Citations

Background More than 1.5 million women per year have a benign breast biopsy resulting in concern about their future breast cancer (BC) risk. This study examined the performance of 2 BC risk models that integrate clinical and histologic findings in this population. Methods The BC risk at 5 and 10 years was estimated with the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) and Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer (BBD‐BC) models for women diagnosed with benign breast disease (BBD) at the Mayo Clinic from 1997 to 2001. Women with BBD were eligible for the BBD‐BC model, but the BCSC model also required a screening mammogram. Calibration and discrimination were assessed. Results Fifty‐six cases of BC were diagnosed among the 2142 women with BBD (median age, 50 years) within 5 years (118 were diagnosed within 10 years). The BBD‐BC model had slightly better calibration at 5 years (0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71‐1.21) versus 10 years (0.81; 95% CI, 0.70‐1.00) but similar discrimination in the 2 time periods: 0.68 (95% CI, 0.60‐0.75) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60‐0.71), respectively. In contrast, among the 1089 women with screening mammograms (98 cases of BC within 10 years), the BCSC model had better calibration (0.94; 95% CI, 0.85‐1.43) and discrimination (0.63; 95% CI, 0.56‐0.71) at 10 years versus 5 years (calibration, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.94‐2.25; discrimination, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.46‐0.71) where discrimination was not different from chance. Conclusions The BCSC and BBD‐BC models were validated in the Mayo BBD cohort, although their performance differed by 5‐year risk versus 10‐year risk. Further enhancement of these models is needed to provide accurate BC risk estimates for women with BBD.

Purpose Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have an aggregate increased risk of breast cancer (BC), but existing risk prediction models do not provide accurate individualized estimates of risk in this subset of high-risk women. Here, we used the Mayo benign breast disease cohort to develop and validate a model of BC risk prediction that is specifically for women with AH, which we have designated as AH-BC. Patients and Methods Retrospective cohorts of women age 18 to 85 years with pathologically confirmed benign AH from Rochester, MN, and Nashville, TN, were used for model development and external validation, respectively. Clinical risk factors and histologic features of the tissue biopsy were selected using L1-penalized Cox proportional hazards regression. Identified features were included in a Fine and Gray regression model to estimate BC risk, with death as a competing risk. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed in the model-building set and an external validation set. Results The model-building set consisted of 699 women with AH, 142 of whom developed BC (median follow-up, 8.1 years), and the external validation set consisted of 461 women with 114 later BC events (median follow-up, 11.4 years). The final AH-BC model included three covariates: age at biopsy, age at biopsy squared, and number of foci of AH. At 10 years, the AH-BC model demonstrated good discrimination (0.63 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.70]) and calibration (0.87 [95% CI, 0.66 to 1.24]). In the external validation set, the model showed acceptable discrimination (0.59 [95% CI, 0.51 to 0.67]) and calibration (0.91 [95% CI, 0.65 to 1.42]). Conclusion We have created a new model with which to refine BC risk prediction for women with AH. The AH-BC model demonstrates good discrimination and calibration, and it validates in an external data set.

Abstract The objective of this lecture is to review clinical management of women with the following histologic lesions associated with increased breast cancer risk: flat epithelial atypia (FEA), atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH), atypical lobular hyperplasia (ALH), and lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS). Women found to have one or more of these histologic findings in a benign breast biopsy have an increased risk of developing a future breast cancer. Published data will be reviewed that provides estimates of annual and longterm risk associated with these lesions. In addition, management of these lesions after core biopsy will be discussed, specifically the circumstances when surgical excision is recommended. Medical and surgical options for breast cancer risk reduction will be reviewed, as well as their appropriate clinical indications. Citation Format: Degnim AC. Clinical management of women with increased breast cancer risk based on histologic lesions [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr ES2-2.

Abstract In breast adipose tissue, macrophages that encircle damaged adipocytes form “crown-like structures of breast” (CLS-B). Although CLS-B have been associated with breast cancer, their role in benign breast disease (BBD) and early carcinogenesis is not understood. We evaluated breast biopsies from three age-matched groups (n = 86 each, mean age 55 years), including normal tissue donors of the Susan G. Komen for the Cure Tissue Bank (KTB), and subjects in the Mayo Clinic Benign Breast Disease Cohort who developed cancer (BBD cases) or did not develop cancer (BBD controls, median follow-up 14 years). Biopsies were classified into histologic categories, and CD68-immunostained tissue sections were evaluated for the frequency and density of CLS-B. Our data demonstrate that CLS-B are associated with BBD: CLS-B–positive samples were significantly less frequent among KTB biopsies (3/86, 3.5%) than BBD controls (16/86 = 18.6%, P = 0.01) and BBD cases (21/86 = 24%, P = 0.002). CLS-B were strongly associated with body mass index (BMI); BMI < 25: 7% CLS-B positive, BMI 25–29: 13%, and BMI ≥ 30: 29% (P = 0.0005). Among BBD biopsies, a high CLS-B count [>5 CLS-B/sample: 10.5% (BBD cases) vs 4.7% (BBD controls), P = 0.007] conferred a breast cancer OR of 6.8 (95% CI, 1.4–32.4), P = 0.02, after adjusting for adipose tissue area (cm2), histologic impression, and BMI. As high CLS-B densities are independently associated with an increased breast cancer risk, they may be a promising histologic marker of breast cancer risk in BBD. Cancer Prev Res; 11(2); 113–9. ©2017 AACR.

