Roberts, Lewis R.

Abstract Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has emerged as a major cause of cancer deaths globally. The landscape of systemic therapy has recently changed, with six additional systemic agents either approved or awaiting approval for advanced stage HCC. While these agents have the potential to improve outcomes, a survival increase of 2–5 months remains poor and falls short of what has been achieved in many other solid tumor types. The roles of genomics, underlying cirrhosis, and optimal use of treatment strategies that include radiation, liver transplantation, and surgery remain unanswered. Here, we discuss new treatment opportunities, controversies, and future directions in managing HCC.

Abstract Objectives: Biliary tract cancers (BTCs) comprise the second most common type of hepatobiliary cancer. Given the increase in global BTC incidence, with associated morbidity and mortality, together with the limited therapeutic options, there is increasing interest in strategies for disease prevention. We performed a population-based cohort study to determine the association between low dose aspirin, non-aspirin NSAIDs, statins, metformin, other risk factors and the risk of biliary tract cancer (BTC), while assessing confounding by sex. Methods: We conducted a nationwide Swedish population-based cohort study using the Swedish Prescribed Drug Registry, which virtually completely enumerates use of prescribed medications nationwide since 2005. BTC diagnosis (intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma [iCCA], extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma [eCCA] or gallbladder cancer [GBC]) was ascertained from the Swedish Cancer Registry. Age-scaled Cox models, with exposure as time-varying covariates, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs), separately for men and women. Results: In the 5.7 million person cohort, the risk of iCCA was significantly lower in men using statins (HR 0.62,95%CI 0.39-1.00,p=0.05), with a non-significant reduction in women. Statin use was associated with a significantly decreased risk of eCCA in both women (HR 0.60,0.38-0.94,p=0.03) and men (HR 0.47,0.28-0.80,p=0.01). Low dose aspirin (HR 0.76,0.60-0.97,p=0.03) was associated with a lower risk of GBC only in women, while statins (HR 0.72,0.55-0.93,p=0.01) showed a significantly decreased risk of GBC in women and a non-significant reduction in men. For all BTC subtypes, combined use of low dose aspirin and statins did not confer additional risk reductions beyond those achieved by statins alone. Male and female users of non-aspirin NSAIDs appeared to be at increased risk of BTC and its subtypes. Metformin did not significantly affect risk of BTC. Conclusion: We performed the largest population-based cohort study evaluating risk and protective factors for BTC. Our results provide strong evidence in favor of the chemopreventive roles of low dose aspirin and statins in a subtype-and sex-specific manner. Individual risk factors contribute to development of BTC subtypes in different magnitudes. If randomized controlled clinical trials validate our findings and provide favorable evidence of the efficacy and safety of these drugs in the prevention of BTCs, our results could potentially be practice-changing, leading to improvements in the outcomes in this population. Citation Format: Lorena Marcano-Bonilla, Cathy D. Schleck, W. Scott Harmsen, Omid Sadr-Azodi, Mitesh J. Borad, Tushar Patel, Gloria M. Petersen, Terry M. Therneau, Lewis R. Roberts, Nele Brusselaers. Associations of aspirin, non-aspirin NSAIDs, statins, and metformin with risk of biliary tract cancer: A Swedish population-based cohort study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5049.

Diabetes increases the risk of liver disease progression and cirrhosis development in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The association between diabetes and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in NASH patients with cirrhosis is not well quantified. All patients with the diagnosis of NASH cirrhosis seen at Mayo Clinic Rochester between January 2006 and December 2015 were identified. All adult liver transplant registrants with NASH between 2004 and 2017 were identified using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)/Organ Procurement and Transplantation registry for external validation. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to investigate the association between diabetes and HCC risk. Among 354 Mayo Clinic patients with NASH cirrhosis, 253 (71%) had diabetes and 145 (41%) were male. Mean age at cirrhosis evaluation was 62. During a median follow‐up of 47 months, 30 patients developed HCC. Diabetes was associated with an increased risk of developing HCC in univariate (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1‐11.9; P = 0.04) and multivariable analysis (HR = 4.2; 95% CI = 1.2‐14.2; P = 0.02). In addition, age (per decade, HR = 1.8; 95% CI = 1.2‐2.6; P < 0.01) and low serum albumin (HR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.5‐2.9; P < 0.01) were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing HCC in multivariable analysis. Other metabolic risk factors, including body mass index, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension, were not associated with HCC risk. Among UNOS NASH registrants (N = 6,630), 58% had diabetes. Diabetes was associated with an increased risk of developing HCC in univariate (HR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.1‐1.8; P < 0.01) and multivariable (HR = 1.3; 95% CI = 1.0‐1.7; P = 0.03) analysis. Conclusion: Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of HCC in patients with NASH cirrhosis.

