Citations

PURPOSE Most oncology trials define superiority according to dichotomized P value thresholds, which are frequently misinterpreted. Posterior probability, however, directly estimates the probability of the hypothesis at hand. Here, we reanalyze a large collection of modern phase III trials and benchmark posterior probability versus the standard trial interpretation based on statistical significance. METHODS Outcomes from 194,129 patients were manually reconstructed from the primary end points of 230 phase III, superiority-design oncology trials. Posterior probabilities of treatment effect were then calculated across multiple priors and several effect sizes of clinical relevance, including minimum clinically important difference (MCID) defined as hazard ratio (HR) < 0.8 per ASCO criteria or HR < 0.64 per European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) criteria. RESULTS All trials interpreted as superior using P value thresholds had probabilities >90% for achieving at least marginal benefits (HR < 1). However, only 62% of positive trials (74/120) had >90% probabilities of achieving the ASCO MCID (HR < 0.8), even under an enthusiastic prior, including 70% of trials (57/82) leading to regulatory approval. Only 30% of positive trials (36/120) had >90% probability of achieving the ESMO MCID (HR < 0.64). Conversely, 24% of trials (26/110) interpreted as not superior had >90% probability of achieving marginal benefits (HR < 1), even under a skeptical prior. CONCLUSION Bayesian models, although often in agreement with statistical significance thresholds, add considerable unique interpretative value for a subset of phase III oncology trials. Posterior probability may provide a solution for overcoming the discrepancies between refuting the null hypothesis and detecting clinically relevant effects.

Objective To examine the potential errors of a general large language model (LLM) (ie, Claude 3.5 Sonnet) on data extraction from randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Design and setting An empirical study comparing Claude 3.5 Sonnet extractions against a human-performed verification dataset. The extraction tasks for Claude 3.5 Sonnet were based solely on original RCT portable document format (PDF) files. For PDFs that could not be directly extracted by Claude 3.5 Sonnet, optical character recognition was employed to convert them into text format before extraction. Participants A random sample of 664 trials was selected from a well-established trial bank and a final data pool was established based on rigorous manual cross-checking as a reference standard. Data sources PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science (all databases) and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to February 2023. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies RCTs on children involving medication and adverse events. Main outcome measures Claude 3.5 Sonnet was applied to extract the basic information (eg, trial design, population information and source of funding) and adverse outcomes (ie, name of adverse events, number of events). Claude 3.5 Sonnet outputs were compared against the final data pool and all errors were recorded. Results are presented as error rates and with 95% CI, estimated using a generalised linear mixed model. Results For the 664 trials, a total of 23 069 data cells were extracted via Claude 3.5 Sonnet, with 10 624 for basic information and 12 445 for adverse outcomes. The overall error rate for data extraction was 6.6% (95% CI 5.4% to 8.2%), with 5.7% (95% CI 5.2% to 6.1%) in basic information and 7.6% (95% CI 4.9% to 11.8%) in adverse outcomes. When stratified the 1542 total errors by error types, misallocation (assigning data to incorrect fields; 57.1%, 881/1542) and missed or omitted data (incomplete extraction of available data; 23.2%, 357/1542) accounted for the two most frequent errors, with misallocation occurring more in basic information (53.3%, 470/881), while missed or omitted data occurred more in adverse outcomes (96.1%, 343/357). Post hoc analysis examining the association between trial reporting quality (assessed using Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2025 and LLM data extraction error rates indicated that higher CONSORT adherence was associated with lower extraction error rates. Conclusions The data extraction error of Claude was relatively low, but it alerts LLM applications in evidence synthesis. Detailed checking for LLM outputs should be the primary consideration for evidence synthesisers.

ABSTRACT Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) are clonal myeloid neoplasms shaped by genetic lesions and immune dysregulation, both of which contribute to disease progression and poor outcomes. Existing prognostic systems, such as IPSS‐R and IPSS‐M, do not incorporate immune alterations. We assessed the biological and clinical relevance of an immune dysfunction signature (IDS) across multi‐center MDS and CMML cohorts. IDS scores, derived from bulk transcriptomic data, were significantly associated with inferior leukemia‐free and overall survival. In multivariable analyses, IDS retained independent prognostic value alongside IPSS‐R, IPSS‐M, and bi‐allelic TP53 inactivation. Incorporation of IDS into existing models improved prognostic discrimination and time‐dependent predictive accuracy. Longitudinal analyses revealed that rising IDS scores paralleled disease progression and acute transformation, whereas declining scores were observed in remission. Biologically, IDS‐high cases demonstrated reduced cytotoxic T‐cell activity, expansion of regulatory T cells, enrichment of primitive progenitor signals, and increased expression of checkpoint pathway genes. These findings were validated across multiple independent MDS cohorts and consistently reproduced in CMML, where IDS also stratified risk and tracked disease evolution. Finally, integration with drug response signatures from the BeatAMLv2 cohort suggested potential therapeutic vulnerability of IDS‐high cases to multikinase and NF‐κB pathway inhibitors. These results establish IDS as a robust and dynamic biomarker in MDS and CMML, with applications in refined risk stratification, longitudinal disease monitoring, and guiding personalized therapeutic strategies targeting immune dysfunction. Trial Registration: #201709072RINC, #202109078RINB, #202207050RINB

