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Introduction: A number of clinical and radiological predictors of either stone impaction or ureteral stone passage (SP) have been proposed. We aimed at identifying the key predictors of successful SP by using readily available CT-based tools/measurements. Methods: Patients presenting to the emergency department from February 2017 to February 2018 with an acute unilateral ureteral stone confirmed on non-contrast CT and managed conservatively were followed for SP. Patients with renal impairment, sepsis or requiring emergent intervention were excluded. Patients were followed at 1 month to confirm SP (stone collection/repeat imaging) or failure of passage. The CT variables analyzed included: Stone factors [location, size, volume, HU density (HUD)], impaction factors [ureteral HUD above and below the stone, maximal ureteral wall thickness (UWT) at the stone site, contralateral UWT, and ureteral diameter above and below the stone]. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of SP. Results: Forty-nine patients met study inclusion criteria, of whom 32 (65.3%) passed the stone without further intervention. Patients with successful passage were more likely to have smaller, lower volume and less dense stones located in the distal ureter ( p < 0.01). Lower ureteral HUD below the stone, lower maximal UWT, and lower ureteral diameter above the stone were associated with successful passage ( p < 0.01). On multivariable logistic regression analysis, only maximal UWT at the stone site was a significant independent predictor of SP outcome ( p = 0.01). Youden's criterion identified 2.3 mm as the optimal UWT cut-off point, which will accurately predict SP with 82.4% sensitivity and 87.5% specificity. Conclusions: Maximal UWT at the stone site was the most significant predictor of successful passage in acute unilateral ureteral stones, with an optimal cut-off point of 2.3 mm. Further prospective studies are needed to accurately predict spontaneous SP.

Abstract BackgroundSelf-assembly of the amyloid-β (Aβ) peptide into aggregates, from small oligomers to amyloid fibrils, is fundamentally linked with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). However it is clear that not all forms of Aβ are equally harmful, and that linking a specific aggregate to toxicity also depends on the assays and model systems used [1, 2]. Though a central postulate of the amyloid cascade hypothesis, there remain many gaps in our understanding regarding the links between Aβ deposition and neurodegeneration.MethodsIn this study, we examined familial mutations of Aβ that increase aggregation and oligomerization, E22G and DE22, and induce cerebral amyloid angiopathy, E22Q and D23N. We also investigated synthetic mutations that stabilize dimerization, S26C, and a phospho-mimetic, S8E, and non-phospho-mimetic, S8A. To that end, we utilized BRI2-Aβ fusion technology and rAAV2/1 based somatic brain transgenesis in mice to selectively express individual mutant Aβ species in vivo . In parallel we generated PhiC31-based transgenic Drosophila melanogaster expressing wild type (WT) and Aβ40 and Aβ42 mutants, fused to the Argos signal peptide to assess the extent of Aβ42-induced toxicity as well as to interrogate the combined effect of different Aβ40 and Aβ42 species.ResultsWhen expressed in the mouse brain for 6 months, Aβ42 E22G, Aβ42 E22Q/D23N, and Aβ42WT formed amyloid aggregates consisting of some diffuse material as well as cored plaques, whereas other mutants formed predominantly diffuse amyloid deposits. Moreover, while Aβ40WT showed no distinctive phenotype, Aβ40 E22G and E22Q/D23N formed unique aggregates that accumulated in mouse brains. This is the first evidence that mutant Aβ40 overexpression leads to deposition under certain conditions. Interestingly, we found that mutant Aβ42 E22G, E22Q, and S26C, but not Aβ40, were toxic to the eye of Drosophila . In contrast, flies expressing a copy of Aβ40 (WT or mutants) in addition to Aβ42WT, showed improved phenotypes, suggesting possible protective qualities for Aβ40.ConclusionsThese studies suggest that some Aβ40 mutants form unique amyloid aggregates in mouse brains, despite protecting against Aβ42 toxicity in Drosophila , which highlights the significance of using different systems for a better understanding of AD pathogenicity and more accurate screening for new potential therapies.

