Schott, Jonathan M.

Abstract In response to a Cochrane review (published in April 2026) on the clinical trials of monoclonal antibodies targeting beta amyloid, this perspective outlines a number of critiques. The scientists, methodologists, subject‐matter experts, and clinicians on this perspective strongly recommend that the Cochrane editorial board consider a call for editorial response, correction of press materials, or commissioned reply to this review for four overarching reasons: (1) decision to pool antibodies that do and do not clear beta amyloid, (2) decision to include studies from a time when biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease were not available, (3) analytical and methodological limitations of the approach used, (4) conflating the distinct roles and methodological processes of systematic review and guideline methodologies, (5) contextualizing the present critique within the existing evidence‐synthesis literature, and (6) mechanistic inference beyond the scope of the presented analyses. Conclusions that may not accurately reflect treatment‐specific effects could cause significant downstream clinical and psychosocial harm to those currently undergoing treatment and their family members as well as individuals considering participation in Alzheimer's clinical trials.

Importance Amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) is increasingly used in research and clinical settings to determine the etiology of cognitive decline and eligibility for amyloid-targeting therapies. To assist with amyloid PET evaluation and to guide clinical decision-making, images can be quantified in a standardized unit called Centiloid, the interpretation of which can vary according to the method and threshold used. Objective To collect Centiloid values from available studies and determine robust positivity cutoffs using data-driven methods and correspondence with visual reads. Data Sources PubMed search (October 2024) identified studies with Centiloid values. Corresponding authors were invited to share individual participant data. Additional data were obtained through access-controlled repositories and conference outreach (July 2024-July 2025). Study Selection Studies were included if they provided Centiloids, radiotracer, age, and sex. Data Extraction and Synthesis Each study was analyzed using a unified statistical pipeline; study estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) were fitted to Centiloid values for each study. In studies with a bimodal distribution (per integrated completed likelihood), single cutoffs for positivity were set as mean plus 2 SDs of the lower gaussian component. Using GMMs, a double-cutoff approach defined a lower certainty range using a 90% posterior probability cutoff for assignment to the low (amyloid-negative) vs high (amyloid-positive) component. An alternative Centiloid cutoff was derived from maximizing the correspondence (Cohen κ) with the binary visual reads when available. Results This meta-analysis included cross-sectional amyloid PET scans acquired with 5 radiotracers from 49 227 participants across 53 studies from 15 countries (mean age, 71 years; 54% female, 62% cognitively impaired). The data-driven GMM approach identified a bimodal distribution in 51 studies (n = 48 786), resulting in a single cutoff for positivity of 18 Centiloids (95% CI,16-19; I 2 = 97%). The double-cutoff approach revealed high confidence for interpreting scans as negative when Centiloid values were lower than 11 (95% CI, 9-13; I 2 = 95%) and interpreting scans as positive if Centiloid values were higher than 26 (95% CI, 24-28; I 2 = 95%). In analyses of correspondence with binary (positive or negative) visual reads of amyloid PET scans (n = 35 045; 36 studies), Centiloids were highly predictive of visual positivity (Cohen κ, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.89; I 2 = 96%) with a cutoff of 27 Centiloids (95% CI, 24-30; I 2 = 80%). Conclusions and Relevance In this individual participant data meta-analysis, positivity cutoffs converged around 18 Centiloids (data-driven) and 27 Centiloids (visual reads). Findings from a double-cutoff analysis suggest that scans in the 11 to 26 Centiloid range should be interpreted with caution depending on the context of use.

