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Importance Annual rates of first intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) from unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) are often quoted as 2% to 4% in clinical practice. Precise estimates and risk factors are unavailable to inform treatment decisions. Objective To provide estimates of rates and risk factors for first ICH in a large cohort study of unruptured brain AVMs. Design, Setting, and Participants The Multicenter Arteriovenous Malformation Research Study (MARS) included data from 9 cohorts, each contributing 100 or more unruptured brain AVMs. The study was conducted from 2017 to 2023 with retrospective and prospective data collection for existing cohorts and/or new recruitment. This was an international study (2 population-based and 7 referral-based cohorts) that included participants diagnosed with an unruptured brain AVM. Exposures Demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics. Main Outcome and Measure The primary outcome was time to first ICH after diagnosis of unruptured brain AVM. Data were collected using standardized definitions; missing data were imputed. Cox regression analysis was performed, censoring at first brain AVM treatment, death, or last visit, and allowing baseline hazards to vary by cohort. Results A total of 3225 individuals were eligible for participation in this study. After 195 exclusions, 3030 participants (median [IQR] age, 38 [25-50] years; 1524 female [50.3%]) were included. Among 2989 participants with unruptured brain AVMs, 1333 (45%) presented with seizure. The median (IQR) maximal brain AVM diameter was 3.1 (2.2-4.4) cm, 248 of 2466 AVMs (10%) had exclusively deep venous drainage, 297 of 2690 (11%) were in supratentorial deep or cerebellar locations, and 457 of 2440 (19%) had associated arterial aneurysms. First ICH occurred in 159 participants over 11 339 person-years of follow-up for an ICH rate of 1.40 (95% CI, 1.20-1.64) per 100 person-years. Significant independent risk factors included (1) increasing age category at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.53-1.41 for those aged 20 to 39 years; HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.74-2.04 for those aged 40 to 59 years; and HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.14-3.57 for those aged 60 years vs younger than 20 years; P = .008), (2) presence of associated aneurysms (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06-2.59; P = .03), and (3) cerebellar or supratentorial deep location (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.16-3.00; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance The annual ICH rate from unruptured brain AVM was lower than that commonly cited in clinical practice. Increasing age, associated arterial aneurysms, and cerebellar or supratentorial deep brain AVM location were associated with risk of first ICH. These results may be used to counsel patients about the natural history of unruptured brain AVMs.

Features of new bleeding on conventional imaging in cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) often disappear after several weeks, yet the risk of rebleeding persists long thereafter. Increases in mean lesional quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) ≥ 6% on MRI during 1 year of prospective surveillance have been associated with new symptomatic hemorrhage (SH) during that period. The authors hypothesized that QSM at a single time point reflects features of hemorrhage in the prior year or potential bleeding in the subsequent year. Twenty-eight features were extracted from 265 QSM acquisitions in 120 patients enrolled in a prospective trial readiness project, and machine learning methods examined associations with SH and biomarker bleed (QSM increase ≥ 6%) in prior and subsequent years. QSM features including sum variance, variance, and correlation had lower average values in lesions with SH in the prior year (p < 0.05, false discovery rate corrected). A support-vector machine classifier recurrently selected sum average, mean lesional QSM, sphericity, and margin sharpness features to distinguish biomarker bleeds in the prior year (area under the curve = 0.61, 95% CI 0.52–0.70; p = 0.02). No QSM features were associated with a subsequent bleed. These results provide proof of concept that machine learning may derive features of QSM reflecting prior hemorrhagic activity, meriting further investigation. Clinical trial registration no.: NCT03652181 ( ClinicalTrials.gov )

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Despite many publications about cavernous malformations (CMs), controversy remains regarding diagnostic and management strategies. To update evidence-based guidelines for the clinical management of brain and spinal cord CMs. METHODS: The Alliance to Cure CMs, the patient support group in the United States advocating on behalf of patients and research in CM, convened a multidisciplinary writing group comprising expert CM clinicians to help summarize the existing literature related to the clinical care of CM, focusing on 5 topics: (1) epidemiology and natural history, (2) genetic testing and counseling, (3) diagnostic criteria and imaging standards, (4) neurosurgical considerations, and (5) neurological considerations. Building on prior evidence-based recommendations reflecting literature review through October 2014, the group conducted a systematic review of the more recent literature, identified references for mandatory citation, rated evidence, developed recommendations, and established consensus according to a prespecified protocol. Finally, the writing group outlined remaining knowledge gaps and controversies to guide future research. RESULTS: From 2672 publications published between October 1, 2014, and March 15, 2023, and meeting key word criteria, 234 were selected based on prearticulated criteria for mandatory consideration in evidence-based recommendations. Topic authors used these and other supporting references to summarize current knowledge and arrive at 53 management recommendations, with unanimous consensus based on a Delphi process. These were rated by class (strength of recommendation) and level (quality of evidence) per the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association criteria. Eighteen recommendations were class 1 (34%), class 2 in 31 (58%), and class 3 in 4 (8%). Three were level A (6%), 19 (36%) were level B, and 31 (58%) were level C. CONCLUSION: Current evidence supports prior and new recommendations for the management of CMs, but many reflect moderate classes and low levels, mandating further research to better inform clinical practice.

