Abraldeṣ, Juan G.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition with high short-term mortality. Identifying key predictors of poor outcomes is critical for guiding therapeutic strategies. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), a key determinant of tissue perfusion and systemic hemodynamics, may play a pivotal role in prognosis. METHODS: We analyzed a multicenter, prospective cohort of 323 patients hospitalized with AH, with validation in an independent cohort of 290 patients. Survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with the log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for mortality, adjusted for Model for end stage liver disease score. Mechanistic insights were explored through assessment of cardiovascular biomarkers. RESULTS: A baseline MAP <80 mm Hg was associated with significantly higher mortality at both 28 days (27.3% vs 8.0%) and 90 days (40.3% vs 15.6%; P < 0.001 for both). This association persisted after adjusting for Model for end stage liver disease score, age, and baseline hepatic encephalopathy. The incidence of infections during follow-up was similar across MAP groups (27.6% vs 22.8%), but acute kidney injury occurred more frequently in the MAP <80 mm Hg group (62% vs 38%, P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, patients with MAP <80 mm Hg also demonstrated significantly lower 28-day transplant-free survival. Although B-type natriuretic peptide and plasma renin levels were altered in patients with AH, they did not correlate with MAP values. DISCUSSION: A baseline MAP <80 mm Hg is an independent predictor of short-term and mid-term mortality in patients with AH. Strategies aimed at restoring hemodynamic stability may improve outcomes in this high-risk population.

Background Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) is a life-threatening condition with high mortality, where corticosteroid use is the only treatment that has shown short-term benefits. Pentoxifylline, an anti-tumour necrosis factor-alpha agent, has been proposed for its potential to improve outcomes, especially in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). We aimed to evaluate the impact of pentoxifylline on mortality in patients with sAH and AKI in a well-characterised global cohort. Methods We conducted a retrospective, registry-based study including patients meeting the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism clinical criteria for sAH and AKI. Mortality was the primary endpoint, with liver transplantation as a competing risk. Statistical analysis included Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. Results We included 525 patients from 20 centres across eight countries. The median age was 48 years, with 26.1% females, and 76.9% had a history of cirrhosis. Multivariable Cox regression models showed that pentoxifylline use was not associated with survival (HR 1.20, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.69, p=0.291). Factors associated with mortality included age (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.36, p<0.001), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at admission (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.08, p<0.001) and renal replacement therapy use (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.84, p=0.019). The main causes of death were multiple organ failure (42%), infections (10%), oesophageal varices bleeding (7%) and renal failure (6%). Conclusion Pentoxifylline showed no significant benefit on mortality in patients with sAH and AKI. Further studies are needed to refine treatment strategies for this high-risk group.

Background: Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) is a well-characterized disease with high short-term mortality. However, there is limited research on those with a “less severe condition” (moderate AH). This study aims to characterize in-depth patients with moderate AH (mAH), including the performance of mortality scoring systems, key prognostic factors, and survival over time. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study (2009–2019) included patients with mAH (MELD score ≤20 at admission). Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curves with AUC were used for analysis. Results: We included 1845 patients with AH (20 centers, 8 countries) between 2009 and 2019. mAH was defined as a MELD score ≤20 at admission. Twenty-four percent met the criteria for an mAH episode. Patients with mAH tend to be older and have a higher proportion of females, with a median MELD of 17 (15–19), Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) of 33 (22–40), the trajectory of serum bilirubin of 0.83 (0.60–1.21), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of 5 (2.96–8.60). The primary causes of death in mAH included multiple organ failure (34.1%) and infections (16.6%). The cumulative survival rates at 30, 90, and 180 days were 94.3%, 90.4%, and 88.2%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, age was the only significant predictor of 30-day mortality (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.27–1.76, p <0.001). Mortality prediction models showed poor performance, with AUC for MELD (0.671), mDF (0.726), trajectory of serum bilirubin (0.733), and NLR (0.697). Conclusions: Patients with moderate AH exhibited a mortality of 11.8% at 6 months, primarily driven by multiple organ failure and infections. These patients also exhibit a different clinical profile compared to those with sAH. Tailored models and therapeutic strategies are needed to improve long-term outcomes in mAH.