Abstract Background Ten years after the original publication, the Centiloid framework is now broadly used to harmonize amyloid‐PET quantification, facilitate data sharing and comparison across cohorts, and even assist visual interpretation in clinical settings. We evaluated the global implementation of Centiloids by comparing their distribution and corresponding positivity thresholds across cohorts. Methods We gathered data from publicly available cohorts and reached out to investigators across the world to collect cross‐sectional Centiloids, demographic and clinical information, and visual read data. Gaussian mixture models (GMM, k=2) were fitted to Centiloid values for each cohort and cutoffs were calculated as mean + 2SD of the lower Gaussian. When visual reads were available, we determined Centiloid cutoffs that maximized correspondence with visual reads (Cohen's kappa). Data was combined across cohorts using random effects meta‐analyses. Results As of January 2025, we included 37 cohorts ( n = 41,678 participants) with heterogeneous pipelines, radiotracers, and clinical and demographic characteristics (Table‐1). The low Gaussian peaks ranged from ‐9 to 10CL; the meta‐analysis identified a common peak at 1CL. The second peaks were more heterogeneous (range=38‐102CL; meta‐analysis outcome=64CL). Across cohorts, the proportion of cognitively unimpaired versus impaired participants impacted the position of both peaks, with better separation in cohorts enriched in impaired individuals (Figure 1C). The meta‐analysis indicated a GMM‐based cutoff of 19CL (95%CI: 16‐21CL, Figure 1B); subgroup analyses showed no evidence of significant effect between single versus multicenter settings (17 versus 20CL, p = 0.30), MRI‐based or PET‐only processing (18 versus 19CL, p = 0.88), and no evidence of difference across radiotracers (Flutemetamol: 16CL; PIB: 17CL, Flutafuranol: 18CL, Florbetaben: 19CL, Florbetapir: 20CL, p = 0.78). In a subset of 29,496 participants with visual reads available, binary visual reads corresponded well to Centiloids (common kappa=0.86, Figure 2A). The visual read‐based cutoff of 24CL (95%CI: 21‐27CL, Figure 2B) maximized correspondence between visual read and quantification and was slightly higher than the GMM‐based cutoff. All meta‐analysis models showed high non‐random heterogeneity (I 2 >80%) across studies, suggesting non‐random differences in peaks and cutoffs. Conclusions Meta‐analysis‐based cutoffs align well with thresholds from the existing literature. High heterogeneity among studies underscores the need to investigate contributing factors, raising concerns about applying common cutoffs.

Abstract Background Sex, education and race/ethnicity are all associated with risk of Alzheimer's disease dementia. Here, we assess the effects of self‐reported sex, educational attainment and race/ethnicity on amyloid‐positivity, and tau‐PET‐positivity in 12,048 (7,394 cognitively unimpaired [CU], 2,177 MCI, and 2,477 dementia) individuals from 42 cohorts worldwide. Method Logistic generalized estimating equations were used to estimate frequency of amyloid‐positivity (using cohort‐specific thresholds for amyloid‐PET [84%] or CSF) and tau‐PET‐positivity (cohort‐specific thresholds of 2SD above mean temporal uptake in amyloid‐negative controls). We assessed: i) sex and APOEε4 ( N = 10,098) associations, to complement earlier findings of a higher frequency of tau‐positivity in females, ii) effects of lower/higher education ( N = 10,970; cohort‐specific median‐split), and iii) effects of race/ethnicity (non‐Hispanic White [hereafter: White], N = 4880; Asian, N = 116; Black or African‐American [hereafter: Black], N = 353; Hispanic, N = 356, only from Northern‐American cohorts). Outcomes were frequency of amyloid‐positivity in CU individuals only, and tau‐PET‐positivity in both amyloid‐positive (AB+) CU and cognitively impaired (CI, i.e. MCI and dementia) individuals. Interaction effects on the relationship between age and amyloid/tau‐positivity were assessed and only retained in the models when significant. Result Female sex was associated with an APOEε4 ‐independent increased frequency of amyloid‐positivity (β=0.51[0.22], p = 0.02) in CU and increase of tau‐positivity in both AB+CU (β=0.27[0.08]) and AB+CI (β=0.37[0.08], both p <0.01). Remarkably, tau‐positivity frequencies of female APOEε4 non‐carriers were equivalent to male APOEε4 carriers in AB+CI (Figure 1). No significant sex* APOE interactions were observed. In CU, higher education was associated with lower amyloid‐positivity frequency (β=‐0.12[0.05], p = 0.02). In contrast, among AB+CU, there was an age*education interaction effect that indicated more pronounced age effects on tau‐positivity in individuals with higher education (age*education:β interaction =0.03[0.01], p <0.01). There were no education effects in AB+CI (Figure 2). In CU, an age*race/ethnicity interaction effect was observed across all non‐White groups compared to White (Hispanic:β interaction =‐0.05[0.01], p <0.01; Black:‐0.04[0.01], p <0.01; Asian:‐0.02[0.01], p = 0.04). This suggests that the impact of age on amyloid‐positivity was less pronounced in non‐White groups. Furthermore, in AB+CI, Hispanic ethnicity was related to higher tau‐positivity frequency than White (β=0.51[0.22], p = 0.02; Figure 3). Conclusion In this multi‐center initiative comprised of clinical and community‐based cohorts, we observed that self‐reported sex, educational attainment and race/ethnicity were related to positivity‐frequencies of Alzheimer's disease pathology.

