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Background and Purpose— Despite modest predictive ability for ischemic stroke (IS), the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score is widely used for stroke prediction in atrial fibrillation. Among patients with atrial fibrillation, we aimed to (1) compare the IS or transient ischemic attack (TIA) incidence by CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; (2) compare predictive ability of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score for IS or TIA in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; and (3) determine improvement in predictive ability of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score from addition of race/ethnicity. Methods— Using data from Optum Clinformatics, a large administrative claims database, we analyzed patients with atrial fibrillation enrolled in commercial and Medicare Advantage health plans from 2009 to 2015. We computed IS or TIA incidence rates, improvement in C statistic, continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement from addition of race/ethnicity to CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc. Results— A total of 267 419 patients (mean age, 73.1 [SD, 12.3] years; 46.6% women; 84.2% white, 8.5% black, 7.3% Hispanic) were studied. After a mean follow-up of 22 months, there were 6202 IS or TIA events. IS or TIA incidence rates were higher in blacks than Hispanics or whites (1.65, 1.40, and 1.22 cases per 100 person-years, respectively) and increased with higher CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc, with no race/ethnicity-based differences ( P for interaction=0.17). The CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc+race/ethnicity C statistic (95% CI) were 0.679 (0.670–0.686) and 0.679 (0.671–0.688). The CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc C statistic in the 3 groups were comparable. With addition of race/ethnicity, the categorical net reclassification improvement, continuous net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement were −0.045 (95% CI, −0.067 to −0.025), 0.045 (95% CI, 0.025–0.068), and 0.016 (95% CI, 0.014–0.018). Conclusions— The predictive ability of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc for IS or TIA in atrial fibrillation is comparable among whites, blacks, and Hispanics; hence, it can be used in the latter 2 groups. Addition of race/ethnicity to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc does not improve its predictive ability.

AbstractBackgroundCardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reverses left ventricular remodeling and improves left ventricular systolic function. However, little is known about whether CRT improves ventricular conduction.ObjectiveTo determine the relationship between CRT response and QRS narrowing.MethodsThe study included consecutive patients who underwent CRT with defibrillator (CRT‐D) implantation between January 2002 and December 2012 and had subsequent generator replacement (GR). At the time of GR, super‐responder was defined as those who had left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 50% or more; patients who had an LVEF of 36–49% with an increase of more than 5% were considered responders, and the others were nonresponders. All patients were assessed 6 months after CRT‐D implantation and at the time of GR.ResultsOf 114 study patients, 58 (50.9%) were nonresponders, 29 (25.4%) responders, and 27 (23.7%) super‐responders. QRS narrowing at 6 months was significant in super‐responders (175.4 ± 21.4 to 159.7 ± 20.7 ms, P = 0.001) and responders (169.0 ± 21.3 to 157.7 ± 17.6 ms, P = 0.008). At time of GR, only super‐responders had further QRS narrowing (159.7 ± 20.7 to 146.3 ± 19.2 ms, P < 0.001). QRS duration change after 6 months was independently associated with super‐response (hazard ratio: 1.20 for every 5 ms QRS duration narrowing; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–1.38; P = 0.005), and QRS narrowing of 10 ms or more was associated with lower risk of all‐cause mortality after GR.ConclusionContinuous QRS narrowing after CRT, as an electrical marker, is associated with a super‐response to CRT. Further QRS narrowing 6 months after CRT implantation was associated with lower risk of mortality after GR.

AbstractBackgroundImplantable loop recorders (ILRs) are effective in achieving symptom‐rhythm correlation. However, diagnostic yield in routine clinical practice is not well established.MethodsPatients undergoing ILR implantation between April 2010 and May 2015 were included. All devices were enrolled in remote monitoring with automatic arrhythmia detection and P sense algorithms switched “ON.” Symptom‐rhythm correlation was assessed and changes in management were recorded.ResultsA total of 312 patients (57% male, age 53 ± 22 years; median CHADS2VaSc score = 1) were included in this study. ILRs were implanted for evaluation of syncope in 206 (66.0%), presyncope in 23 (7.4%), unexplained palpitations in 51 (16.3%), and cryptogenic stroke in 27 (8.7%) patients. ILR monitoring yielded a diagnosis that changed management strategy in 146 (46.8%) patients over a median of 12 (1‐42) months. Out of 163 (52.2%) patients with symptoms during the monitoring period, 100 (61.3%) had an arrhythmia. ILR was useful in ruling out an arrhythmic cause for symptoms in 63 (38.7%) patients. ILR results led to pacemaker implantation in 23 patients (7.4% overall and 11.2% of those with syncope) after median follow‐up of 3 months. A new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation was made in 38 (12.2%) patients, 11 of whom were initiated on oral anticoagulants. ILR results led to pacemaker implantation in 31 patients (9.9% overall and 19.0% of those with syncope) after median follow‐up of 3 months. A new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation was made in 38 (12.2%) patients, nine of whom were initiated on oral anticoagulants. Overall, ILR led to a change in management in 47% patients with a number needed to implant of 2.1 to change management.ConclusionILR monitoring is effective in achieving symptom‐rhythm correlation and results in changes in management in nearly half of implanted patients. Additional studies are needed to evaluate cost efficacy of ILR and the optimal monitoring duration.