9628 Background: As multiple treatments have been studied for the management of hot flashes in randomized, controlled trials, hot flash placebo responses have been quite variable across trials. Based on observations of trial reports, it was hypothesized that the magnitude of placebo effect might correlate with the number of baseline hot flashes in different studies. The current project examines the effect of the baseline hot flash frequency required for study participation and also the actual number of baseline hot flashes observed as these individually relate to the eventual reductions of hot flash frequency observed in patients receiving placebos. Methods: Data were collected from placebo-controlled, double-blinded, randomized trials, identified by a PubMed search, which reported hot flash frequency at baseline, 4–6 weeks and 12 weeks. Trials were excluded if they had less than 20 participants completing the placebo arm. Data gathered, in each study, included the number of hot flashes required to enroll in the study, the average hot flash number during the baseline period, and the hot flash changes in the placebo arms of each study (percent reduction from the baseline period). A simple statistical analysis was conducted in a descriptive fashion since standard deviation was not available in many trials. Scatter plots and Pearson's correlation coefficients demonstrated the relationships between the placebo hot flash percent reduction from baseline and both the minimum required number of hot flashes at baseline, and the mean number of hot flashes at baseline. Results: 45 trials with 49 placebo arms were included in this analysis. A significant positive correlation was seen between the number of hot flashes required to enroll in a study and the percent reduction of hot flashes from baseline at 4–6 weeks (Rho = 0.481, p = 0.003). There was also a significant positive correlation between the number of hot flashes at baseline and the percent reduction of hot flashes from baseline at 4–6 weeks (Rho = 0.481, p= 0.002) and at 12 weeks (Rho = 0.573, p= 0.003). Conclusions: These data support that higher baseline hot flash enrollment requirements and also higher baseline hot flash frequencies are associated with an increased placebo response. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

e19031 Background: Useful predictors of survival in cancer patients have been found including such as gender, race, age, marital status, state of disease and tumor location. We set to explore the prognostic value of baseline QOL assessments on overall survival in lung cancer patients. Methods: A total of 1,319 lung cancer patients were followed at Mayo Clinic between 1997 and 2007. Overall QOL was assessed by either Lung Cancer Symptom Scale (LCSS) or a single-item Linear Analogue Self Assessment (LASA) with comparable wording. QOL scores were transformed to a 0–100 scale with higher scores representing better status. Patients QOL scores assessed within the first 6 months of follow-up were dichotomized using a priori definition for clinically deficiency score (CDS, ≤50 vs. >50). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the distribution of survival times by QOL clinical deficient categorization. Cox Proportional Hazards Models were used to evaluate the prognostic importance of QOL on OS alone and in the presence of age, smoking category, gender, treatment, stage of disease, smoking cessation and years of consuming a pack every day. Results: Baseline QOL was significantly associated with OS univariately (HR=0.46 with p<0.0001 based on the CDS categorization). After controlling for all these other factors, the indication of a clinically deficient baseline QOL contributed significantly to the prediction of patient survival (p=0.0002; HR=0.67). Age, treatment, disease stage, smoking cessation and smoking category were also significant predictors of OS multivariately. The median survival for patients that had an overall QOL score less than the CDS (≤50) was 1.6 versus 4.6 years for patients with QOL >50. Conclusions: Baseline overall QOL measured by LCSS or LASA is a significant and independent prognostic factor for OS in lung cancer patients. A meaningful next step in this research is to investigate interventions to improve lung cancer patient QOL and thereby increase their likelihood of survival as well. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

