Citations

Abstract Background Breast cancer is etiologically heterogeneous, but which risk factors differ in their associations across tumor subtypes remains unclear. We conducted a large, pooled analysis to evaluate independent, dose-response associations between breast cancer risk factors and quantitative tumor features. Methods Analyses of 15,731 invasive breast cancers from 24 studies evaluated associations (p-trend) between reproductive and hormonal factors, body mass index (BMI), alcohol, smoking, and family history in relation to quantitative immunohistochemistry measures on tissue microarrays (ER, PR, HER2, KI67, TP53) and tumor grade. Analyses in a subset of 10 population-based studies estimated subtype-specific odds ratios (ORs) comparing cases to controls. A Bayesian False Discovery Probability (BFDP) <0.2 was used to identify associations with strong statistical evidence. Results Nulliparity and later age at menopause were associated with higher ER-positivity (p-trend=0.021 and 0.001, respectively), with corresponding OR[ER+] (95% CI) = 1.49 (1.16-1.90) for nulliparous vs. parous and 1.07 (1.03-1.11) per 5 years. Current combined menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use was associated with lower grade (p-trend<0.001), with OR [grade1] = 3.37 (2.69-4.21) for current vs. never users. Higher BMI was associated with lower ER-positivity and higher grade in premenopausal women (p-trend<0.001 and <0.001), with OR[ER+] = 0.80 (0.74-0.87) and OR[grade1] = 0.75 (0.63-0.88) per 5 units, and with higher PR-positivity and higher grade in postmenopausal women (p-trend<0.001 and <0.001), with OR[PR+] = 1.08 (1.03-1.14) and OR[grade 3] = 1.10 (1.04-1.17) per 5 units. Conclusion This pooled analysis of 15,731 cases showed that nulliparity, age at menopause, MHT, and BMI have independent, dose-response associations with ER, PR, and grade, clarifying patterns of etiologic heterogeneity. Associations with HER2, KI67 and TP53, or other risk factors did not meet our threshold for strong evidence.

Abstract Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), which quantify inherited susceptibility to complex traits and diseases, have emerged as valuable tools for risk stratification and precision medicine. Despite their promise, PRS developed on European cohorts often demonstrate substantially reduced predictive accuracy in non-European populations, due to differences in genetic architecture. The disproportionate representation of European ancestry cohorts in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) leads to inequitable deployment of PRS technologies across diverse populations. Here, we introduce PRANA (Polygenic Risk Adaptation via Neural-network Architecture), a deep learning framework that adapts an existing PRS developed on one population to other ancestries. Unlike methods that require large-scale GWAS in the target population, PRANA leverages pre-trained PRS models derived from European cohorts and adapts them using modestly sized cohorts from the target population. We evaluated PRANA on seven complex traits in South Asian, East Asian and Ashkenazi Jewish populations, as well as in selected smaller East Asian subpopulations where the scarcity of training data poses a particular challenge. PRANA mostly improved predictive performance of the baseline PRS models by 5%-20% in terms of effect size (β) and Nagelkerke’s R², and, in most cases, outperformed existing cross-ancestry multi-PRS approaches. These results highlight PRANA as a scalable and practical strategy to reduce disparities in genomic risk prediction and advance the equitable application of PRS in diverse populations.

Background: Breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRS) and traditional risk models (e.g., the Gail model [Gail]) are known to contribute largely independent information, but it is unclear how the overlap varies by ancestry, age, disease type (invasive breast cancer, DCIS), and risk threshold. Methods: In a retrospective case–control study, we evaluated risk prediction performance in 180,398 women (161,849 of European ancestry; 18,549 of Asian ancestry). Odds ratios (ORs) from logistic regression models and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were estimated. Results: PRS for invasive disease showed a stronger association in younger (<50 years) women (OR = 2.51, AUC = 0.622) than in women ≥ 50 years (OR = 2.06, AUC = 0.653) of European ancestry. PRS performance in Asians was lower (OR range = 1.62–1.64, AUC = 0.551–0.600). Gail performance was modest across groups and poor in younger Asian women (OR = 0.94–0.99, AUC = 0.523–0.533). Age interactions were observed for both PRS (p < 0.001) and Gail (p < 0.001) in Europeans, whereas in Asians, age interaction was observed only for Gail (invasive: p < 0.001; DCIS: p = 0.002). PRS identified more high-risk individuals than Gail in Asian populations, especially ≥50 years, while Gail identified more in Europeans. Overlap between PRS, Gail, and family history was limited at higher thresholds. Calibration analysis, comparing empirical and model-based ROC curves, showed divergence for both PRS and Gail (p < 0.001), which indicates miscalibration. In Europeans, family history and prior biopsies drove Gail discrimination. In younger Asians, age at first live birth was influential. Conclusions: PRS adds value to risk stratification beyond traditional tools, especially in younger women and Asian ancestry populations.