Abstract Background The link between regional tau load and clinical manifestation of Alzheimer's disease (AD) highlights the importance of characterizing spatial tau distribution. In typical (memory‐predominant) AD, the spatial progression of tau pathology mirrors the functional connections from temporal lobe epicenters. However, atypical (non‐amnestic‐predominant) AD variants with heterogeneous tau patterns provide a key opportunity to assess the universality of connectivity as a scaffold for tau progression. Method We included tau‐PET data from 320 subjects with atypical AD, characterized by highly heterogeneous tau patterns ( n = 139 posterior cortical atrophy/PCA‐AD; n = 103 logopenic variant primary progressive aphasia/lvPPA‐AD; n = 35 behavioural variant AD/bvAD; n = 43 corticobasal syndrome/CBS‐AD) from 14 sites, with a subset of patients ( n = 78) having longitudinal tau‐PET data. As an independent sample, we further included regional post‐mortem tau stainings from 93 atypical AD patients from two sites ( n = 19 PCA‐AD, n = 32 lvPPA‐AD, n = 23 bvAD, n = 19 CBS‐AD). Gaussian mixture modeling was used to harmonize different tau‐PET tracers by transforming tau‐PET standardized uptake value ratios to tau positivity probabilities (a uniform scale ranging from 0% to 100%). Using linear regression, we assessed whether 1) brain regions with stronger functional connectivity showed greater covariance in cross‐sectional and longitudinal tau‐PET and post‐mortem tau pathology, and 2) functional connectivity of tau‐PET epicenters and tau‐PET accumulation epicenters was associated with cross‐sectional and longitudinal tau patterns. Result Tau‐PET epicenters—defined as the 5% brain regions with the highest tau load—aligned with clinical variants, e.g. a posterior pattern in PCA‐AD (“visual AD”) and left‐hemispheric temporal predominance in lvPPA‐AD (“language AD”) (Figure 1). More strongly functionally connected regions showed correlated concurrent tau‐PET levels, which was confirmed with post‐mortem data (Figure 2). Moreover, the connectivity profile of tau‐PET epicenters and accumulation epicenters corresponded to tau‐PET progression patterns (Figure 3). Conclusion Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that tau propagation occurs along functional connections originating from local epicenters, across all AD clinical variants. Since tau proteinopathy is a key driver of neurodegeneration and cognitive decline, this finding may advance personalized medicine and participant‐specific endpoints in clinical trials.

