Foon, Kenneth A.

Abstract Observational studies and stand-alone trials indicate that patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) who experience disease progression within 24 months of front-line chemoimmunotherapy (POD24), have poor outcomes. We performed a pooled analysis of 13 randomized clinical trials of patients with FL in the pre- and postrituximab eras to identify clinical factors that predict POD24. Logistic regression models evaluated the association between clinical factors and POD24. Cox regression evaluated the association between POD24 as a time-dependent factor and subsequent overall survival (OS). A landmark analysis evaluated the association of POD24 with OS for the subset of patients who were alive at 24 months after trial registration. Patients without progression at 24 months at baseline had favorable performance status (PS), limited-stage (I/II) disease, low-risk FL International Prognostic Index (FLIPI) score, normal baseline hemoglobin, and normal baseline β2 microglobulin (B2M) level. In a multivariable logistic regression model, male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.30), PS ≥2 (OR, 1.63), B2M (≥3 mg/L; OR, 1.43), and high-risk FLIPI score (3-5; OR, 3.14) were associated with increased risk of progression before 24 months. In the time-dependent Cox model and the 24-month landmark analysis, POD24 was associated with poor subsequent OS (hazard ratio, 4.85 and 3.06, respectively). This is the largest pooled analysis of clinical trials data validating POD24 as a robust indicator of poor FL survival and identified clinical predictors of early death and progression that can aid in building comprehensive prognostic models incorporating clinical and molecular predictors of POD24.

Introduction: Most patients with newly diagnosed FL treated with rituximab (R) alone or R + chemotherapy will experience prolonged progression-free survival and overall survival (OS), but it remains unclear what factors have the greatest influence on FL-associated and other causes of death in this patient population. We utilized individual patient data from 13 first-line randomized clinical trials from the FLASH database to perform a comprehensive multistate survival analysis to examine and quantify the relationships between clinical characteristics, treatment response, and early, intermediate, and late FL outcomes. Methods: The multistate survival analysis model defined states for "Alive after beginning Induction Treatment (TX)", "Alive after beginning Maintenance TX", "Death due to FL", and "Death from Other Causes" (Figure 1). We used the Aalen-Johansen estimator, a generalization of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, to calculate the likelihood of being in each model state and estimate the course of FL over time. Making no assumptions on the probability distributions and capable of coping with censored observations, the Aalen-Johansen estimator is a convenient and reliable nonparametric estimator for clinical data. Results: Among 7,465 FL patients with median age 56 (range 18-90) years, 49.2% were female; 28.7% Stage I-III, 71.3% Stage IV, and FLIPI was 0-1 (20.0%), 2 (36.8%), ≥ 3 (43.2%). Following initiation of induction treatment, 2-, 5- and 10-year death rates were 1.7%, 3.8%, and 5.8% due to FL, and 0.7%, 2.1%, and 4.8% from other causes (Figure 2). Death rates at 2, 5, and 10 years due to FL and other causes for subgroups based on clinical characteristics and treatment response are shown in Table 1. Notably, patients > 70 years and patients with FLIPI ≥ 3 had worse outcomes and patients achieving CR at 18, 24, and 30 months experienced improved outcomes. Conclusion: This is the largest study using data from randomized trials to quantify the impact of clinical factors on early, intermediate and late mortality by cause of death. We demonstrated that age > 70 years and FLIPI ≥ 3 were linked to increased FL-associated death and response to TX distinguished patients with favorable and poor outcomes. Future analyses should quantify the impact of predictors on the rate/time of FL outcomes in multivariable models. Disclosures Salles: Roche, Janssen, Gilead, Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Educational events; Amgen: Honoraria, Other: Educational events; BMS: Honoraria; Merck: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Novartis, Servier, AbbVie, Karyopharm, Kite, MorphoSys: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Educational events; Epizyme: Consultancy, Honoraria; Autolus: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Educational events. Hoster:Janssen: Research Funding; Roche Pharma AG: Other: Travel Support. Hiddemann:Bayer: Research Funding; Gilead: Consultancy, Honoraria; Vector Therapeutics: Consultancy, Honoraria; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Roche: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria. Herold:Roche: Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria; Gilead: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria. Morschhauser:Servier: Consultancy; Gilead: Consultancy; Janssen: Honoraria; Roche/Genentech: Consultancy; BMS: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria. Rummel:Roche Pharma AG: Honoraria, Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria; Sandoz: Honoraria. Kimby:AbbVie,: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Roche: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Jansen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Gilead: Other: educational lectures. Vitolo:Abbvie: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Kite: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Gilead: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau; Juno Therapeutics: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; F. Hoffmann-La Roche: Speakers Bureau; Novartis: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Speakers Bureau. Gyan:Pfizer: Honoraria. Ladetto:Celgene: Honoraria; Roche: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria; Abbvie: Honoraria; Acerta: Honoraria; Sandoz: Honoraria. Nielsen:F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd: Employment, Equity Ownership. Flowers:AstraZeneca: Consultancy; BeiGene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group: Research Funding; Burroughs Wellcome Fund: Research Funding; AbbVie: Consultancy, Research Funding; Optimum Rx: Consultancy; V Foundation: Research Funding; Pharmacyclics/Janssen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Bayer: Consultancy; Gilead: Consultancy, Research Funding; TG Therapeutics: Research Funding; Denovo Biopharma: Consultancy; Acerta: Research Funding; National Cancer Institute: Research Funding; Millenium/Takeda: Research Funding; Genentech, Inc./F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd: Consultancy, Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Spectrum: Consultancy;