Introduction and Hypothesis: New bleeding in cerebral cavernous malformations (CCM) heralds increased risk of future hemorrhage for several years, yet conventional imaging only detects new bleeding that occurred in the prior weeks. A biomarker of hemorrhage could help identifying high risk lesions. An increase of mean lesional quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) ≥6% on MRI has been adjudicated as reflecting new bleeding in CCM during longitudinal follow-up. However, mean lesional QSM from a single acquisition could not diagnose or prognosticate a bleed. We hypothesize that machine learning (ML) may identify diagnostic and prognostic features of bleeding within QSM maps at a single point in time. Material and Methods: Two hundred and sixty-five QSM maps of CCM lesions were acquired in 120 patients enrolled in National Institute of Health (NIH) multisite trial readiness project (NCT03652181). Each map was classified (Yes/No) in association with symptomatic hemorrhage (SH) and/or biomarker event with QSM increase ≥6% in the prior (diagnostic association) and subsequent (prognostic association) year. Twenty-eight features were extracted including 14 texture, 5 first-order statistical, as well as 3 size, shape, and morphological. Five-fold cross-validation was conducted on a support-vector machine (SVM) with linear stepwise kernel for both diagnostic and prognostic associations. Performance of individual features and composite classifiers was evaluated using student t-test ( p <0.05) with Bonferroni-correction and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, area under the curve (AUC). Results: Lesions with SH in the prior year had lower average values for sum variance (AUC=0.79, p<0.001), variance (AUC=0.79, p<0.001), and correlation (AUC=0.71, p=0.004) as compared to lesions without SH. The SVM classification method tasked with distinguishing lesions with mean QSM increase ≥6% in the prior year included recurrent selection of sum average, mean, sphericity and margin sharpness, yielding an AUC of 0.61 (p=0.02). In the prognostic cohort, no individual feature nor any SVM classification model was able to distinguish cases with a subsequent clinical bleed or biomarker event. Conclusion: This proof-of-concept suggests that ML may assist in deriving features on QSM maps acquired at a single timepoint, which reflect prior hemorrhagic activity in CCM. Further investigation is planned in larger cohorts and in conjunction with clinical trials of bleeding in CCM.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) and dynamic contrast-enhanced quantitative perfusion (DCEQP) magnetic resonance imaging sequences assessing iron deposition and vascular permeability were previously correlated with new hemorrhage in cerebral cavernous malformations. We assessed their prospective changes in a multisite trial-readiness project. METHODS: Patients with cavernous malformation and symptomatic hemorrhage (SH) in the prior year, without prior or planned lesion resection or irradiation were enrolled. Mean QSM and DCEQP of the SH lesion were acquired at baseline and at 1- and 2-year follow-ups. Sensitivity and specificity of biomarker changes were analyzed in relation to predefined criteria for recurrent SH or asymptomatic change. Sample size calculations for hypothesized therapeutic effects were conducted. RESULTS: We logged 143 QSM and 130 DCEQP paired annual assessments. Annual QSM change was greater in cases with SH than in cases without SH ( P =0.019). Annual QSM increase by ≥6% occurred in 7 of 7 cases (100%) with recurrent SH and in 7 of 10 cases (70%) with asymptomatic change during the same epoch and 3.82× more frequently than clinical events. DCEQP change had lower sensitivity for SH and asymptomatic change than QSM change and greater variance. A trial with the smallest sample size would detect a 30% difference in QSM annual change during 2 years of follow-up in 34 or 42 subjects (1 and 2 tailed, respectively); power, 0.8, α=0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of QSM change is feasible and sensitive to recurrent bleeding in cavernous malformations. Evaluation of an intervention on QSM percent change may be used as a time-averaged difference between 2 arms using a repeated measures analysis. DCEQP change is associated with lesser sensitivity and higher variability than QSM. These results are the basis of an application for certification by the US Food and Drug Administration of QSM as a biomarker of drug effect on bleeding in cavernous malformations. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT03652181.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral cavernous malformation with symptomatic hemorrhage (SH) are targets for novel therapies. A multisite trial-readiness project ( https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT03652181) aimed to identify clinical, imaging, and functional changes in these patients. METHODS: We enrolled adult cerebral cavernous malformation patients from 5 high-volume centers with SH within the prior year and no planned surgery. In addition to clinical and imaging review, we assessed baseline, 1- and 2-year National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, modified Rankin Scale, European Quality of Life 5D-3 L, and patient-reported outcome-measurement information system, Version 2.0. SH and asymptomatic change rates were adjudicated. Changes in functional scores were assessed as a marker for hemorrhage. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-three, 102, and 69 patients completed baseline, 1- and 2-year clinical assessments, respectively. There were 21 SH during 178.3 patient years of follow-up (11.8% per patient year). At baseline, 62.6% and 95.1% of patients had a modified Rankin Scale score of 1 and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of 0 to 4, respectively, which improved to 75.4% ( P =0.03) and 100% ( P =0.06) at 2 years. At baseline, 74.8% had at least one abnormal patient-reported outcome-measurement information system, Version 2.0 domain compared with 61.2% at 2 years ( P =0.004). The most common abnormal European Quality of Life 5D-3 L domains were pain (48.7%), anxiety (41.5%), and participation in usual activities (41.4%). Patients with prospective SH were more likely than those without SH to display functional decline in sleep, fatigue, and social function patient-reported outcome-measurement information system, Version 2.0 domains at 2 years. Other score changes did not differ significantly between groups at 2 years. The sensitivity of scores as an SH marker remained poor at the time interval assessed. CONCLUSIONS: We report SH rate, functional, and patient-reported outcomes in trial-eligible cerebral cavernous malformation with SH patients. Functional outcomes and patient-reported outcomes generally improved over 2 years. No score change was highly sensitive or specific for SH and could not be used as a primary end point in a trial.