Abstract Background Ten years after the original publication, the Centiloid framework is now broadly used to harmonize amyloid‐PET quantification, facilitate data sharing and comparison across cohorts, and even assist visual interpretation in clinical settings. We evaluated the global implementation of Centiloids by comparing their distribution and corresponding positivity thresholds across cohorts. Methods We gathered data from publicly available cohorts and reached out to investigators across the world to collect cross‐sectional Centiloids, demographic and clinical information, and visual read data. Gaussian mixture models (GMM, k=2) were fitted to Centiloid values for each cohort and cutoffs were calculated as mean + 2SD of the lower Gaussian. When visual reads were available, we determined Centiloid cutoffs that maximized correspondence with visual reads (Cohen’s kappa). Data was combined across cohorts using random effects meta‐analyses. Results As of January 2025, we included 37 cohorts ( n = 41,678 participants) with heterogeneous pipelines, radiotracers, and clinical and demographic characteristics (Table‐1). The low Gaussian peaks ranged from ‐9 to 10CL; the meta‐analysis identified a common peak at 1CL. The second peaks were more heterogeneous (range=38‐102CL; meta‐analysis outcome=64CL). Across cohorts, the proportion of cognitively unimpaired versus impaired participants impacted the position of both peaks, with better separation in cohorts enriched in impaired individuals (Figure‐1C). The meta‐analysis indicated a GMM‐based cutoff of 19CL (95%CI: 16‐21CL, Figure‐1B); subgroup analyses showed no evidence of significant effect between single versus multicenter settings (17 versus 20CL, p = 0.30), MRI‐based or PET‐only processing (18 versus 19CL, p = 0.88), and no evidence of difference across radiotracers (Flutemetamol: 16CL; PIB: 17CL, Flutafuranol: 18CL, Florbetaben: 19CL, Florbetapir: 20CL, p = 0.78). In a subset of 29,496 participants with visual reads available, binary visual reads corresponded well to Centiloids (common kappa=0.86, Figure‐2A). The visual read‐based cutoff of 24CL (95%CI: 21‐27CL, Figure‐2B) maximized correspondence between visual read and quantification and was slightly higher than the GMM‐based cutoff. All meta‐analysis models showed high non‐random heterogeneity (I 2 >80%) across studies, suggesting non‐random differences in peaks and cutoffs. Conclusions Meta‐analysis‐based cutoffs align well with thresholds from the existing literature. High heterogeneity among studies underscores the need to investigate contributing factors, raising concerns about applying common cutoffs.

Abstract The link between regional tau load and clinical manifestation of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) highlights the importance of characterizing spatial tau distribution across disease variants. In typical (memory-predominant) AD, the spatial progression of tau pathology mirrors the functional connections from temporal lobe epicentres. However, given the limited spatial heterogeneity of tau in typical AD, atypical (non-amnestic-predominant) AD variants with distinct tau patterns provide a key opportunity to investigate the universality of connectivity as a scaffold for tau progression. In this large-scale, multicentre study across 14 international sites, we included cross-sectional tau-PET data from 320 individuals with atypical AD (n = 139 posterior cortical atrophy/PCA-AD; n = 103 logopenic variant primary progressive aphasia/lvPPA-AD; n = 35 behavioural variant AD/bvAD; n = 43 corticobasal syndrome/CBS-AD), with a subset of individuals (n = 78) having longitudinal tau-PET data. Additionally, as an independent sample, we included regional post-mortem tau stainings from 93 atypical AD patients from two sites (n = 19 PCA-AD, n = 32 lvPPA-AD, n = 23 bvAD, n = 19 CBS-AD). Gaussian mixture modelling was used to harmonize different tau-PET tracers by transforming tau-PET standardized uptake value ratios to tau positivity probabilities (a uniform scale ranging from 0% to 100%). Using linear regression, we assessed whether brain regions with stronger resting-state functional MRI-based functional connectivity, derived from healthy elderly controls in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), showed greater covariance in cross-sectional and longitudinal tau-PET and post-mortem tau pathology. Furthermore, we examined whether functional connectivity of tau-PET epicentres (i.e. the top 5% of regions with the highest baseline tau load) and tau-PET accumulation epicentres (i.e. the top 5% of regions with the highest tau accumulation rates) was associated with cross-sectional and longitudinal tau patterns. Our findings show that tau-PET epicentres aligned with clinical variants, e.g. a visual network predominant pattern in PCA-AD (‘visual AD’) and left-hemispheric temporal predominance, particularly within the language network, in lvPPA-AD (‘language AD’). Moreover, more strongly functionally connected regions showed correlated concurrent tau-PET levels (confirmed with post-mortem data) and tau-PET accumulation rates. The functional connectivity profile of tau-PET epicentres and accumulation epicentres corresponded to tau-PET progression patterns, with higher tau-PET levels and accumulation rates in functionally close regions, and lower tau-PET levels and accumulation rates in functionally distant regions. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that tau propagation occurs along functional connections originating from local epicentres, across all AD clinical variants. Since tau proteinopathy is a major driver of neurodegeneration and cognitive decline, this finding may advance personalized medicine and participant-specific end points in clinical trials.