e18161 Background: Thyroid cancer remains a significant cause of mortality globally, with varying trends across demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic groups. Understanding these patterns is critical for developing effective prevention and intervention strategies. This study examines thyroid cancer-related mortality trends in the United States from 1999 to 2023, focusing on age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and disparities across demographic and geographic classifications. Methods: This descriptive study utilized the CDC WONDER database to extract data on thyroid cancer (ICD-10 code C73) deaths among adults aged 25 and older from 1999 to 2023. AAMRs per 1,000,000 individuals were calculated and stratified by gender, race/ethnicity, census region, urban-rural classification, and state. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to compute annual percent changes (APCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Results: Between 1999 and 2023, there were 55,971 deaths attributed to thyroid cancer (Men: 24,398; Women: 31,573). Overall, the AAMR increased modestly, with an APC of 1.0 (95% CI: 0.8 to 1.2). Men exhibited a slightly higher AAMR increase (APC: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.4) compared to women (APC: 0.9; 95% CI: 0.7 to 1.2). Racial disparities revealed varied trends. Non- Hispanic White individuals experienced a steady AAMR increase (APC: 1.0; 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.2), while Hispanic populations showed a smaller increase (APC: 0.4; 95% CI: -0.1 to 1.1). Non-Hispanic Asians or Pacific Islanders had a slight decline (APC: -0.4; 95% CI: -1.1 to 0.5), and Non-Hispanic Black populations showed segmented trends, with an APC of 0.3 (95% CI: - 7.8 to 16.7) from 1999 to 2018 and a subsequent increase (APC: 3.7; 95% CI: -5.5 to 10.5) from 2018 to 2020. Geographically, the West exhibited the highest overall AAMR (11.0; 95% CI: 10.8–11.2), followed by the Midwest (9.9; 95% CI: 9.7–10.0) and Northeast (9.8; 95% CI: 9.6–10.0), with the South reporting the lowest AAMR (9.0; 95% CI: 8.8–9.1). Hawaii had the highest state-level AAMR (12.3; 95% CI: 10.8–13.7), while Georgia recorded the lowest (7.6; 95% CI: 7.2–8.1). Urban-rural disparities indicated a slightly higher APC in non-metropolitan areas (1.0; 95% CI: 0.7–1.4) compared to metropolitan areas (0.8; 95% CI: 0.6–1.0). Conclusions: Thyroid cancer-related mortality has shown a gradual increase in the United States over the past two decades, with distinct gender, racial, and geographic disparities. Men, non-metropolitan residents, and individuals in the West and Hawaii faced higher mortality burdens. These findings underscore the importance of targeted public health strategies to address these disparities and reduce thyroid cancer mortality in vulnerable populations.