Purpose To project the future utilization of open and arthroscopic rotator cuff repair (RCR) in the Medicare population through 2050, incorporating post‐COVID recovery data to provide insight into evolving surgical preferences, economic pressures, and implications for health care delivery. Methods We analyzed 2003‐2024 data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare Part‐B National Summary, which captures all Medicare beneficiaries undergoing open or arthroscopic RCR as identified by Current Procedural Terminology codes. Projections were based on 2003‐2019 and 2023‐2024 data, reflecting post‐COVID‐19 recovery and avoiding distortions from 2020 to 2022 pandemic‐related disruptions. Statistical models evaluated included log‐linear, Poisson, negative binomial, and autoregressive integrated moving average. Autoregressive integrated moving average was selected based on the lowest normalized root mean square error, reflecting superior predictive accuracy and its ability to capture time‐dependent trends, and was used to forecast RCR volumes through 2050. Results In 2024, there were 23,154 open and 188,700 arthroscopic RCR procedures, which served as the baseline for modeling. Open RCR is projected to decline on average by 5.91% annually, while arthroscopic RCR is projected to grow by 2.88% annually. By 2050, arthroscopic RCR volume is expected to reach 394,434 procedures (95% forecast interval: 363,424‐425,321), whereas open RCR is expected to decline to 4748 procedures (95% forecast interval: 1243‐43,747). Conclusions Autoregressive integrated moving average modeling projects that by 2050 arthroscopic RCR utilization will increase by 2‐fold and open RCR will decline to one‐fifth compared with 2024 baseline volumes. Level of Evidence Level III, retrospective cohort study.

Abstract Solitary bone plasmacytoma (SBP) and SBP with minimal marrow involvement (SBPmm) are treated similarly with definitive radiation therapy (RT) followed by observation. However, differences in the natural disease course after RT between the two, are not well described. We performed a multicenter study assessing outcomes after RT in 141 patients with SBP and 102 with SBPmm diagnosed between January 2010 and December 2024. About 92% of patients with SBPmm progressed to multiple myeloma (MM) vs 76% of those with SBP (P = .01). Among patients with SBP, 21% progressed with a second solitary bone lesion vs 4% with SBPmm (P&lt; .01). Patients with longer time to progression (TTP) after initial RT could achieve durable responses with RT to a second solitary plasmacytoma in the absence of other myeloma-defining events (MDE). Multifocal lytic bone lesions were the most common MDE, occurring in 89% and 81% of patients with SBPmm and SBP, respectively. Patients with SBPmm had a median TTP of 15 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 14-21) compared to 43 months (95% CI, 34-55) for those with SBP (P&lt; .0001); 67% with SBPmm progressed within 2 years of diagnosis. Del(17p) and 1q+ (gain or amplification) were associated with shorter TTP to MM in SBPmm, with 2-year progression rates of 100% and 82%, respectively. We report significant differences in risk and modes of progression between SBP and SBPmm. Patients with SBPmm are at particularly high risk for early progression to MM, with most developing bone disease as the MDE. These findings support prospective studies incorporating frontline systemic therapy for SBPmm.

Summary Chimeric antigen receptor T cells directed against CD‐19 are highly effective therapies for various subtypes of B‐cell non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). We have studied the impact of patient‐specific lymphocyte growth kinetics after lymphoid depletion chemotherapy on both long‐term outcomes and toxicity in patients with diffuse large B‐cell non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (DLBCL). The growth of the lymphocyte populations early after chimeric antigen receptor T‐cell (CAR‐T) therapy is well described by an exponential function and the growth rate of the cells appears to be one of the most critical determinants of overall survival in these patients. The maximum lymphocyte peak and the area under curve for lymphocytes within the first 4 weeks after CAR‐T therapy had no impact on survival. Receiver operator characteristic analysis determined that a replication rate ≥0.3876/day is associated with superior rates of complete response and durable responses. This threshold is associated with higher grades of cytokine release syndrome and the need for tocilizumab. However, patients with this threshold have a median overall survival of 3.04 years compared to 1.035 years for patients with slower lymphocyte replication ( p = 0.0206). The major determinant of depth of response and durability of response to CAR‐T in NHL is the speed of lymphocyte expansion.

Chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) is a dose-limiting toxicity affecting 30–40% of patients treated with neurotoxic chemotherapy. Sensory symptoms arise from injury to dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons and their axons; yet, the underlying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. While human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived sensory neuron (iSN) monolayers have provided mechanistic insight, they lack the three-dimensional architecture and cellular heterogeneity of native DRG tissue. Here, we generated human iPSC-derived DRG organoids (iDRGOs) containing mixed neuronal and peripheral glial populations and established a quantitative neurite outgrowth assay to model chemotherapy-induced neurotoxicity in a 3D context. iDRGOs from three healthy donors were exposed to bortezomib, vincristine, or paclitaxel. All three drugs caused dose-dependent neurite outgrowth impairment without significant short-term changes in organoid size, consistent with early axonal injury. Vincristine reduced MAP2 levels when normalized to total protein, whereas bortezomib and paclitaxel showed divergent microtubule-associated responses compared to monolayer cultures. The developmental stage significantly influenced the baseline neurite outgrowth, highlighting the need for age standardization. These results establish iDRGOs as a physiologically relevant human platform that complements monolayer models for mechanistic studies and therapeutic screening in CIPN.

Abstract Complete response (CR) is an important treatment goal in follicular lymphoma (FL). In relapsed or refractory (R/R) FL, CR rates decline, and disease progression accelerates with each treatment line, with particularly poor outcomes in patients with high‐risk features. Odronextamab, a CD20 × CD3 bispecific antibody, demonstrated deep, durable responses and generally manageable safety in R/R FL in the Phase 2 ELM‐2 study (NCT03888105); we present an exploratory analysis in patients who attained a CR. Patients received intravenous odronextamab with step‐up dosing in Cycle 1, 80 mg weekly in Cycles 2–4, then 160 mg once every 2 weeks until disease progression or other protocol‐defined reason for discontinuation. Patients with CR lasting ≥9 months switched to dosing once every 4 weeks. Overall, 73.4% (94/128) of patients attained CR, 93.6% (88/94) by first response assessment (~Week 12). Median time to CR was 2.7 months (range 2.3–7.9). Median duration of CR was 25.1 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.5–not evaluable [NE]) overall and 23.7 months (18.2–NE) in patients with high‐risk features. Overall, 79.5% (35/44) of patients who switched to Q4W dosing maintained CR at last assessment. Patients with low/undetectable CD20 expression by immunohistochemistry (<10% CD20 + cells) or RNA sequencing (messenger RNA < 500 transcripts per million) could achieve CR. Median progression‐free survival was 27.8 months (95% CI 23.0–NE) in patients with CR and not reached in those with undetectable circulating tumor DNA at Week 12. Treatment‐emergent adverse events (TEAEs) led to treatment discontinuation in 16.0% of patients with CR; the most common TEAE was cytokine release syndrome (56.4%). This generally manageable safety profile and the sustainability of CRs support odronextamab as a potential long‐term treatment for heavily pretreated R/R FL.

Diagnosing rare genetic diseases remains a major challenge despite widespread clinical testing. Long-read RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) offers a powerful approach to capturing the effects of genetic variants on the transcriptome, yet challenges with sequencing coverage, cost, tissue selection, and scalability have limited its clinical adoption. To address this, we developed STRIPE (Sequencing Targeted RNAs Identifies Pathogenic Events), a targeted long-read RNA-seq–based strategy for rare disease diagnosis and variant interpretation. STRIPE enables deep sequencing of full-length transcripts for any customized disease-specific gene panel such that a wide range of clinically informative readouts, including transcript aberrations and sequence variants, can be detected at haplotype-level resolution. Applying STRIPE to 88 individuals spanning two major rare disease groups, we accurately reidentified known pathogenic variants and revealed their transcript consequences, including many unexpected ones. For 8 of 15 splice site region variants, we observed more complex RNA processing defects beyond single exon skipping or cryptic splice site activation. Notably, we find that donor splice site variants frequently activate cryptic intronic polyadenylation sites, leading to premature transcript termination. Leveraging unique strengths of long-read RNA-seq, STRIPE also resolved variants of uncertain significance and uncovered disease-causing variants in five previously undiagnosed individuals. Overall, STRIPE is a powerful, adaptable, and scalable strategy with broad potential to improve clinical variant interpretation and advance genetic diagnosis of rare diseases.