AbstractBackgroundThere is a strong link between tau and progression of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), necessitating an understanding of tau spreading mechanisms. Prior research, predominantly in typical AD, suggested that tau propagates from epicenters (regions with earliest tau) to functionally connected regions. However, given the constrained spatial heterogeneity of tau in typical AD, validating this connectivity‐based tau spreading model in AD variants with distinct tau deposition patterns is crucial.MethodWe included 269 amyloid‐β‐positive (PET/CSF) individuals with clinically diagnosed atypical AD (113 posterior cortical atrophy, PCA‐AD; 83 logopenic variant primary progressive aphasia, lvPPA‐AD; 33 behavioural variant AD, bvAD; 40 corticobasal syndrome, CBS‐AD) and 68 with typical AD from 12 international cohorts, who underwent tau‐PET (54% [18F]AV1451/[18F]flortaucipir/Tauvid, 27% [18F]MK6240, 19% [18F]PI2620). Using Gaussian mixture modeling including amyloid‐β‐negative controls, cross‐sectional tau‐PET standardized uptake value ratios within Schaefer‐200 atlas regions were transformed to tau positivity probabilities. Tau epicenters were defined as the 5% regions with highest tau positivity probabilities. For each variant, the association between functional connectivity‐based distance (using the 30% strongest positive region‐to‐region connections of a group‐average connectivity matrix from ADNI elderly controls) and tau‐PET covariance (group‐average correlation per region pair) was assessed through linear regression, adjusting for age, sex, site, and Euclidean distance. Regions were categorized based on functional proximity to the epicenter (quartiles 1‐4) and tau positivity probabilities were assessed accordingly.ResultTau positivity probabilities matched clinical variants, with a posterior pattern in PCA‐AD, left‐hemispheric dominant pattern in lvPPA‐AD, widespread pattern in bvAD, sensorimotor cortex involvement in CBS‐AD, and temporo‐parietal predominance in typical AD (Figure 1). In line with this, tau epicenters were highly heterogeneous across variants (Figure 1). In all variants, greater tau‐PET covariance was associated with shorter functional connectivity‐based distance (Figure 2). We observed that regions in closer functional proximity to the epicenter exhibited higher tau positivity probabilities than regions functionally further away (p<0.05, Figure 3).ConclusionThis multi‐center study shows that the brain’s functional architecture serves as a universal predictor of tau spreading in AD. Since tau is a key driver of neurodegeneration and cognitive decline in AD, this finding holds potential for personalized medicine and defining participant‐specific endpoints in clinical trials.

