Thouvenot, Éric

Objective We have previously identified male sex, younger age, and the presence of spinal cord lesions as independent factors that increase the 5‐year risk for evolution from radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) to multiple sclerosis. Here, we investigate risk factors for the development of a clinical event using a 10‐year, multinational, retrospectively identified RIS dataset. Methods RIS subjects were identified according to 2009 RIS criteria and followed longitudinally as part of a worldwide cohort study. We analyzed data from 21 individual databases from 5 different countries. Associations between clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics and the risk of developing a first clinical event were determined using multivariate Cox regression models. Results Additional follow‐up data were available in 277 of 451 RIS subjects (86% female). The mean age at RIS diagnosis was 37.2 years (range, 11–74 years), with a median clinical follow‐up of 6.7 years. The cumulative probability of a first clinical event at 10 years was 51.2%. Age, positive cerebrospinal fluid for oligoclonal bands, infratentorial lesions on MRI, and spinal cord lesions, were baseline independent predictors associated with a subsequent clinical event. The presence of gadolinium‐enhanced lesions during follow‐up was also associated with the risk of a seminal event. The reason for MRI and gadolinium‐enhancing lesions at baseline did not influence the risk of a subsequent clinical event. Interpretation Approximately half of all individuals with RIS experience a first clinical event within 10 years of the index MRI. The identification of independent predictors of risk for symptom onset may guide education and clinical management of individuals with RIS. ANN NEUROL 2020;88:407–417.

Background: Younger age, male sex and presence of spinal cord lesion(s) increase the risk of conversion from radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) to relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Elevated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHI3L1) levels predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to RRMS. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of CSF CHI3L1 in RIS patients for conversion to RRMS. Methods: We compared CSF CHI3L1 concentrations in RIS, CIS, RRMS and symptomatic controls (SCs). We analysed the influence of epidemiological, radiological and CSF parameters on the risk of clinical event. Results: A total of 211 patients (71 RIS, 48 CIS, 50 RRMS and 42 SC) were included. CSF CHI3L1 levels were lower in RIS than in RRMS and higher in RIS with positive CSF versus negative CSF and SC. The presence of at least one spinal cord lesion was the only independent predictor of faster conversion to RRMS. Association of high CSF CHI3L1 levels, positive CSF (presence of oligoclonal bands and/or an elevated IgG index) or four Barkhof criteria with any spinal cord lesion showed a tendency for reduced mean conversion time. Conclusion: CSF CHI3L1 correlates with positive CSF but is not an independent predictor of the risk of conversion from RIS to RRMS.