Abstract Background: The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) model predicts invasive breast cancer risk in women with Benign Breast Disease (BBD), and recently incorporated BBD histology into the model. The BCSC has been validated in the Mayo Mammography Health Study, but has yet to be examined in Mayo Clinic’s BBD cohort. The Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer (BBD-BC) model predicts risk of both invasive and in situ breast cancer. Here we compare the performance of the BCSC and BBD-BC in Mayo Clinic’s BBD cohort. Methods: Eligible women underwent a breast biopsy with benign findings at the Mayo Clinic between years 1997-2001 and had a 4-view screening mammogram within six months of biopsy. Clinical BI-RADS density assessments using the 4th edition American College of Radiology were available on all mammograms, and were coded as almost entirely fat, scattered fibroglandular densities, heterogeneously dense, and extremely dense. Risk at 5 and 10 years of invasive cancer only (BCSC model) or both invasive and in situ cancer (BBD-BC model) were estimated. In situ cancers were censored at time of diagnosis for both models. Concordance statistics, i.e. model discrimination (higher is better), for each model were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model with predicted risk as the sole predictor, and were compared using permutation tests. The ratio of total predicted (sum of predicted risk) to observed number of invasive breast cancers was used to assess model calibration. Calibration was not formally compared across models due to differences in how DCIS was treated in the development of each (BCSC censored; BBD-BC event). Results: 999 women met inclusion criteria. BI-RADS density was categorized as fatty in 46 (4.6%), scattered densities in 372 (37.2%), heterogeneously dense in 423 (42.3%), and extremely dense in 158 (15.8%). 62 invasive cancers occurred over a median 13.3yrs of follow-up, with 16 (25.8%) and 48 (77.4%) of the cancers occurring with-in 5 and 10 years. The concordance of the BCSC at 5 years was 0.550 (95% CI 0.409—0.691), compared to 0.719 (95% CI 0.578—0.860) for the BBD-BC (p-value=0.005). At 10 years the BCSC concordance was not significantly different from the BBD-BC, at 0.624 (95% CI 0.542—0.706) and 0.662 (95% CI 0.580—0.744), respectively (p-value=0.306). The BCSC over predicted the number invasive cancers in the BBD cohort at 5 years (predicted-to-observed=1.54; 95% CI 1.01—2.70), but was well calibrated at 10 years (1.06; 95% CI 0.83, 1.47). Conclusions: The BCSC model performed reasonably well in the BBD Cohort 10 years post-biopsy, but overestimated risk at 5 years. Additional study is needed to improve models for prediction of breast cancer risk among women with BBD. Citation Format: Ryan D. Frank, Celine M. Vachon, Stacey J. Winham, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Derek C. Radisky, Daniel W. Visscher, Amy C. Degnim. Validation of the BCSC model within the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5299. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-5299

3 Background: Atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) is a high-risk breast lesion usually diagnosed with core needle biopsy. Although upgraded to cancer at surgical excision in ~15 to 25% of cases, routine excision is questioned due to cost and overtreatment. We evaluated clinical, imaging, and histologic features associated with cancer upgrade and developed a multivariate model to predict risk of upgrade. Methods: With IRB approval a single institution retrospective review was performed of patients who underwent surgical excision of ADH diagnosed by core biopsy from 06/2005 to 06/2013. Review was performed of electronic records, breast imagin,g and biopsy slides. Multiple imputations were used for missing data. Association of cancer upgrade with various features was assessed with logistic regression. Results: 409 biopsies with ADH on core biopsy, with later surgical excision, were included. The overall upgrade rate was (16.1%, 95% CI:12.9-20.0%); 10 patients had invasive cancer at excision and 56 DCIS only. Features on core biopsy most strongly associated with upgrade were imaging estimated percent of lesion removed (upgrade 9% for 90% removed, 14% for 50 to 75%, and 27% for < 50% removed), individual cell necrosis (upgrade 34% with necrosis vs. 9.5% without), and # foci of ADH (22% for >1 focus vs 8% for 1 focus). A multivariate predictive model (see Table) showed an average C-statistic of 0.77. Women with no necrosis and either 1 focus with ≥ 50% removal or >1 focus with 90% removal (36% of the sample) have low risk of upgrade (5.0%, 95% CI:1.3-8.7%). Conclusions: ADH on core biopsy with low risk of upgrade to cancer is defined by percent of imaging lesion removed, # of foci of ADH, and lack of individual cell necrosis. If findings are validated, women whose biopsies meet low-risk criteria might be considered for chemoprevention and surveillance rather than surgical excision.[Table: see text]