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is the second most common malignancy arising in the liver. It carries a poor prognosis, in part because its pathogenesis is not well understood. The type 3 inositol 1,4,5‐trisphosphate receptor (ITPR3) is the principal intracellular calcium ion (Ca2+) release channel in cholangiocytes, and its increased expression has been related to the pathogenesis of malignancies in other types of tissues, so we investigated its role in CCA. ITPR3 expression was increased in both hilar and intrahepatic CCA samples as well as in CCA cell lines. Deletion of ITPR3 from CCA cells impaired proliferation and cell migration. A bioinformatic analysis suggested that overexpression of ITPR3 in CCA would have a mitochondrial phenotype, so this was also examined. ITPR3 normally is concentrated in a subapical region of endoplasmic reticulum (ER) in cholangiocytes, but both immunogold electron microscopy and super‐resolution microscopy showed that ITPR3 in CCA cells was also in regions of ER in close association with mitochondria. Deletion of ITPR3 from these cells impaired mitochondrial Ca2+ signaling and led to cell death. Conclusion: ITPR3 expression in cholangiocytes becomes enhanced in CCA. This contributes to malignant features, including cell proliferation and migration and enhanced mitochondrial Ca2+ signaling.

Goal: To investigate associations of prediagnosis and postdiagnosis use of statins and metformin on overall survival of patients with diabetes who later developed HCC. Background: Statins and metformin have received considerable interest as potential chemopreventive agents against hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); however, their impact on overall survival of patients with T2DM who later develop HCC (diabetic HCC patients) is unclear. Study: Data on 2499 elderly diabetic HCC patients obtained from the SEER-Medicare program (2009 to 2013) were analyzed. Patients were categorized based on use of statins only, metformin only, both, or neither (reference for all comparisons). The patients were further categorized based on: (1) metformin dose: ≤1500 or >1500 mg/d; (2) statins functional form: hydrophilic (pravastatin and rosuvastatin) or lipophilic (atorvastatin, fluvastatin, lovastatin, and simvastatin); (3) statins potency: high (atorvastatin, rosuvastatin, and simvastatin) or low (fluvastatin, lovastatin, and pravastatin); and (4) individual statins type. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Prediagnosis use of metformin dose ≤1500 mg/d was associated with lower risk of death after HCC diagnosis in patients with T2DM (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.58-0.91), adjusting for postdiagnosis metformin dose, diabetes severity, Charlson comorbidity index, tumor characteristics, and other relevant factors. No association was found for prediagnosis metformin dose >1500 mg/d or postdiagnosis metformin use. Further, no association was found for either prediagnosis or postdiagnosis statins use. Conclusions: Prediagnosis use of metformin dose ≤1500 mg/d is associated with longer overall survival of elderly diabetic HCC patients.

442 Background: Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been used as an inflammation-based prognostic marker for various malignancies. The aim of our study was to determine whether NLR can independently predict the overall survival in patients with metastatic gallbladder cancer (GBC). Methods: We identified patients diagnosed with GBC who were treated at Mayo Clinic between the years 2000 and 2016. Patients who had nonmetastatic GBC were excluded along with the patients who did not have data for neutrophils and lymphocytes. Optimal cutoff point for NLR was identified by plotting martingale residuals against NLR and patients were divided into two groups, ≥ 5 or < 5. Demographic, follow-up data and outcomes were collected by retrospective review of electronic medical records. Fisher’s exact test was used to compare categorical variables, while The Mann- Whitney U test was used to compare continuous variables. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for NLR ≥ 5 and NLR < 5 and overall survival (OS) between the two groups were compared using log rank test. Multivariate survival analysis was performed using Cox-proportional hazard regression. Results: A total of 231 patients met our inclusion criteria, of which, 138 (60%) had NLR < 5 and 93 (40%) had NLR ≥ 5. Patients with NLR ≥ 5 were more likely to be older and have poor performance score, lower albumin level, higher alkaline phosphatase level, and higher platelet count. There were no significant differences noted in gender, race and administration of chemotherapy between the two groups. In univariate analysis, patients with NLR ≥ 5 at presentation had a significantly worse OS compared to those with NLR < 5 (Median survival: 3.6 vs. 8.8 months, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, ECOG status, albumin, ALP, AST, ALT, bilirubin, platelet count and administration of chemotherapy, NLR of ≥ 5 was associated with a worse OS compared to NLR < 5 (HR: 1.70, 95% CI:1.20 – 2.39. p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that NLR ≥ 5 is an independent predictor of poor prognosis in patients with metastatic gallbladder cancer.