e16419 Background: Pancreatic cancer remains one of the most lethal malignancies worldwide. While high-income regions have long faced higher rates, recent trends show that lower-income regions are also beginning to see an increase. This study explores how pancreatic cancer incidence and prevalence have changed over the past 30 years among adults aged 70 and older assessing regional differences. Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) spanning three decades (1990–2021) to assess pancreatic cancer incidence and prevalence rates among adults aged 70+. Data focused on different regions worldwide, grouping them by income levels using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and annual changes in incidence and prevalence rates were calculated. Results: In 2021, High-income Asia Pacific had the highest incidence rate at 119.52 per 100,000, whereas Low SDI regions had the lowest at 12.01 per 100,000. High-income regions accounted for the majority of cases, with over 140,000 reported, compared to fewer than 3,000 in the lowest-income areas. Andean Latin America experienced significant APC fluctuations, with a sharp rise from 2015 to 2019 followed by a decline, while High-income North America saw a recent decrease in incidence. Overall, most regions exhibit a steady increase in pancreatic cancer prevalence, with higher AAPCs in Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and parts of Asia, while high-income regions show more moderate increases. Trend analysis reveals significant trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and prevalence among individuals aged 70+. Western Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) at 2.3248%, indicating the most substantial increase in prevalence from 1990 to 2021, followed by North Africa and the Middle East at 1.9906%. Low-middle SDI regions also show a steady rise with an AAPC of 1.718%, while high-income regions like High-income Asia Pacific report a notable AAPC of 1.595%. Conclusions: Our findings show a concerning rise in pancreatic cancer among older adults, with the most dramatic increases in regions like Western Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa. To tackle this growing challenge, we need focused efforts on prevention, early detection, and accessible care, especially in lower-resource settings. Incidence percent changes. Metric Region 1990 2021 AAPC (1990-2021) Highest incidence percent change Western Sub-Saharan Africa 7.62 15.38 2.31 North Africa and Middle East 20.97 37.23 1.91 Lowest incidence percent change Caribbean 41.51 41.36 -0.016 Southern Latin America 74.05 73.89 0.006 Highest prevalence percent change Western Sub-Saharan Africa 4.54 9.21 2.32 North Africa and Middle East 12.49 22.77 1.99 Lowest prevalence rate percent change Caribbean 25.02 25.38 0.02 Southern Latin America 44.78 45.45 0.06

Background and Objectives: The epidemiological data regarding mortality rates of adults with sarcoidosis and non-ischemic cardiovascular disease (CVD) are limited. A retrospective observational analysis was conducted to identify trends and disparities related to sarcoidosis and non-ischemic cardiovascular disease mortality among the adult US population from 1999 to 2022. Methods: We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WONDER database to extract death certificate data for the adult US population (≥25 years). The age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 persons were calculated, and annual percent changes (APCs) were determined using Joinpoint. Results: Between 1999 and 2022, 23,642 deaths were identified related to non-ischemic CVD + sarcoidosis. The overall AAMR increased from 0.2 (95% CI, 0.2 to 0.3) in 1999 to 0.5 (95% CI, 0.5 to 0.6) in 2022. Females had a higher AAMR than males (0.6 vs. 0.5). Non-Hispanic (NH) blacks had the highest AAMR, followed by NH whites and Hispanic or Latinos. The southern region had the highest AAMR (0.7: 95% CI, 0.6–0.7), followed by the Midwest (0.6, 95% CI, 0.54–0.669), the Northeast (0.5, 95% CI, 0.5 to 0.6), and the West (0.4; 95% CI, 0.3–0.4). Urban and rural areas had comparable mortality rates (0.5 vs. 0.6). People aged 65+ had the highest AAMRs. Conclusions: The overall mortality rates for non-ischemic CVD and sarcoidosis have increased in the US from 1999 to 2022. Females and NH blacks had higher AAMRs, while a minimal variation was observed based on geographical regions. Early diagnosis and prompt management are the keys to reducing the mortality burden of non-ischemic CVD plus sarcoidosis.

A large number of variants identified through clinical genetic testing in disease susceptibility genes are of uncertain significance (VUS). Following the recommendations of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) and Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP), the frequency in case-control datasets (PS4 criterion) can inform their interpretation. We present a novel case-control likelihood ratio-based method that incorporates gene-specific age-related penetrance. We demonstrate the utility of this method in the analysis of simulated and real datasets. In the analysis of simulated data, the likelihood ratio method was more powerful compared to other methods. Likelihood ratios were calculated for a case-control dataset of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and compared with logistic regression results. A larger number of variants reached evidence in favor of pathogenicity, and a substantial number of variants had evidence against pathogenicity—findings that would not have been reached using other case-control analysis methods. Our novel method provides greater power to classify rare variants compared with classical case-control methods. As an initiative from the ENIGMA Analytical Working Group, we provide user-friendly scripts and preformatted Excel calculators for implementation of the method for rare variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, and other high-risk genes with known penetrance.