ABSTRACTSeveral dynamic models predict mortality and corticosteroid response in alcohol‐associated hepatitis (AH), yet no consensus exists on the most effective model. This study aimed to assess predictive models for corticosteroid response and short‐term mortality in severe AH within a global cohort. We conducted a multi‐national study of patients with severe AH treated with corticosteroids for at least 7 days, enrolled between 2009 and 2019. Dynamic models—Lille‐4, Lille‐7, trajectory of serum bilirubin (TSB), and neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR)—were used to estimate 30‐ and 90‐day mortality. Lille‐7 demonstrated the highest accuracy for both 30‐ and 90‐day mortality.

ImportanceThere are no useful treatments to prevent the development of severe complications of liver cirrhosis. Simvastatin and rifaximin have shown beneficial effects in liver cirrhosis.ObjectiveTo assess whether simvastatin combined with rifaximin improves outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsDouble-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial conducted among patients with decompensated cirrhosis in 14 European hospitals between January 2019 and December 2022. The last date of follow-up was December 2022.InterventionsPatients were randomly assigned to receive simvastatin, 20 mg/d, plus rifaximin, 1200 mg/d (n = 117), or identical-appearing placebo (n = 120) for 12 months in addition to standard therapy, stratified according to Child-Pugh class B or C.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary end point was incidence of severe complications of liver cirrhosis associated with organ failure meeting criteria for acute-on-chronic liver failure. Secondary outcomes included transplant or death and a composite end point of complications of cirrhosis (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, acute kidney injury, and infection).ResultsAmong the 237 participants randomized (Child-Pugh class B: n = 194; Child-Pugh class C: n = 43), 72% were male and the mean age was 57 years. There were no differences between the 2 groups in terms of development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (21 [17.9%] vs 17 [14.2%] patients in the treatment and placebo groups, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.65-2.34; P = .52); transplant or death (22 [18.8%] vs 29 [24.2%] patients in the treatment and placebo groups, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.43-1.32; P = .32); or development of complications of cirrhosis (50 [42.7%] vs 55 [45.8%] patients in the treatment and placebo groups, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.63-1.36; P = .70). Incidence of adverse events was similar in both groups (426 vs 419; P = .59), but 3 patients in the treatment group (2.6%) developed rhabdomyolysis.Conclusions and RelevanceThe addition of simvastatin plus rifaximin to standard therapy does not improve outcomes in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03780673

Background:Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is associated with significant mortality. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is used to predict short-term mortality and aid in treatment decisions. MELD is frequently updated in the course of AH. However, once the most updated MELD is known, it is uncertain if previous ones still have prognostic value, which might be relevant for transplant allocation and trial design. We aimed to investigate the predictive performance of updated MELDs in a prospectively collected cohort of patients with AH by the InTeam consortium.Methods:Three hundred seven patients (with 859 MELD values within 60 d of admission) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The main endpoint was time to death or transplant up to 90 days. We used a joint model approach to assess the predictive value of updated MELDs.Results:Updated MELD measurements had a strong prognostic value for death/transplant (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.14–1.27) (p< 0.0001). Previous MELD values did not add predictive value to the most current MELD. We also showed that MELD at day 28 (MELD28) had a significant predictive value for subsequent mortality/transplant in a landmark analysis (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.12–1.23). We show that the use of an ordinal scale including death, transplant, and MELD28 as a trial outcome could substantially reduce the sample size required to demonstrate short-term benefit of an intervention.Conclusion:We show that updated MELDs during the trajectory of AH predict subsequent mortality or the need for transplant. MELD28 inclusion in an ordinal outcome (together with death or transplant) could increase the efficiency of randomized controlled trials.

Background and Aims: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. Approach and Results: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort’s average 90-day mortality with each center’s approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779–0.844) and 0.799 (0.769–0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey’s Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Conclusions: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it’s accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.