6518 Background: Several studies have demonstrated the importance of pessimism in cardiovascular disease. However, this construct has not been well explored in oncology. Methods: This study examined the survival time of 534 adult who were diagnosed with lung cancer. These patients had completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) approximately 18.2 years prior to their lung cancer diagnosis. MMPI Optimism-Pessimism (PSM) scores were divided into high (60 or more) and low scores (less than 60), and log-rank tests and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to determine survival differences. Multivariate Cox models were used for assessing prognostic values of pessimism along with other known predictors for survival outcome. Results: At the time of diagnosis, patients were on average 67 years old, 48% were female, 85% had non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), 15% had small cell lung cancer (SCLC), 30% were stage I, 4% were stage II, 31% were stage III/Limited, and 35% were stage IV/Extensive. Patients who exhibited a non-pessimistic explanatory style survived approximately six months longer than patients classified as pessimists. Pessimists have significantly worse survival rates even after adjusting for other known prognostic variables. Conclusions: Among lung cancer patients, having a pessimistic explanatory style was related to surviving on average six months less compared to patients with a non-pessimistic explanatory style. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Abstract BACKGROUND Prior comparisons of brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) treated using stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) with or without embolization were inherently flawed, due to differences in the pretreatment nidus volumes. OBJECTIVE To compare the outcomes of embolization and SRS, vs SRS alone for AVMs using pre-embolization malformation features. METHODS We retrospectively reviewed International Radiosurgery Research Foundation AVM databases from 1987 to 2018. Patients were categorized into the embolization and SRS (E + SRS) or SRS alone (SRS-only) cohorts. The 2 cohorts were matched in a 1:1 ratio using propensity scores. Primary outcome was defined as AVM obliteration. Secondary outcomes were post-SRS hemorrhage, all-cause mortality, radiologic and symptomatic radiation-induced changes (RIC), and cyst formation. RESULTS The matched cohorts each comprised 101 patients. Crude AVM obliteration rates were similar between the matched E + SRS vs SRS-only cohorts (48.5% vs 54.5%; odds ratio = 0.788, P = .399). Cumulative probabilities of obliteration at 3, 4, 5, and 6 yr were also similar between the E + SRS (33.0%, 46.4%, 56.2%, and 60.8%, respectively) and SRS-only (32.9%, 46.2%, 56.0%, and 60.6%, respectively) cohorts (subhazard ratio (SHR) = 1.005, P = .981). Cumulative probabilities of radiologic RIC at 3, 4, 5, and 6 yr were lower in the E + SRS (25.0%, 25.7%, 26.7%, and 26.7%, respectively) vs SRS-only (45.3%, 46.2%, 47.8%, and 47.8%, respectively) cohort (SHR = 0.478, P = .004). Symptomatic and asymptomatic embolization-related complication rates were 8.3% and 18.6%, respectively. Rates of post-SRS hemorrhage, all-cause mortality, symptomatic RIC, and cyst formation were similar between the matched cohorts. CONCLUSION This study refutes the prevalent notion that AVM embolization negatively affects the likelihood of obliteration after SRS.

Background: Patients with cholangiocarcinoma often have indwelling biliary stents or catheters which are prone to obstructions and/or infections; studies show that 20–40% present with fever and/or jaundice requiring urgent treatment in the outpatient setting for which there are no uniform guidelines. The goal was to develop an expert panel consensus on this topic using the modified RAND/UCLA Delphi process to rate treatment appropriateness. Methods: Thirteen expert physicians from relevant specialties, geography, and practice settings were recruited for the panel. Patient scenarios were developed and panelists rated the therapies before and after a face-to-face discussion. The appropriateness of various therapies was rated on a scale from 1–9 and classified as appropriate, inappropriate, or uncertain. Scenarios with greater than 2 (>2) ratings of 1–3 (inappropriate) and greater than 2 (>2) ratings of 7–9 (appropriate) were considered to have disagreement and were not assigned an appropriateness rating. Results: Panelists were from all US regions and the UK (8%) and had practiced for a mean 16.5 years (4–33 years). Panelists rated 480 scenarios before the meeting and re-rated 288 of the clinical scenarios after the meeting. The panelists agreed that ongoing treatment with chemotherapy did not influence decision-making and, therefore, 192 scenarios were excluded from the final list. Disagreement decreased from 37.5% before to 10.4% after the meeting. Consensus on stent/tube manipulation and inpatient antibiotic therapy was obtained and summarized in patients as “appropriate” or “maybe appropriate” based on a patient’s bilirubin level at presentation. Conclusions: The Delphi process produced consensus guidelines to fill an unmet need in the urgent management of ascending cholangitis in patients with cholangiocarcinoma.

Abstract Background The level of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) training in general gastroenterology fellowship is often insufficient to prepare trainees to deliver advanced IBD care in practice. Advanced IBD fellowships have been developed to fill this training gap, but there is no established curriculum, and significant variability exists across programs. Entrustable professional activities (EPAs) are practical and realistic objectives that define essential tasks of a specialty that physicians should master to be competent during independent practice. The American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) and Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation (Foundation) established a task force to develop and appraise EPAs for advanced IBD fellowship. Methods Entrustable professional activities were developed using a multistep approach in a similar manner to other specialties. Initial EPAs identified via focus groups were evaluated, critiqued, and changed using an iterative model of feedback. The final EPAs were selected after the task force conducted a 3-phase modified Delphi method consisting of 2 sequential rounds of web-based voting and an in-person consensus meeting. Results Ten EPAs for advanced IBD fellowship were established including detailed descriptions with the associated knowledge, skills, and attitudes for each that can serve as curricular milestones. Conclusion Ten EPAs describing the core work of an advanced IBD fellowship–trained physician have been established by a multisociety task force. Creating EPAs for an advanced curriculum comes with unique challenges, particularly the need to prevent duplication of prior training competencies while demonstrating the potential for unique milestones.