Szuber, Natasha

Abstract Background: Young patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN), including essential thrombocythemia (ET), polycythemia vera (PV) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF), constitute a distinct, steadily growing subpopulation (Eur J Haematol. 2017;98:85). Most available data, including current prognostic models, are excerpted from older populations and may not accurately mirror the unique phenotypic and prognostic patterns seen in younger patients. The objective of the current study was to comprehensively assess the phenotypic features and long-term outcomes in MPN patients age ≤ 40 years. Methods: The study population was recruited from a master database of MPN patients seen at our institution between 1967 and 2017. Diagnoses were in accordance with 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Data was abstracted from the time of referral, which coincided in the majority with the time/within one year of diagnosis. Additional molecular data was obtained based on availability of next-generation sequencing (NGS) information. Conventional statistics was utilized for group comparisons and calculation of survival data. Results: The study population was recruited from a total of 3,023 MPN patients: 665 PV, 1076 ET, and 1282 PMF. Of these, 361 (12%) were ≤ 40 years of age at the time of initial diagnosis; the corresponding incidences were 12% in PV (n=79), 20% in ET (n=219) and 5% in PMF (n= 63). Young PV patients (n=79): Median age (range) was 32 years (18-40) and males constituted 54% (Table 1). Over a median follow-up of 11.3 years, fibrotic transformation rates were 22% vs 25% and 10% in those 41-60 and >60 years of age, respectively (P<0.001). Leukemic conversion rates were balanced across age categories (4% vs 5% vs 3% for successively older cohorts) (P=0.4). Interestingly, young patients had lower rates of arterial (P<0.001) and higher of venous thrombosis (P=0.01) prior to/at diagnosis vs older cohorts while events post-diagnosis were comparable across age groups (P=0.6). Young ET patients (n=219): Median age (range) was 32 years (18-40) with a minority (31%) constituted of males. During a median follow-up of 13 years, fibrotic progressions rates were 16% vs 16% and 9% in those aged 41-60 and >60 years, respectively (P<0.001). The leukemic conversion rate (2%) was analogous to that of older cohorts (5% and 3%, respectively) (P=0.1). Young patients also experienced significantly fewer arterial thrombotic events prior to/at diagnosis (6% vs 14% and 18%) and after diagnosis (8% vs 16% and 22%) compared to older cohorts (P<0.0001). Young PMF patients (n=63): Median age (range) was 37 years (19-40) with a preponderance of males (59%). High risk karyotype was not seen in young patients vs in 5% and 8% of those 41-60 and > 60 years of age, respectively (P=0.004). During median follow-up of 7.1 years, leukemic conversions were recorded in 10% of young patients vs 10% and 9% of respectively older cohorts (P=0.9). Young subjects also experienced fewer arterial thrombotic events prior to/at diagnosis (2% vs 6% and 13%) and lower rates of venous thrombosis after diagnosis (2% vs 10% and 4%) compared to cohorts 41-60 and > 60 years of age, respectively (P<0.0001). NGS data disclosed significant clustering of high risk molecular mutations with successively older subgroups (≤ 40 vs 41-60 vs > 60 years); ASXL1: 19 vs 40 vs 45% (P=0.005), SRSF2: 6 vs 8 vs 18% (P=0.0004), and U2AF1: 3 vs 11 vs 19% (P=0.004) (Table 1). Survival data Kaplan-Meier survival curves stratified by age bracket (≤ 40 vs 41-60 vs > 60 years) disclosed median OS in successively older age groups to be 37, 22, and 10 years for PV (Figure 1A), 35, 22, and 11 years for ET (1B), and 20, 8, and 3 years for PMF (1C); exposing significantly longer median survival estimates in younger patients, systematically across all disease subtypes (P<0.001). When appraised as a function of MPN subtype, survival data confirmed the significantly reduced OS in PMF relative to PV and ET (P<0.001), though PMF patients aged ≤ 40 years were still projected to have a reasonably favorable median life expectancy of 20 years (Figure 2). Conclusions: Young MPN patients comprise a unique disease subset defined by an attenuated-risk cytogenetic and mutational backdrop compared to their older counterparts. Caution must be exercised in counseling and managing this population as historical 'one-size-fits all' data fails to reflect the true natural history and disease biology in the young. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: Subnormal serum erythropoietin (EPO) level is widely accepted as a minor diagnostic criterion for polycythemia vera (PV) and has retained its value in the revised 2016 World Health Organization (WHO) classification scheme of myeloid neoplasms (Blood. 