Citations

Abstract Despite growing interest in AI for pancreatic cyst management, no prior study has systematically investigated how lesion characteristics influence model behavior or provided a comprehensive explainability analysis in IPMN malignancy risk stratification. We present the first multi-center study integrating explainable AI with uncertainty quantification to evaluate how cyst type, size, and location affect deep learning performance in IPMN malignancy prediction. Our retrospective study analyzed 170 IPMNs from seven centers using a radiomics-deep learning fusion model. Cases were stratified by dysplasia grade, IPMN type, size, and location; with model interpretability assessed using SHAP, LIME, Grad-CAM, and uncertainty quantification. Overall accuracy was 67.1%, with model uncertainty lower for correct versus incorrect predictions (0.72 vs 0.78, p < 0.001). On subgroup analysis: Low-Risk lesion accuracy exceeded High-Risk (81.3% vs. 42.9%, p < 0.001), BD accuracy was inversely correlated with cyst size while MD remained stable, and body and whole-pancreas cysts stratified more accurately than tail cysts (77.8%, 76.6% vs. 47.8%). AI models face significant, previously uncharacterized performance drops when evaluating complex high-risk IPMNs. Our study shows that integrating uncertainty quantification can successfully flag unreliable predictions, enabling a selective-prediction framework where clinicians can confidently rely on AI for low-risk, low-uncertainty lesions while deferring high-uncertainty cases to expert review.

Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) represent a spectrum of non-neoplasms and neoplasms with varying malignant potential, posing significant challenges in diagnosis and management. While some PCLs are precursors to pancreatic cancer, others remain benign, necessitating accurate differentiation for optimal patient care. Conventional approaches to PCL management rely heavily on radiographic imaging, and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) guided fine-needle aspiration (FNA), coupled with clinical and biochemical data. However, the observer-dependent nature of image interpretation and the complex morphology of PCLs can lead to diagnostic uncertainty and variability in patient management strategies. This review critically evaluates current PCL diagnosis and surveillance practices, showing features of the different lesions and highlighting the potential limitations of conventional methods. We then explore the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to transform PCL management. AI-driven strategies, including deep learning algorithms for automated pancreas and lesion segmentation, and radiomics for analyzing heterogeneity, can improve diagnostic accuracy and risk stratification. These advanced techniques can provide more objective and reproducible assessments, aiding clinicians in decision-making regarding follow-up intervals and surgical interventions. Early results suggest that AI-driven methods can significantly improve patient outcomes by enabling earlier detection of high-risk lesions and reducing unnecessary procedures for benign cysts. Finally, this review emphasizes that AI-driven approaches could potentially reshape the landscape of PCL management, ultimately leading to improved pancreatic cancer prevention.