Abstract Background Breast cancer (BC) patients with a germline CHEK2 c.1100delC variant have an increased risk of contralateral BC (CBC) and worse BC‐specific survival (BCSS) compared to non‐carriers. Aim To assessed the associations of CHEK2 c.1100delC, radiotherapy, and systemic treatment with CBC risk and BCSS. Methods Analyses were based on 82,701 women diagnosed with a first primary invasive BC including 963 CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers; median follow‐up was 9.1 years. Differential associations with treatment by CHEK2 c.1100delC status were tested by including interaction terms in a multivariable Cox regression model. A multi‐state model was used for further insight into the relation between CHEK2 c.1100delC status, treatment, CBC risk and death. Results There was no evidence for differential associations of therapy with CBC risk by CHEK2 c.1100delC status. The strongest association with reduced CBC risk was observed for the combination of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy [HR (95% CI): 0.66 (0.55–0.78)]. No association was observed with radiotherapy. Results from the multi‐state model showed shorter BCSS for CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers versus non‐carriers also after accounting for CBC occurrence [HR (95% CI): 1.30 (1.09–1.56)]. Conclusion Systemic therapy was associated with reduced CBC risk irrespective of CHEK2 c.1100delC status. Moreover, CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers had shorter BCSS, which appears not to be fully explained by their CBC risk.

Abstract Breast cancer (BC) patients with a germline CHEK2 c.1100delC variant have an increased risk of contralateral BC (CBC) and worse BC-specific survival (BCSS) compared to non-carriers. We aimed to assess the associations of CHEK2 c.1100delC, radiotherapy, and systemic treatment with CBC risk and BCSS. Analyses were based on 82,701 women diagnosed with invasive BC including 963 CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers; median follow-up was 9.1 years. Differential associations of treatment by CHEK2 c.1100delC status were tested by including interaction terms in a multivariable Cox regression model. A multi-state model was used for further insight into the relation between CHEK2 c.1100delC status, treatment, CBC risk and death. There was no evidence for differential associations of therapy with CBC risk by CHEK2 c.1100delC status The strongest association with reduced CBC risk was observed for the combination of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy [HR(95%CI): 0.66 (0.55–0.78)]. No association was observed with radiotherapy. Results from the multi-state model showed shorter BCSS for CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers versus non-carriers also after accounting for CBC occurrence [HR(95%CI) :1.30 (1.09–1.56)]. In conclusion, systemic therapy was associated with reduced CBC risk irrespective of CHEK2 c.1100delC status. Moreover, CHEK2 c.1100delC carriers had shorter BCSS, which appears not to be fully explained by their CBC risk. (Main MS: 3201 words)

Objective: Limited data exist around the receipt of palliative care (PC) in patients hospitalized with common chronic conditions. We studied the independent predictors, temporal trends in rates of PC utilization in patients hospitalized with acute exacerbation of common chronic diseases. Methods: Population-based cohort study of all hospitalizations with an acute exacerbation of heart disease (HD), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), cancer (CA), and chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD). Patients aged ≥18 years or older between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2017, referred for inpatient PC were extracted from the National Inpatient Sample. Poisson regression analyses were used to estimate temporal trends. Results: Between 2004 and 2017, of 91,877,531 hospitalizations, 55.2%, 13.9%, 17.2%, and 13.8% hospitalizations were related to HD, CVA, CA, and CLRD, respectively. There was a temporal increase in the uptake of PC across all disease groups. Age-adjusted estimated rates of PC per 100,000 hospitalizations/year were highest for CA (2308 (95% CI 2249–2366) to 10,794 (95% CI 10,652–10,936)), whereas the CLRD cohort had the lowest rates of PC referrals (255 (95% CI 231–278) to 1882 (95% CI 1821–1943)) between 2004 and 2017, respectively. In the subgroup analysis of patients who died during hospitalization, the CVA group had the highest uptake of PC per 100,000 hospitalizations/year (4979 (95% CI 4918–5040)) followed by CA (4241 (95% CI 4189–4292)), HD (3250 (95% CI 3211–3289)) and CLRD (3248 (95% CI 3162–3405)). Conclusion: PC service utilization is increasing but remains disparate, particularly in patients that die during hospital admission from common chronic conditions. These findings highlight the need to develop a multidisciplinary, patient-centered approach to improve access to PC services in these patients.