Gulhati, Pat

2561 Background: Some cancers, including breast, ovarian, pancreatic, and prostate cancers, are traditionally considered “cold” tumors, less likely to trigger an immune response and/or respond to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). However, some patients with these cancer types may benefit from ICIs. Here we investigate if a high blood tumor mutational burden (bTMB-H) may predict benefit to ICIs in such tumor types. Methods: We retrospectively queried the Guardant Health database for patients with advanced breast (n = 8531), ovarian (n = 1106), upper GI/pancreatic (n = 5110), and prostate (n = 7153) cancer who had ctDNA next-generation sequencing (Guardant360, Redwood City, CA) as part of routine clinical care from 2020-2022. Mutation profiles were evaluated for patients with bTMB-H (based on previously reported 80th percentiles for each tumor type, breast ≥15.31mut/Mb, ovarian ≥14.98mut/Mb, pancreatic ≥11.36mut/Mb, prostate ≥13.4mut/Mb) vs those with bTMB below this threshold (bTMB-L). A subset of cases were analyzed in a multi-institutional clinical cohort with a bTMB of ≥10mut/Mb (n = 35). Results: bTMB-H was observed in 9.5% of patients with breast cancer, 5.1% ovarian, 2.0% pancreatic, and 4.4% prostate. Genes more often mutated in patients with pTMB-H vs pTMB-L in each cancer type included TP53 and PIK3CA in breast cancer; TP53 and CHEK2 in ovarian; ATM and CHEK2 in pancreatic; TP53 and AR in prostate (all p values < 0.01). Patients in the clinical cohort (n = 35) had a median age of 74 (range: 40-85) 29/35 White / 4/35 Black, 27 prostate, 1 breast, 3 upper GI. Patients underwent first ctDNA analysis after a median of 3 (range 0-11) lines of therapy. The median bTMB detected was 16.59 mut/Mb (range: 10.02-152.85); six patients (6/35) were MSI-H. Twenty-three patients received ICI after a median of 6 (range: 0-8) lines of therapy, either alone (9, 39%) or in combination with hormonal therapy (5, 22%), chemotherapy (3, 13%) or targeted therapy (6, 26%). The median time to progression on ICI was 5.0 (95% CI, 3.6-6.4) months and median duration of response was 19.8 months (12.1-20.2). The ORR for evaluable patients was 13% and 74% of patients had progressed on therapy at time of data cut-off. Conclusions: "Cold” tumors represent a meaningful portion of patients with advanced cancer in which ICIs are not typically leveraged, and ctDNA was a feasible tool for identifying patients with bTMB-H who achieved durable responses from ICI-based therapy. The efficacy in this clinical cohort of traditionally “cold” tumors approaches other pan-cancer cohorts that include more traditionally immunoresponsive tumor types; further research is warranted to explore predictive value of bTMB, including potential tumor-specific thresholds, for optimizing patient selection for ICIs.

Abstract Background Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels are used in conjunction with imaging to monitor response to systemic therapy in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). We sought to identify a threshold for CEA change from baseline to predict progressive disease (PD) in mCRC patients receiving first-line therapy. Methods Patients from trials collected in the ARCAD database were included if baseline CEA was at least 10 ng/mL and repeat CEA was available within 14 days of first restaging scan. Optimal cutoffs for CEA change were identified by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Prediction performance of cutoffs was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value. Analyses were conducted by treatment class: chemotherapy alone, chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody, and chemotherapy with anti-EGFR antibody. Results A total of 2643 mCRC patients treated with systemic therapy were included. Median percent change of CEA from baseline to first restaging for patients with complete response, partial response, or stable disease (non-PD) and PD was −53.1% and +23.6% for chemotherapy alone (n = 957) and −71.7% and −45.3% for chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody (n = 1355). The optimal area under the curve cutoff for differentiating PD from non-PD on first restaging was −7.5% for chemotherapy alone and −62.0% for chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody; chemotherapy alone, adjusted odds ratio = 6.51 (95% CI = 3.31 to 12.83, P &lt; .001), chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody, adjusted odds ratio = 3.45 (95% CI = 1.93 to 6.18, P &lt; .001). A 99% negative predictive value clinical cutoff for prediction of non-PD would avoid CT scan at first restaging in 21.0% of chemotherapy alone and 16.2% of chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody–treated patients. Among patients with stable disease on first restaging, those with decreased CEA from baseline had statistically significantly improved progression-free and overall survival. Conclusions Change in CEA from baseline to first restaging can accurately predict non-progression and correlates with long-term outcomes in patients receiving systemic chemotherapy.