kinetics for patients with MM who undergo HDT-ASCT. Patients who achieve CR with the first episode of HDT-ASCT should not be routinely offered tandem transplantation but carefully monitored and re-transplanted at an optimal disease burden. If CR is not achieved with a first cycle of HDT-ASCT, the probability of CR after a second trial of HDT is ~10% (similar to that reported by Attal et al 2003) although this depends on the tumor burden before the second transplant. TTP after tandem transplants (with its higher associated mortality) cannot be superior to TTP achieved with optimally timed serial transplants. Individualized HDT-ASCT for patients with MM is possible and may improve results.

Abstract Background: High dose therapy with autologous stem cell transplantation (HDT-ASCT) has prolonged survival in patients with multiple myeloma. Patients who achieve a complete response (CR) benefit the most from this form of therapy. Thus, achieving a CR is an important goal of therapy and it will be beneficial if the probability of achieving CR can be determined for any patient before transplant. Patients and Methods: A large cohort of patients with myeloma who received HDT-ASCT at Mayo Clinic Rochester was studied. The impact of various demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics relating to the patients and their disease acquired were studied for their impact on response to HDT-ASCT, especially CR. Patients with a serum M-protein <0.1g/dL were excluded. Response definitions were as defined by established criteria. Survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method while univariate and multivariate analyses were performed with the proportional hazards method. We utilized knowledge of the rate of M-protein production by myeloma cells together with the clearance of the protein to estimate the pre-transplant disease burden. Results: We studied 224 patients with a median age of 56.5 years (32.6 – 71). Patients were transplanted a median of 8.7 months after diagnosis. Almost all patients had a response to HDT-ASCT and 78 (35%) achieved a CR. Those patients who achieved a CR had a longer time to progression (TTP) compared to those who did not achieve CR (Figure 1). The cohort was thus divided into two groups: patients who achieved CR and those that did not. The clinical and laboratory characteristics of the two groups were compared. Among the pre-transplant parameters tested, only the size of the serum M-spike was a predictor for CR (p<0.0001). A simple function that describes the probability of achieving CR based on the serum M-spike before HDT-ASCT is described. The estimated rate of tumor re-growth after HDT-ASCT in patients who obtain a CR and in patients who only get a partial response are presented. Conclusions: The pre-transplant disease burden in myeloma is the main determinant of response to HDT-ASCT. The individual probability of achieving CR can be estimated from simple clinical parameters providing a quantitative risk assessment prior to such a high-risk procedure. There is significant expansion of myeloma cells after HDT-ASCT. The design of clinical trials may benefit from knowledge of the kinetic aspects of the disease. Figure Figure

Abstract Abstract 1236 Background: Although most patients with early chronic phase CML (ECP-CML) respond to TKI therapy, the depth and speed of response can be different. While it is known that both the Sokal and Hasford scores have an impact on the speed and depth of response, no mechanisms explaining these differences have been identified. Objective: To provide explanations for any potential differences in CML response as a function of the Sokal and Hasford score using a computational model. Methods: We utilize a computational model of hematopoiesis and CML, together with serial quantitative data of disease burden under nilotinib therapy to determine the fraction of CML cells responding to therapy (z) and the impact of TKI on the self-renewal probability of CML cells (e) under therapy. Patients were stratified at diagnosis on both the Sokal and Hasford scoring system. A non-linear least squares method was used to separately fit the model to serial Q-RT-PCR data for BCR-ABL in response to therapy in each cohort. Results: A total of 73 patients were studied. The number of patients with low, intermediate and high risk disease based on the Sokal score was 34, 29 and 10 respectively while the respective distribution of patients on the Hasford score was 29, 43 and 1. Although the impact of nilotinib on the self-renewal probability of CML progenitor cells was similar across all risk groups (there were substantial differences in the fraction of cells responding to therapy: For the Sokal groups, the fraction of cells (z) responding to therapy decreased from 0.09 to 0.086 and 0.069 respectively for low, intermediate and high risk disease. In the case of the Hasford score, the difference in z between low and intermediate categories becomes more pronounced, i.e. z is 0.093 for low and 0.08 for intermediate risk disease. Conclusions: The risk score at diagnosis of CML has a direct impact on the dynamics of response to TKI therapy. Patients with a lower risk score respond faster to the same therapy when compared to high risk patients. The impact of TKI on the self renewal of CML cells appears to be the same regardless of the risk score but the fraction of cells responding decreases as the risk score increases. This suggests that subclones that may be less sensitive to TKI therapy may be emerging. Strategies that increase the fraction of cells responding to therapy in patients with higher risk disease may be indicated. Disclosures: Rosti: Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Bristol Myers Squibb: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Roche: Speakers Bureau.

The accumulation of somatic mutations, to which the cellular genome is permanently exposed, often leads to cancer. Analysis of any tumour shows that, besides the malignant cells, one finds other ‘supporting’ cells such as fibroblasts, immune cells of various types and even blood vessels. Together, these cells generate the microenvironment that enables the malignant cell population to grow and ultimately lead to disease. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of tumour growth and response to therapy is incomplete unless the interactions between the malignant cells and normal cells are investigated in the environment in which they take place. The complex interactions between cells in such an ecosystem result from the exchange of information in the form of cytokines- and adhesion-dependent interactions. Such processes impose costs and benefits to the participating cells that may be conveniently recast in the form of a game pay-off matrix. As a result, tumour progression and dynamics can be described in terms of evolutionary game theory (EGT), which provides a convenient framework in which to capture the frequency-dependent nature of ecosystem dynamics. Here, we provide a tutorial review of the central aspects of EGT, establishing a relation with the problem of cancer. Along the way, we also digress on fitness and of ways to compute it. Subsequently, we show how EGT can be applied to the study of the various manifestations and dynamics of multiple myeloma bone disease and its preceding condition known as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance. We translate the complex biochemical signals into costs and benefits of different cell types, thus defining a game pay-off matrix. Then we use the well-known properties of the EGT equations to reduce the number of core parameters that characterize disease evolution. Finally, we provide an interpretation of these core parameters in terms of what their function is in the ecosystem we are describing and generate predictions on the type and timing of interventions that can alter the natural history of these two conditions.

Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria is an acquired hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) disorder characterized by the partial or complete deficiency of glycosyl-phosphatidylinositol (GPI)-linked membrane proteins, which leads to intravascular hemolysis. A loss of function mutation in the PIG-A gene, required for GPI biosynthesis, explains how the deficiency of many membrane proteins can result from a single genetic event. However, to date the mechanism of expansion of the GPI − clone has not been fully understood. Two hypotheses have been proposed: A selective advantage of GPI − cells because of a second mutation or a conditional growth advantage of GPI − cells in the presence of an immune attack on normal (GPI + ) HSCs. Here, we explore a third possibility, whereby the PNH clone does not have a selective advantage. Simulations in a large virtual population accurately reproduce the known incidence of the disease; and the fit is optimized when the number of stem cells is decreased, reflecting a component of bone marrow failure in PNH. The model also accounts for the occurrence of spontaneous cure in PNH, consequent on clonal extinction. Thus, a clonal advantage may not be always necessary to explain clonal expansion in PNH.

Haemopoiesis is a fundamental physiologic process found in many animals. Among mammals, the diversity in size and function required suitable adaptations of this process. In this work, we use allometric principles to determine whether this required a change in the basic architecture of haemopoiesis. We show that it is possible to express both the number and rate with which haemopoietic stem cells replicate as well as total marrow output across all mammals as a function of adult mass. This unified view, which is compatible with the existing data, suggests that there was no need for major adaptations in the architecture of haemopoiesis across mammals.

Purpose High-dose therapy with autologous stem-cell transplantation (HDT-ASCT) is now almost standard therapy for many patients with multiple myeloma, partly because of higher complete response (CR) rates. Some studies suggest that tandem transplantation gives superior results. The aim of this study was to determine whether the depth of the response to HDT-ASCT leads to an improvement in time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS). We hypothesized that patients with CR before HDT-ASCT (BCR) will have their disease burden reduced further and experience a longer TTP and perhaps OS. Patients and Methods All patients who achieved BCR or CR after HDT-ASCT (ACR) were identified. The characteristics and long-term outcome of these patients were evaluated. Results We identified 14 patients with BCR and 103 patients with ACR who were treated in similar fashion. The patients have been followed for more than 6 years, and the median for OS has not been reached (60-month survival, 55% for BCR and 63% for ACR; P = .83). The median TTP was 43 months for BCR and 34 months for ACR (P = .39). Conclusion The depth of the response in myeloma does not necessarily lead to an improvement in TTP and OS. Tumor dynamics considerations show that the yield from sequential cycles of chemotherapy decreases. Patients who achieve CR with the first transplant can be safely observed without jeopardizing OS.

Abstract The pool of hematopoietic stem cells that actively contributes to hematopoiesis is small, and the cells replicate slowly. Patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria invariably have a mutation in the PIG-A gene, and many have more than one clone of PIG-A mutated cells. Typically there is a dominant clone and a smaller second clone. By using a combination of stochastic dynamics and models of hematopoiesis, we show that it is very unlikely that more than one PIG-A mutated clone arises at the level of the hematopoietic stem cells. More likely, the smaller clone develops in the progenitor cell pool that would be expected to contribute to hematopoiesis for a shorter period of time. We provide estimates for the duration of these contributions and testable hypotheses that can shed important insights on this acquired hematopoietic stem cell disorder. Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest is found at the end of this article.

AbstractHematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) can both self renew and differentiate into precursors of all types of blood cells. HSCs are divided into an active pool and a quiescent reserve. Cells selected for the active pool contribute to hematopoiesis for many years. Mutations in HSCs can lead to neoplasms such as chronic myeloid leukemia, although the risk of neoplastic HSC disorders varies across mammals. We use allometric scaling relations combined with mutation-selection evolutionary dynamics to determine which mammalian species is most resistant to HSC disorders. We find that the advantage of large mammals at escaping the selective pressure of cancer cells is insufficient to overcome the increased risk of acquiring mutations. Hence, mutation dominates, which favors smaller stem-cell pools and, consequently, smaller mammals, since these minimize the development of mutations in the active stem-cell pool. Consequently, the smaller the active stem-cell pools, the better.

Recently, the size of the active stem cell pool has been predicted to scale allometrically with the adult mass of mammalian species with a 3/4 power exponent, similar to what has been found to occur for the resting metabolic rate across species. Here we investigate the allometric scaling of human haemopoietic stem cells (HSCs) during ontogenic growth and predict a linear scaling with body mass. We also investigate the allometric scaling of resting metabolic rate during growth in humans and find a linear scaling with mass similar to that of the haemopoietic stem cell pool. Our findings suggest a common underlying organizational principle determining the linear scaling of both the stem cell pool and resting metabolic rate with mass during ontogenic growth within the human species, combined with a 3/4 scaling with adult mass across mammalian species. It is possible that such common principles remain valid for haemopoiesis in other mammalian species.