2016;127:2391). While over 80% of PV patients exhibit subnormal EPO values (Haematologica. 2004;89:1194), very little is known about the incidence, phenotypic connotation, or prognostic significance of serum EPO levels in essential thrombocythemia (ET). Methods: Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnosis of ET was in strict accordance with the 2016 WHO criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391) and only patients with EPO measurements at diagnosis or during their chronic phase were considered under the following provisions: i) no evidence of myelofibrotic or leukemic transformation; ii) no treatment with cytoreductive agents at the time of sample collection (and for those with EPO sampling at diagnosis, no prior exposure to cytoreductive therapy); iii) no hemoglobin levels below sex-adjusted values for anemia; and iv) systematic exclusion of all cases of masked PV. Serum erythropoietin levels were measured using Mayo-verified standard immune-enzymatic assay consistent with CLIA requirements with reference range between 4-21 mIU/mL. Standard statistical methods and time-to-event curves prepared using the Kaplan-Meier method were used to compare EPO-stratified groups. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software package was used for all analyses (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results: Among 177 informative ET patients (median age 51 years, range 18-88; 71% females), median serum EPO concentrations were 5.2 mIU/mL (range <1-25) overall and 2.6 mIU/mL (range <1-3.9) and 7.2 mIU/mL (range 4-25) in those with subnormal versus normal/above normal EPO levels, respectively (p<0.0001). The majority of EPO measurements were at the time or within one year of diagnosis (67%), with the remainder obtained at referral or during the chronic clinical course. Risk stratification disclosed low, intermediate, and high risk status in 45%, 33% and 23% of patients, respectively, with no appreciable differences between EPO-stratified subsets. Subnormal serum EPO levels clustered clinically with JAK2 mutations (95% vs 60%; p<0.0001), higher hemoglobin (median 14.7 vs 13.8 g/dl, range: 12.1-17.8 vs 12-17.1; p<0.0001) and leukocyte counts (median 9.7 vs 8.2 x 109/l, range: 4-28.1 vs 3.9-22; p=0.0001), and arterial thrombosis after diagnosis (13% vs 5%; p=0.04). In addition, all three documented conversions to PV (p=0.01) and none of the six fibrotic progressions (p=0.02) occurred in patients with subnormal serum EPO levels (Table 1). While serum EPO level had no bearing on overall survival data (p=0.41) (Figure 1A), subnormal circulating EPO concentrations were significantly associated with superior myelofibrosis-free survival (p=0.02) (Figure 1B) but conversely, inferior polycythemia-free survival (p=0.03) (Figure 1C). Conclusions: We conclude that subnormal serum EPO levels are relatively frequent in ET, cluster with disease features that are reminiscent of polycythemia vera, and might be associated with a lower risk of fibrotic progression. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: We have long introduced the concept of host genetic variations in the phenotypic diversity of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) (Blood 2008;111:2785). Previous studies have established an association between JAK2 mutations in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) and the germline GGCC (46/1) haplotype, which constitutes a string of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) near the JAK2 gene that are inherited together on chromosome 9p (reviewed recently;Int J Mol Sci. 2018; 19: 1152). In 2010, we reported an association between shortened survival in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and nullizygosity for the JAK2 46/1 haplotype (Leukemia 2010; 24:105), although our findings were not confirmed in another study (Leukemia 2010; 24:1533). Others have reported an association with splanchnic vein thrombosis, that was not accounted for by JAK2 mutations (Ann Hematol 2014;93:1845). In the current study, we have increased the number of informative cases to 414 (from 130 reported in 2010), in order to revisit with the phenotypic and prognostic relevance of the JAK2 46/1 haplotype in PMF. Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnoses PMF and its leukemic transformation were confirmed by both clinical and bone marrow examinations, in line with the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Screening for the JAK2 46/1 haplotype included rs12343867 SNP genotyping, as previously detailed (Leukemia 2010; 24:105), and using a commercially available TaqMan SNP genotyping assay (Applied Biosystems Inc., Foster City, CA, USA). Statistical analyses considered clinical and laboratory data collected at the time of initial PMF diagnosis or Mayo Clinic referral point. Conventional statistics was used for confirming phenotypic associations and calculation of overall (OS) and leukemia-free (LFS) survival. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software from SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA, was used for all calculations. Results: 414 patients with PMF (median age 63 years; 63% males) were included in the current study; among 324 evaluable cases, MIPSS70+ version 2.0 risk distribution was 18% very high risk, 41% high risk, 19% intermediate risk, 18% low risk and 4% very low risk. Driver mutation distribution was 63% JAK2, 17% type 1-like CALR, 3% type 2-like CALR, 7% MPL and 10% triple-negative. JAK2 46/1 haplotype was documented in 69% of the study patients, including 25% in homozygous and 44% in heterozygous state. Driver mutation frequency in patients homozygous/heterozygous/nullizygous for the 46/1 haplotype was 78%/60%/56% JAK2, 10%/20%/18% type 1-like CALR, 3%/2%/5% type 2-like CALR, 4%/8%/7% MPL and 6%/10%/14% triple-negative (p=0.02). The three 46/1 haplotype groups were phenotypically mostly similar, with the exception of platelet count (p=0.02) and leukocyte count (p=0.003), which were both higher with homozygous 46/1 haplotype. In univariate analysis, nullizygosity for the JAK2 46/1 haplotype was associated with inferior overall survival (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.9; figure 1a); this survival effect was most pronounced in JAK2 mutated cases (figure 1b; p<0.001), as opposed to CALR/MPL mutated cases (figure 1c; p=0.48) or triple-negative cases (figure 1d; p=0.27). Multivariable analysis that included age and other genetic risk factors, including karyotype, driver mutational status and presence of high molecular risk mutations, such as ASXL1 and SRSF2, confirmed the independent prognostic contribution of nullizygosity for the 46/1 haplotype (p=0.02; HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.8). Nullizygosity for 46/1 also remained significant in the context of the recently unveiled genetics-based prognostic model, GIPSS (genetically-inspired prognostic scoring system) (p=0.04) (Leukemia.2018 doi: 10.1038/s41375-018-0107-z), but not in the context of MIPSS70+ version 2.0 (karyotype and mutation-enhanced international prognostic scoring system for transplant-age patients) (p=0.4). (JClinOncol.2018 doi: 10.1200/JCO.2018.78.9867). Leukemia-free survival was not affected by the 46/1 haplotype (p=0.6). Conclusions: The current study confirms the association of nullizygosity for the JAK2 GGCC (46/1) haplotype with inferior survival in PMF, primarily in JAK2-mutated cases; the observed survival effect was independent of currently acknowledged genetic risk factors, including karyotype and high molecular risk mutations. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: Current drug therapy in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) offers palliative value only, including alleviation of splenomegaly, constitutional symptoms and anemia; hydroxyurea (HU), JAK2 inhibitors and interferon (IFN)-α are used for splenomegaly; JAK2 inhibitors for constitutional symptoms; and immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs), erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and androgens for anemia. The current study constitutes a retrospective evaluation of specific drug response in anemia or splenomegaly in PMF. Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnoses were according to the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). For the purposes of the current study, conventional response criteria were modified to reflect clinical benefit assessment without strict adherence to criteria designed for clinical trials; accordingly, spleen response was evaluated only in patients with palpable splenomegaly and was defined as a minimum 50% reduction in palpable spleen size, regardless of response duration; anemia response was evaluated only in patients with hemoglobin level <10 g/dl and was defined as achieving transfusion-indpendence lasting for at least one month or an increase in hemoglobin of 2 g/dl, regardless of response duration. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software from SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA, was used for all statistical calculations. Results: 432 cytogenetically- and molecularly-annotated patients with PMF were accessed in order to identify 333 patients who received first-line treatment with HU (n=97), JAK2 inhibitors (n=41), IFN-α (n=22), IMiDs (n=58), androgens (n=19), ESAs (n=54) and various other drugs (n=42), and were evaluable for response; driver mutational status was JAK2 59%, CALR type 1/like 20%, CALR type 2/like 4%, MPL 7% and triple-negative 10%; karyotype included very high risk (VHR) 6%, unfavorable 18% and favorable 76%; 60% of the patients harbored high molecular risk (HMR) mutations including ASXL1 (45%), SRSF2 (18%), U2AF1Q157 (10%), EZH2 (4%), IDH2 (4%) and IDH1 (2%). MIPSS70+ version 2.0 risk distribution was very high 17%, high 46%, intermediate 21%, low 14% and very low 2%. Overall, 249 patients were evaluable for spleen response, including 218 that were treated with the specific drugs analyzed in the current study. Anemia response was evaluated in 222 patients, including 194 (105 transfusion-dependent) that were treated with the specific drugs analyzed in the current study. Predictors of response to HU: Spleen response to HU was more likely in the presence of HMR mutations (37% vs 11%; p=0.02); however, responses were mixed and limited to presence of ASXL1 (40% vs 17%; p=0.06) or SRSF2 (47% vs 22%; p=0.1) mutations while none of 8 patients with either U2AF1Q157 or IDH2 mutations responded. None of 5 patients with VHR karyotype and only 1 (9%) of 11 patients with platelet count <100 x 109/l responded. Anemia responses to HU were infrequent. Overall response rate to HU was predicted by the absence of U2AF1Q157 mutations (64% vs 0%; p=0.007). Predictors of response to JAK2 inhibitors: Spleen response to JAK2 inhibitors was more likely in female patients (87% vs 50%; p=0.01) and in the presence of CALR type 1/like mutations (90% vs 57%; p=0.06). Anemia responses to JAK2 inhibitors were largely unpredictable. In order to further verify the aforementioned observed associations, we accessed data from a previous formal clinical trial of momelotinib (JAK2 inhibitor); among 91 evaluable patients, spleen response was higher in the presence of CALR mutations (73% vs 37%; p=0.009) and female sex (49% vs 39%, p=NS). Predictors of response to other agents: Spleen response to IFN-α was unlikely in the presence of ≥2% circulating blasts (0/6 responded) or presence of ASXL1 mutations (0/7 responded). IFN-α was ineffective for the treatment of anemia. Spleen responses to treatment with IMiDs, androgens or ESAs were unusual while anemia response to all three agents was not predicted by either genetic or clinical markers. Conclusions: Our observations, which require additional examination in a prospective setting, suggest limited value of genetic and clinical markers in predicting response to currently available drugs for PMF; this is consistent with the non-specific mechanism of action for these drugs. CALR (JAK inhibitors) and U2AF1Q157 (HU) mutations respectively predict favorable or unfavorable spleen response. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: Type 1 calreticulin (CALR) variants comprise ~70% of all CALR mutations in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and form a distinct phenotypic and prognostic disease subset (Leukemia. 2014;28:1568). Determinants of long-term outcome have not, however, been systematically appraised in this population. The current study documents the natural history, molecular correlates, and independent predictors of overall (OS), leukemia-free (LFS), and thrombosis-free (TFS) survival in CALR type 1/like-mutated myelofibrosis. Methods: Patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnoses were consistent with World Health Organization (PMF, fibrotic/leukemic transformations) (Blood. 2016;127:2391) and International Working Group for Myeloproliferative Neoplasms Research and Treatment criteria (post-essential thrombocythemia (ET) MF) (Leukemia. 2008;22:437). Laboratory and clinical data were retrospectively abstracted corresponding to time of referral (PMF) or myelofibrotic transformation (post-ET MF). Conventional prognostic scoring was as previously outlined (Blood. 2010;115:1703; J Clin Oncol. 2018;36:1769). Recipients of allogeneic stem cell transplant were censored at the time of transplant. Standard statistical methods were used for all analyses using the JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software package (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Results: A total of 162 consecutive patients with CALR type 1/like-mutated myelofibrosis were identified: 139 (86%) with PMF and 23 (14%) with post-ET MF with median age 55 years (range 23-85), 62% male. The PMF and post-ET MF cohorts displayed similar phenotypic features with the exception of higher platelet counts (median 443 vs 340 x 109/l; P=0.02) in post-ET MF (Table 1). The most frequent co-existing mutations were ASXL1 (n=47; 37%) and SRSF2 (n=4; 3%), with ASXL1 seen more frequently in PMF (39% vs 11% post-ET MF; P=0.07). Over a median follow-up of 6 years (range 0-25 years), a total of 20 (12%) leukemic transformations and 66 (41%) deaths were recorded, with no significant differences between the