Abstract Infection is a common cause of death in patients with advanced cirrhosis. We aimed to develop a predictive model in Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) class C cirrhotics hospitalized with infection for optimizing treatment and improving outcomes. Clinical information was retrospectively abstracted from 244 patients at Tianjin Third Central Hospital, China (cohort 1). Factors associated with mortality were determined using logistic regression. The model for predicting 90-day mortality was then constructed by decision tree analysis. The model was further validated in 91 patients at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (cohort 2) and 82 patients at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Korea (cohort 3). The predictive performance of the model was compared with that of the CTP, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, Chronic Liver Failure–Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and the North American consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) models. The 3-month mortality was 58%, 58%, and 54% in cohort 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In cohort 1, respiratory failure, renal failure, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, and neutrophil percentage were determinants of 3-month mortality, with odds ratios of 16.6, 3.3, 2.0, 1.1, and 1.03, respectively (P < .05). These parameters were incorporated into the decision tree model, yielding area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.804. The model had excellent reproducibility in the U.S. (AUROC 0.808) and Korea cohort (AUROC 0.809). The proposed model has the highest AUROC and best Youden index of 0.488 and greatest overall correctness of 75%, compared with other models evaluated. The proposed model reliably predicts survival of advanced cirrhotics with infection in both Asian and U.S. populations.

Background— The effectiveness of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention of sudden death in patients with an ejection fraction (EF) ≤35% and clinical heart failure is well established. However, outcomes after replacement of the ICD generator in patients with recovery of EF to >35% and no previous therapies are not well characterized. Methods and Results— Between 2001 and 2011, generator replacement was performed at 2 tertiary medical centers in 253 patients (mean age, 68.3±12.7 years; 82% men) who had previously undergone ICD placement for primary prevention but subsequently never received appropriate ICD therapy. EF had recovered to >35% in 72 of 253 (28%) patients at generator replacement. During median (quartiles) follow-up of 3.3 (1.8–5.3) years after generator replacement, 68 of 253 (27%) experienced appropriate ICD therapy. Patients with EF ≤35% were more likely to experience ICD therapy compared with those with EF >35% (12% versus 5% per year; hazard ratio, 3.57; P =0.001). On multivariable analysis, low EF predicted appropriate ICD therapy after generator replacement (hazard ratio, 1.96 [1.35–2.87] per 10% decrement; P =0.001). Death occurred in 25% of patients 5 years after generator replacement. Mortality was similar in patients with EF ≤35% and >35% (7% versus 5% per year; hazard ratio, 1.10; P =0.68). Atrial fibrillation (3.24 [1.63–6.43]; P <0.001) and higher blood urea nitrogen (1.28 [1.14–1.45] per increase of 10 mg/dL; P <0.001) were associated with mortality. Conclusions— Although approximately one fourth of patients with a primary prevention ICD and no previous therapy have EF >35% at the time of generator replacement, these patients continue to be at significant risk for appropriate ICD therapy (5% per year). These data may inform decisions on ICD replacement.

Background Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines suggest that for patients with atrial fibrillation who are at low risk for stroke (CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=1) (or women with CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=2) a variety of treatment strategies may be considered. However, in clinical practice, patterns of treatment in these “low‐risk” patients are not well described. The objective of this analysis is to define thromboembolic event rates and to describe treatment patterns in patients with low‐risk CHA 2 DS 2 VASc scores. Methods and Results We compared characteristics, treatment strategies, and outcomes among patients with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=0, CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=1, females with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=2, and CHA 2 DS 2 VASc ≥2 in ORBIT‐AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) I & II. Compared with CHA 2 DS 2 VASc ≥2 patients (84.2%), those with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=0 (60.3%), 1 (69.9%), and females with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score=2 (72.4%) were significantly less often treated with oral anticoagulation ( P <0.0001). Stroke rates were low overall and ranged from 0 per 100 patient‐years in those with CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=0, 0.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] [0.5–1.2]) in those with CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=1, 0.8 (95% CI [0.4–1.6]) in females with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score=2, and 1.7 (95% CI [1.6–1.9]) in CHA 2 DS 2 VASc ≥2. All‐cause mortality (per 100 patient‐years) was highest in females with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score=2 (1.4) (95% CI [0.8–2.3]), compared with patients with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=0 (0.2) (95% CI [0.1–1.0]), and CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=1 (1.0) (95% CI [0.7–1.4]), but lower than patients with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc ≥2 (5.7) (95% CI [5.4–6.0]). Conclusion The majority of CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=0‐1 patients are treated with oral anticoagulation. In addition, the absolute risks of death and stroke/transient ischemic attack were low among both male and females CHA 2 DS 2 VASc=0‐1 as well as among females with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score=2. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01701817.