Citations

Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of “modifiable risk factors”, measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.

Fournier gangrene (FG) is a genitourinary necrotizing fasciitis that can be lethal if not promptly diagnosed and surgically debrided. The diagnosis is often made by physical examination paired with an appropriate clinical suspicion and supporting laboratory values. Imaging, particularly computed tomography (CT), plays a role in delineating involved fascial planes for operative debridement and occasionally in diagnosing FG. Less commonly, the imaging manifestations of FG may also be seen on ultrasound, radiographs, and magnetic resonance imaging. With the ubiquitous use and availability of CT, radiologists have a growing role in recognizing FG. This can be challenging in the absence of fascial gas, but a CT scoring system for necrotizing fasciitis can be helpful in making the diagnosis. Recent series suggest that this predominantly male disease has a rising incidence in women. Women with FG are more likely to be morbidly obese and have vulvar or labial involvement compared to men. Imaging mimics include ulcerative and necrotic tumors, traumatic or iatrogenic fascial gas, and vaginitis emphysematosa. The purpose of this pictorial review is to illustrate the imaging manifestations of FG and its mimics, with emphases on necrotizing fasciitis CT scoring systems and FG in women.