Lebo, Matthew S.

Testing asymptomatic individuals for unsuspected conditions is not new to the medical and public health communities and protocols to develop screening tests are well-established. However, the application of screening principles to inherited diseases presents unique challenges. Unlike most screening tests, the natural history and disease prevalence of most rare inherited diseases in an unselected population are unknown. It is difficult or impossible to obtain a “truth set” cohort for clinical validation studies. As a result, it is not possible to accurately calculate clinical positive and negative predictive values for “likely pathogenic” genetic variants, which are commonly returned in genetic screening assays. In addition, many of the genetic conditions included in screening panels do not have clinical confirmatory tests. All of these elements are typically required to justify the development of a screening test, according to the World Health Organization screening principles. Nevertheless, as the cost of DNA sequencing continues to fall, more individuals are opting to undergo genomic testing in the absence of a clinical indication. Despite the challenges, reasonable estimates can be deduced and used to inform test design strategies. Here, we review test design principles and apply them to genetic screening.

Testing asymptomatic individuals for unsuspected conditions is not new to the medical and public health communities and protocols to develop screening tests are well-established. However, the application of screening principles to inherited diseases presents unique challenges. Unlike most screening tests, the natural history and disease prevalence of most rare inherited diseases in an unselected population are unknown. It is difficult or impossible to obtain a “truth set” cohort for clinical validation studies. As a result, it is not possible to accurately calculate clinical positive and negative predictive values for “likely pathogenic” genetic variants, which are commonly returned in genetic screening assays. In addition, many of the genetic conditions included in screening panels do not have clinical confirmatory tests. All of these elements are typically required to justify the development of a screening test, according to the World Health Organization screening principles. Nevertheless, as the cost of DNA sequencing continues to fall, more individuals are opting to undergo genomic testing in the absence of a clinical indication. Despite the challenges, reasonable estimates can be deduced and used to inform test design strategies. Here, we review test design principles and apply them to genetic screening.

Testing asymptomatic individuals for unsuspected conditions is not new to the medical and public health communities and protocols to develop screening tests are well-established. However, the application of screening principles to inherited diseases presents unique challenges. Unlike most screening tests, the natural history and disease prevalence of most rare inherited diseases in an unselected population are unknown. It is difficult or impossible to obtain a “truth set” cohort for clinical validation studies. As a result, it is not possible to accurately calculate clinical positive and negative predictive values for “likely pathogenic” genetic variants, which are commonly returned in genetic screening assays. In addition, many of the genetic conditions included in screening panels do not have clinical confirmatory tests. All of these elements are typically required to justify the development of a screening test, according to the World Health Organization screening principles. Nevertheless, as the cost of DNA sequencing continues to fall, more individuals are opting to undergo genomic testing in the absence of a clinical indication. Despite the challenges, reasonable estimates can be deduced and used to inform test design strategies. Here, we review test design principles and apply them to genetic screening.

As the cost of DNA sequencing continues to fall, more individuals are opting to undergo genomic testing in the absence of a clinical indication. Testing asymptomatic individuals for unsuspected conditions is not new to the medical and public health communities. However, the application of screening principles to inherited diseases with unknown prevalence in an unselected (low-risk) test population raises unique challenges. This paper examines the effect of disease prevalence on the positive predictive value of a test result. Many inherited conditions have very low prevalence in an unselected population, which increases the probability that some likely pathogenic variants may be false positives. In situations where the adverse impact of a false positive result is significant, laboratories should address this issue by either increasing the interpretive specificity of the test, performing a clinical confirmatory test to establish the presence of disease, or restricting the test to a population with increased disease prevalence. Here, we review the statistical concepts relevant to screening tests, apply these concepts to genetic disease screening, create a model to estimate prevalence and positive predictive value, and provide a framework for further discussion.