60 Background: Indications for nipple-sparing mastectomy (NSM) with immediate reconstruction have expanded. For cancer patients, NSM is thought best-suited for early stage patients, with nodal involvement initially viewed as a relative contraindication. We undertook this study to evaluate the use and early outcomes of NSM in node-positive (LN+) breast cancer. Methods: We identified 240 cancers in 226 patients (14 bilateral) scheduled for NSM and operated on at our institution 1/2009-6/2014. Data on intraoperative conversion from NSM, recurrence and follow-up was abstracted from the medical record. Chi-square and long-rank tests were used for statistical analysis. P-values < 0.05 were considered significant. Results: Of 240 cancers, 182 were LN- and 58 were LN+. More LN+ patients had T2/T3 tumors (27/58, 47%) than LN- patients (31/182, 17%), p < 0.0001, but ER and HER2 status was similar. Of 58 LN+ cases, 19 (33%) were cN1 confirmed by positive LN cytology and 39 (67%) were cN0 but LN+ at operation. 10 patients LN+ at diagnosis received neoadjuvant therapy (NT) followed by operation (at which 6 were pLN+ and 4 rendered ypN0); 39 cN0 (4 NT, 35 primary surgery) and 9 cN1 primary surgery patients were pLN+ at operation with a median of 1 LN+. NSM was successful in 13/14 LN+ NT patients (93%) and 39/44 LN+ primary surgery patients (89%), p = 0.64. Six LN+ patients (10%) were converted to skin-sparing mastectomy (SSM) at initial operation based on frozen section pathology (n = 5) or at a second operation (n = 1) vs 13/182 LN- patients (7%), p = 0.44. Among cancer patients treated with NSM, 7 locoregional recurrences (5 in LN+, 2 in LN- patients) occurred at 25 mos median follow-up. 3-year locoregional disease-free estimates were 87% (95% CI 75-100%) for LN+ vs 99% (95% CI 97-100%) for LN- patients, p = 0.007. One nipple-areolar recurrence occurred, in a LN- patient. 3-year breast cancer-specific survival was 97% (95% CI 92-100%) in LN+ vs 99% (95% CI 98-100%) in LN- patients, p = 0.40. Conclusions: Conversion from planned NSM to SSM did not differ significantly between LN+ and LN- patients. Short-term oncologic outcomes were satisfactory. These data suggest that NSM may be appropriate for carefully selected LN+ breast cancer patients.

2 Background: Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have an aggregate increased risk of breast cancer (BC), but accurate personalized risk prediction is desirable to facilitate individual clinical management decisions. Currently used models provide poor BC risk prediction for women with AH. Our goal was to develop and validate an improved risk prediction model for women with AH. Methods: From a cohort of 13,538 women with benign breast disease from 1967-2001, pathology review confirmed 699 with AH. Clinical risk factors and histologic features of the tissue biopsy were recorded, and BC events were ascertained from study questionnaires, tumor registry, and review of medical records. Using a lasso approach, 23 variables were assessed for model inclusion. Lasso-identified features were then fit in a Cox regression model to estimate BC risk. Model discrimination was assessed with C-statistics in the model-building set and in a separate external validation set. Calibration was assessed by comparing observed to predicted breast cancer counts. Results: The model-building set comprised 699 women with 142 BC events (median follow-up 8.1 years), and the external validation set comprised 461 women with 114 BC events (median follow-up 11.4 years). The final model included three covariates: age at biopsy, age squared, and number of foci of AH. Model performance was good, with a C-statistic of 0.622 (SE = 0.027) in the model-building set and 0.594 (SE = 0.029) in the external validation set. The model is well-calibrated, with observed to expected numbers of BCs nearly equal across all post-biopsy follow-up years. Conclusions: We propose a new model for predicting BC risk in women with AH based on age at biopsy and number of foci of atypia. This model provides absolute risk estimates for women with AH, has good discriminatory ability, is well-calibrated, and validates in an external cohort.