433 Background: Current staging systems for gallbladder cancer (GBC) are inadequate, as they are based on surgical pathology, and therefore are not relevant for unresectable patients and patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of GBC who were seen at Mayo Clinic between the years 2000 and 2016 were included in this analysis. Data on demographic and tumor characteristics and outcomes were collected by retrospective review of electronic medical records. A model predictive of overall survival was developed using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. Harrel’s C-statistic was calculated to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the model and compared with the TNM staging system. Results: A total of 523 patients were included in the final analysis, with a median age of diagnosis of 68 years. The median duration of follow up of the entire cohort was 12 months. In multivariate analysis, factors predictive of poorer overall survival were: ages 65-74 years (HR : 1.80, 95% CI: 1.33–2.43) and ages 75+ years (HR: 2.93, 95% CI: 2.12–4.06) compared to age <55 years; tumor size ≥ 5 cm by imaging (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01–1.55); nodal involvement by imaging (HR:1.61, 95% CI: 1.23–2.10); involvement of distant organs by imaging (HR: 2.85, 95% CI: 2.16–3.75); ECOG performance score of 2 or higher (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.36–2.32) compared to ECOG 0-1; albumin level <3.5 g/dL (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.08–1.81); and alkaline Phosphatase level ≥ 200 IU/L (HR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.21–1.84). Using these seven predictive factors of survival we created a four-tier staging system. The median survivals of Stages I, II, III and IV created in our novel system were 64, 34, 20 and 7 months with corresponding hazard ratios of 1, 1.5, 2.5 and 8.5 respectively. The C-statistic for this novel staging system was 0.68 compared to C-statistic of 0.69 for the TNM staging system, indicating similar performance in predicting survival. Conclusions: We have created a novel clinically-based staging system for patients with GBC based on nonoperative information at the time of diagnosis which performs on par with the current surgical pathology based TNM staging system.

243 Background: The risk factors for gallbladder cancer (GBC) are poorly understood and preventive therapeutic options have not been identified. The use of aspirin (ASA) and/or statin has been associated with reduced risk of several gastrointestinal cancers. In this study, we explore if the use of ASA or statin is associated with a reduced risk of GBC. Methods: We identified patients with GBC diagnosed between the years 2000 and 2016 at Mayo Clinic. We identified matched controls in 2:1 fashion for age, gender and country of residence from patients who underwent cholecystectomy at Mayo Clinic. We collected information on co-morbidities and use of statins or ASA by retrospective chart review. We compared baseline characteristics between cases and controls using Fisher’s exact test for categorical variables and Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. We used binomial logistic regression to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to estimate the association of ASA or statin use with GBC. The logistic regression model included history of cholelithiasis, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia (HCL), hypertension (HTN), hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), cirrhosis and statin or ASA use as covariates. Results: 633 cases and 1,266 controls were included in our final analysis. The median age at diagnosis of cases and controls was 67 years. The control group had a significantly (p < 0.05) higher proportion of patients with cholelithiasis, HCL, HTN, hypothyroidism and liver cirrhosis compared to the cases. The case group,contrarily, had a significantly higher proportion of patients with PSC and IBD. In univariate analysis, ASA (OR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.33-0.52) or statin (OR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.38-0.60) use was associated with a lower risk of GBC (p < 0.001). However, in multivariate analysis, ASA use was associated with a lower risk of GBC (OR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.41-0.67, p < 0.001) whereas statin use was not (OR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.56-1.03, p = 0.08). Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that aspirin use is associated with a reduced risk of GBC, whereas statin use is not. Further studies on GBC are needed to confirm these results and to elucidate mechanisms that explain the risk reduction with aspirin.