AbstractBackgroundThere is a strong link between tau and progression of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), necessitating an understanding of tau spreading mechanisms. Prior research, predominantly in typical AD, suggested that tau propagates from epicenters (regions with earliest tau) to functionally connected regions. However, given the constrained spatial heterogeneity of tau in typical AD, validating this connectivity‐based tau spreading model in AD variants with distinct tau deposition patterns is crucial.MethodWe included 269 amyloid‐ß‐positive (PET/CSF) individuals with clinically diagnosed atypical AD (113 posterior cortical atrophy, PCA‐AD; 83 logopenic variant primary progressive aphasia, lvPPA‐AD; 33 behavioural variant AD, bvAD; 40 corticobasal syndrome, CBS‐AD) and 68 with typical AD from 12 international cohorts, who underwent tau‐PET (54% [18F]AV1451/[18F]flortaucipir/Tauvid, 27% [18F]MK6240, 19% [18F]PI2620). Using Gaussian mixture modeling including amyloid‐ß‐negative controls, cross‐sectional tau‐PET standardized uptake value ratios within Schaefer‐200 atlas regions were transformed to tau positivity probabilities. Tau epicenters were defined as the 5% regions with highest tau positivity probabilities. For each variant, the association between functional connectivity‐based distance (using the 30% strongest positive region‐to‐region connections of a group‐average connectivity matrix from ADNI elderly controls) and tau‐PET covariance (group‐average correlation per region pair) was assessed through linear regression, adjusting for age, sex, site, and Euclidean distance. Regions were categorized based on functional proximity to the epicenter (quartiles 1‐4) and tau positivity probabilities were assessed accordingly.ResultTau positivity probabilities matched clinical variants, with a posterior pattern in PCA‐AD, left‐hemispheric dominant pattern in lvPPA‐AD, widespread pattern in bvAD, sensorimotor cortex involvement in CBS‐AD, and temporo‐parietal predominance in typical AD (Fig.1). In line with this, tau epicenters were highly heterogeneous across variants (Fig.1). In all variants, greater tau‐PET covariance was associated with shorter functional connectivity‐based distance (Fig.2). We observed that regions in closer functional proximity to the epicenter exhibited higher tau positivity probabilities than regions functionally further away (p<0.05, Fig.3).ConclusionThis multi‐center study shows that the brain’s functional architecture serves as a universal predictor of tau spreading in AD. Since tau is a key driver of neurodegeneration and cognitive decline in AD, this finding holds potential for personalized medicine and defining participant‐specific endpoints in clinical trials.

Importance Since 2018, a movement has emerged to define Alzheimer disease (AD) as a purely biological entity based on biomarker findings. The recent revision of the Alzheimer’s Association (AA) criteria for AD furthers this direction. However, concerns about a purely biological definition of AD being applied clinically, the understanding of AD by society at large, and the translation of blood-based biomarkers into clinical practice prompt these International Working Group (IWG) updated recommendations. Objective To consider the revised AA criteria and to offer an alternative definitional view of AD as a clinical-biological construct for clinical use. The recommendations of the 2021 IWG diagnostic criteria are updated for further elaborating at-risk and presymptomatic states. Evidence Review PubMed was searched for articles published between July 1, 2020, and March 1, 2024, using the terms “biomarker” OR “amyloid” OR “tau” OR “neurodegeneration” OR “preclinical” OR “CSF” OR “PET” OR “plasma” AND “Alzheimer’s disease.” The references of relevant articles were also searched. Findings In the new AA diagnostic criteria, AD can be defined clinically as encompassing cognitively normal people having a core 1 AD biomarker. However, recent literature shows that the majority of biomarker-positive cognitively normal individuals will not become symptomatic along a proximate timeline. In the clinical setting, disclosing a diagnosis of AD to cognitively normal people with only core 1 AD biomarkers represents the most problematic implication of a purely biological definition of the disease. Conclusions and Relevance The ultimate aim of the field was to foster effective AD treatments, including preventing symptoms and dementia. The approach of diagnosing AD without a clinical and biological construct would be unwarranted and potentially concerning without a clear knowledge of when or whether symptoms will ever develop. It is recommended that those who are amyloid-positive only and, more generally, most biomarker-positive cognitively normal individuals, should not be labeled as having AD. Rather, they should be considered as being at risk for AD. The expansion of presymptomatic AD is viewed as a better diagnostic construct for those with a specific pattern of biomarkers, indicating that they are proximate to the expression of symptoms in the near future.