Citations

Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial. The impact of early progression on the likelihood of survival to 90 days was examined with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results Mortality rates were 1.4% at 30 days, 3.4% at 60 days, and 5.5% at 90 days. Among baseline factors, advanced age, lower body mass index, poorer performance status, increased number of metastatic sites, BRAF mutant status, and several laboratory parameters were associated with increased likelihood of early mortality. A multivariable model for 90-day mortality showed strong internal discrimination (C-index, 0.77) and good calibration across risk groups as well as accurate predictions in the external validation set, both overall and within patient subgroups. Conclusion A validated clinical nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of early death for individual patients during initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This tool may be used for patient eligibility assessment or risk stratification in future clinical trials and to identify patients requiring more or less aggressive therapy and additional supportive measures during and after treatment.

The optimal surveillance for patients with resected high-risk melanoma is controversial. Select locoregional or oligometastatic recurrences can be cured with salvage resection. Data on the ability of PET/CT to detect such recurrences are sparse. We evaluated whether surveillance PET/CT in patients with resected stage III–IV melanoma led to detection of clinically occult recurrences amenable to curative-intent salvage treatment. We retrospectively identified 1429 melanoma patients who underwent PET/CT between January 2008 and October 2012 at Mayo Clinic (Rochester, Minnesota). A total of 1130 were excluded because of stage I–II, ocular or mucosal melanoma, incomplete resection, PET/CT not performed for surveillance or performed at a different institution, and records not available. A total of 299 patients were eligible. Overall, 162 (52%) patients developed recurrence [locoregional: 77 (48%), distant: 85 (52%)]. The first recurrence was clinically occult in 98 (60%) and clinically evident in 64 (40%). Clinically evident recurrences were more often superficial (skin, subcutaneous, or nodal) or in the brain, whereas clinically occult recurrences more often visceral. Overall, 90% of all recurrences were detected by 2.8 years. In all, 70% of patients with recurrence underwent curative-intent salvage treatment (locoregional: 94%, distant: 48%), with similar rates for clinically occult versus clinically evident recurrences (66 vs. 75%, P=0.240). Overall survival was superior among those who underwent curative-intent salvage treatment [5.9 vs. 1.2 years; hazard ratio=4.27, 95% confidence interval (CI)=2.68–6.80; P<0.001], despite 79% developing recurrence again. PET/CT had high sensitivity (88%, 95% CI=79.94–93.31%), specificity (90%, 95% CI=88.56–91.56%), and negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI=98.46–99.52%). However, the positive predictive value was only 37% (95% CI=31.32–43.68%). In patients with resected stage III–IV melanoma, surveillance PET/CT detected a large proportion of clinically occult recurrences amenable to curative-intent salvage treatment. Despite a high rate of second relapse, curative-intent salvage treatment was associated with superior overall survival. Even though PET/CT had high sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value, positive predictive value was poor, highlighting the need for histologic confirmation of PET/CT-detected abnormalities.