O’Rourke, Colm J.

Abstract Background and Aims Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a rare and aggressive malignancy originating from the bile ducts, characterized by a poor prognosis and limited treatment options. Potentially curative interventions include surgical resection with negative margins (R0) and liver transplantation. However, despite these treatments, the likelihood of post-surgical recurrence remains high, with 50–70% of patients experiencing disease recurrence within five years. This highlights the urgent need for reliable prognostic biomarkers to guide clinical decision-making and personalize postoperative care. Numerous prognostic biomarkers identified in tumor tissue for CCA have been proposed, but many studies suffer from limitations such as single-center designs, small patient cohorts, and semi-quantitative techniques such as immunohistochemistry. These methods often rely on observer interpretation and antibody specificity, which can compromise objectivity and reproducibility. To overcome these limitations, we aimed to identify and validate robust quantitative prognostic biomarkers for CCA by analyzing tumor mRNA expression, integrating them using machine learning (ML), and developing a web-based tool to predict tumor recurrence and overall survival (OS). Method A systematic literature review was conducted to identify candidate prognostic tissue biomarkers for CCA, which were further validated using Cox proportional hazards (PH) OS analyses in five independent transcriptomic cohorts. An international multicenter cohort of 221 patients undergoing tumor resection was assembled, and tumor mRNA expression was analyzed using high-throughput TaqMan OpenArray RT-qPCR. Associations between clinical and molecular features and recurrence-free survival (RFS) and OS were assessed using Cox PH analyses. Six ML survival models were trained and evaluated using nested cross-validation, followed by feature reduction. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were applied to assess feature importance and enhance model interpretability. Results Among 496 candidate CCA prognostic biomarkers identified from the literature, 52 showed prognostic value in Cox PH analyses across transcriptomic cohorts. In the multicenter validation cohort, integrative Cox PH analyses incorporating clinical variables and gene expression identified 11 genes significantly associated with RFS and 25 with OS. The 11 RFS-associated genes, combined with five clinical variables, were used to train six ML survival models, among which the random survival forest (RSF) model demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy. Following training of RSF models across all combinations of four genes and five clinical variables, and subsequent feature importance–based selection, a final model incorporating three genes (FSCN1, LDHA, and SLC2A1) and four clinical variables (CCA subtype, resection margin status, biological sex, and age at surgery) achieved a testing time-dependent AUC of 0.82. This model significantly stratified patients into high- and low recurrence-risk groups, with a median RFS (mRFS) of 8 months and 70 months, respectively. In addition, an OS prediction model using the same feature set achieved a testing AUC of 0.775 and significantly stratified patients according to 5-year OS risk, with a median OS (mOS) of 23 months in the high-risk group and 77 months in the low-risk group. Conclusion We identified and validated a robust panel of prognostic tissue biomarkers in patients with resected CCA. Integration of these biomarkers with clinical variables into ML-based prognostic models enabled accurate prediction of RFS and OS. The resulting web-based tool allows clinicians to input RT-qPCR results for the validated biomarkers and obtain precise, individualized prognostic predictions for postoperative recurrence and survival.

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma remains a highly heterogeneous malignancy that has eluded effective patient stratification to date. The extent to which such heterogeneity can be influenced by individual driver mutations remains to be evaluated. Here, we analyzed genomic (whole‐exome sequencing, targeted exome sequencing) and epigenomic data from 496 patients and used the three most recurrently mutated genes to stratify patients ( IDH , KRAS , TP53 , “undetermined”). Using this molecular dissection approach, each subgroup was determined to possess unique mutational signature preferences, comutation profiles, and enriched pathways. High‐throughput drug repositioning in seven patient‐matched cell lines, chosen to reflect the genetic alterations specific for each patient group, confirmed in silico predictions of subgroup‐specific vulnerabilities linked to enriched pathways. Intriguingly, patients lacking all three mutations (“undetermined”) harbored the most extensive structural alterations, while isocitrate dehydrogenase mutant tumors displayed the most extensive DNA methylome dysregulation, consistent with previous findings. Conclusion : Stratification of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients based on occurrence of mutations in three classifier genes ( IDH , KRAS , TP53 ) revealed unique oncogenic programs (mutational, structural, epimutational) that influence pharmacologic response in drug repositioning protocols; this genome dissection approach highlights the potential of individual mutations to induce extensive molecular heterogeneity and could facilitate advancement of therapeutic response in this dismal disease. (H epatology 2018).