Introduction: The long-term effects of interventional treatment (with surgery, stereotactic radiosurgery, or endovascular embolization) for unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (uBAVM) are uncertain. We address this in a large multi-center international cohort study comparing risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in the treated and untreated course of uBAVM patients. Methods: We pooled individual patient data (n=3,291) from 10 cohorts and imputed missing data. Survival analysis was performed from time of uBAVM diagnosis to intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) using Cox models, stratified by cohort, censoring at death or last follow-up, and including BAVM interventional treatment as a time-varying covariate. We tested for an interaction of treatment with follow-up time, then estimated the association of interventional treatment with ICH, adjusting for propensity quintile. Individual treatment propensity scores were calculated using logistic regression with Spetzler-Martin grade, sex, diagnosis age and year, cohort, and presence of presenting symptoms (seizures, headaches, and/or deficits). Results: Median cohort age was 36 years, 48% were female, and 77% received ≥1 treatment modality for uBAVM during follow-up. 373 ICH occurred during 32,054 person-years of follow-up (median=6.6y), for an ICH rate of 1.16 per 100 P-Y. Overall, treatment was not associated with risk of ICH (HR=1.12, 95% CI=0.89-1.51, p=0.33). However, we observed a strong interaction between treatment and follow-up time (p<0.001): between 0-1 year, treatment was associated with higher risk of ICH (HR=3.48, 95% CI: 2.26-5.37, p<0.001); between 1-10 years, we found no association between treatment and risk of ICH (HR=1.02, 95% CI: 0.73-1.45, p=0.87); after 10 years, treatment was associated with a lower risk of ICH (HR=0.46, 95% CI: 0.30-0.70, p<0.001). Survival curves for untreated and treated courses crossed around 17 years. Conclusion: After accounting for treatment propensity for uBAVM, we found an initial increased risk of ICH in the treated relative to untreated course, which continually declined over time with survival curves crossing around 17 years. These results require confirmation in a randomized controlled trial of uBAVM with long-term follow-up.

Background: Cerebral cavernous angiomas with symptomatic hemorrhage (CASH) carry highest rebleed rates and are targeted for novel interventions. A multisite clinical trial readiness project (clinicaltrials.gov NCT03652181) aims to identify clinical and functional changes over time in trial eligible CASH patients. Methods: Adult patients from 5 high volume centers with a CASH in the prior year and no planned surgical intervention were enrolled. In addition to demographic, clinical, and imaging review, patients underwent baseline, 1 year and 2 year NIH-stroke scale (NIHSS), modified Rankin scale (mRS), Euro-QOL 5D-3L (EQ-5D-3L) and EQ VAS (visual analog score), and PROMIS 29 assessments. Recurrent symptomatic hemorrhages (SH) were verified. We assessed the hemorrhage rate, change in scores/scales over time, and determined which scales/scores were most affected in patients with SH. Results: 123 patients completed baseline assessments and were prospectively followed (60.9% female; mean age 44.1 years; 39.1% familial; 41.5% brainstem location). As of reporting date, 89 of 104 (86%) and 58 of 76 (76%) cases have completed assessments. There were 16 SHs during 147 patient-years of follow up (10.9% per patient year). At baseline, 111 (90.2%) of patients had NIHSS 0-2 and 77 (62.6%) patients had mRS baseline 0-1 which improved to 40 (95.2 %) and 43 (75.4%) at 2 years. At baseline, 54 (43.9%) of patients had at least one moderate to severely abnormal PROMIS-29 domain compared to 13 (26.5%) at 2 years. EQ-5D-3L baseline demonstrated a moderate proportion of patients reporting some difficulty with pain (48.8%), anxiety (41.5%), and activity (41.5%) which improved to 28%, 30%, and 34% respectively at 2 years. Patients with a prospective SH were more likely than those without recurrent SH at 2 years to display mild functional decline (0.5 SD) of most PROMIS-29 domains, a mRS of 2 or higher and an abnormal EQ- self-care (P<0.05). Other scales/scores were not significantly different between the groups. Conclusion: We report SH rate and functional outcome at baseline and rates of changes during 2 years in trial eligible CASH patients. The PROMIS-29, mRS, and EQ-self-care domains were most discriminative in patients with recurrent SH. No test was 100% specific.