PMF and post-ET MF cohorts (P=0.16 and 0.11, respectively). Kaplan-Meier survival estimates revealed comparably favorable median OS in both CALR type 1/like-mutated variants: not yet reached and 13 years in post-ET MF vs PMF, respectively (P=0.7) (Figure 1A). Multivariable analysis disclosed moderate to severe sex-adjusted anemia (P<0.001), ≥2% circulating blasts (P<0.001), very high risk (VHR) karyotype (P<0.001), age >70 years (P=0.006), and constitutional symptoms (P=0.008) to be independent predictors of inferior OS in CALR type 1/like-mutated PMF (Table 2). LFS was significantly shortened in the presence of IDH1 mutations (P=0.01) and platelets <100 x 109/l (P=0.02) while IDH2 mutations (P=0.02), leukocytosis ≥11 x 109/l (P=0.03) and history of arterial thrombosis (P=0.04) were independent predictors of shortened TFS. Importantly, myelofibrosis variant (primary vs post-ET) did not influence survival (P=0.7) or complication rates (P=0.8 for LFS, P=0.09 for TFS) (Table 2). The karyotype- and mutation-enhanced international prognostic scoring system (MIPSS70+ version 2.0), was effective in risk stratifying type 1/like CALR-mutated PMF (P-values 0.01 to <0.0001), with the exception of low vs intermediate (P=0.22) and intermediate vs high risk (P=0.49) (Figure 1C). The detrimental influences of unfavorable/VHR karyotype and ASXL1 mutations were confirmed (Figure 2A-B) while borderline adverse and prognostically neutral effects were seen on OS for U2AF1 (n=116; P=0.05) and SRSF2 (n=120; P=0.98) respectively (Figure 2C-D). Conclusions: The current study documents analogous disease patterns in primary and post-ET CALR type 1/like-mutated MF and provides information on determinants of long-term survival. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: Current prognostic models in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) target overall survival (OS) and utilize MIPSS70 (mutation-enhanced international prognostic scoring system for transplant-age patients), MIPSS70+ version 2.0 (karyotype-enhanced MIPSS70) and GIPSS (genetically-inspired prognostic scoring system, which is based on mutations and karyotype) (JCO 2018;36:310; JCO doi: 10.1200/JCO.2018.78.9867; Leukemia. 2018;doi:10.1038/s41375-018-0107). In the current study, we used logistic regression statistics to identify risk factors for leukemic transformation (LT) within 5 years of diagnosis/referral (i.e. early events) and also performed Cox regression analysis of overall leukemia-free survival (LFS). Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. Diagnoses of LT and chronic phase PMF were confirmed by both clinical and bone marrow examinations, in line with the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391); specifically, LT required presence of ≥20% blasts in the peripheral blood (PB) or bone marrow (BM) (Blood 2016;127:2391). Statistical analyses considered clinical and laboratory data collected at the time of initial PMF diagnosis or Mayo Clinic referral point. Logistic regression statistics was used to identify predictors of LT at 5 years from initial diagnosis/referral; in the particular method, patients with documented LT within 5 years were "uncensored" while those followed up for at least 5 years, without developing LT, were "censored"; the analysis excluded patients without LT and not followed for at least 5 years. In addition, Cox regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for overall LFS. The JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software from SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA, was used for all calculations. Results: 1,306 patients with PMF (median age 65 years; 63% males) were included in the current study; MIPSS70+ version 2.0 risk distribution was 20% very high risk, 41% high risk, 19% intermediate risk, 16% low risk and 4% very low risk. 149 (11%) patients were documented to experience LT, and compared to the remaining patients (n=1157), they were more likely to be males (p=0.02) and mutated for ASXL1 (p=0.01), SRSF2 (0.001) and IDH1 (0.02) and present with higher risk MIPSS70+ version 2.0 (p=0.02). Multivariable logistic regression identified the following as predictors of LT in the first 5 years of disease: IDH1 mutation (odds ratio; OR 78.4), very high risk (VHR) karyotype (OR 57.6), ASXL1 mutation (OR 15.1), age >70 years (OR 13.3), SRSF2 mutation (OR 8.5), male sex (OR 6.9), PB blasts ≥3% (OR 5.4), presence of moderate or severe anemia, adjusted for sex (OR 3.6) and constitutional symptoms (OR 3.1). On Cox regression analysis, the following were associated with inferior LFS: IDH1 mutation (HR 4.3), PB blasts ≥3% (HR 3.3), SRSF2 mutation (HR 3.0), age >70 years (HR 2.1), ASXL1 mutation (HR 2.0) and presence of moderate or severe anemia, adjusted for sex (HR 1.9). Subsequently, HR-based risk point allocation resulted in highly discriminating LT predictive model with HR (95% CI) of 39.4 (10.8-114) for high risk and 4.1 (2.4-7.3) for intermediate risk (Figure 1). Conclusions: The current study identifies IDH1 mutation as a main predictor of LT in PMF. Our study also implicates SRSF2 and ASXL1 mutations and VHR karyotype as other genetic markers of early LT. Other independent contributors of early LT and inferior LFS, overall, included PB blasts ≥3%, moderate to severe anemia and older age. We provide LT prediction model, based on these variables, with leukemia risk ranging from 8% to 57%. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background : Thrombosis is a characteristic feature in essential thrombocythemia (ET) and polycythemia vera (PV). Previous studies had focused on thrombotic events occurring after diagnosis and did not always distinguish between arterial and venous thrombosis. Arterial thrombosis in ET has been associated with age >60 years, JAK2 mutations, leukocyte count >11 x 109/l, history of thrombosis and cardiovascular risk factors, and venous thrombosis with male sex (Blood 2011;117:5857). In the current two-enter study, we looked for associations between both driver and other mutations, with first incidences of arterial and venous thrombosis in ET and PV, analyzed together and separately. Methods : Study patients were recruited from the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA and the University of Florence, Florence, Italy, based on availability of next-generation sequencing-derived mutation information. Diagnoses were according to the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Conventional statistics was employed to examine significance of associations, with separate analysis of arterial vs venous thrombosis, occurring at any time before or after formal diagnosis of ET or PV. For the purposes of the current study, only first events were considered. Results: 906 molecularly-annotated patients (416 from Mayo and 490 from Florence), including 502 ET and 404 PV cases, were included in the current study. The Mayo/Florence cohorts included 270/232 ET (median age 57/54 years, 60%/59% females) and 146/258 PV (median age 63/58 years, 52%/44% females) patients; median follow-up was 9.9/12.9 years for ET and 10.7/12.4 years for PV. Driver mutation distribution in ET was 55% JAK2, 27% CALR, 5% MPL and 13% triple-negative. Most frequent mutations, other than JAK2/CALR/MPL, were TET2 (14%; 11% in ET and 18% in PV) and ASXL1 (13%; 13% in ET and 13% in PV). 301 (33%) patients experienced first time thrombosis, before or after diagnosis, including 152 (30%) in ET and 149 (37%) in PV (p=0.03); arterial events occurred in 174 (19%) patients, including 96 (19%) in ET and 78 (19%) in PV (p=0.9); venous events occurred in 177 (20%) patients, including 82 (16%) in ET and 95 (24%) in PV (p=0.007). The number of vascular events after diagnosis was 174 (19%) for arterial and 154 (17%) for venous thrombosis, with no significant difference between ET and PV. Associations with arterial thrombosis: In multivariable logistic regression analysis that included both ET and PV (n=906), age >60 years (23% vs 16%; OR, 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.2) and absence of ASXL1 and RUNX1 mutations (21% vs 9%; OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.8) were associated with arterial thrombosis; these associations remained significant (or near significant) when ET and PV were analyzed separately; in addition, JAK2 mutations in ET displayed borderline significance (p=0.05). Overall incidence of arterial events in ET was estimated at 27% in the presence of all three risk factors (i.e. older age, presence of JAK2 mutations and absence of ASXL1/RUNX1 mutations), 21% with two risk factors, 13% with one risk factor and 9% in the absence of all three risk factors (p=0.01). Associations with venous thrombosis: In multivariable analysis, including both ET and PV (n=906), JAK2 mutations (p<0.001), higher leukocyte count (p=0.03) and younger age (p=0.04) were identified as being significant. Analysis of ET patients only (n=502) identified JAK2 mutations (p<0.001; OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4-4.1), absence of SRSF2 mutations (p=0.03) and younger age (p=0.04) as independent risk factors and in PV patients (n=404), higher leukocyte count (p=0.06). Prognostic interaction between JAK2 mutations and age: In ET, the overall frequency of venous events was 27% for young patients with JAK2 mutations vs 13% for older JAK2 mutated cases vs 10% for JAK2 unmutated young patients vs 13% for JAK2 unmutated older patients (p<0.001). The corresponding percentages for arterial events were 20%, 24%, 14% and 19%, respectively (p=0.1). Conclusions: JAK2 mutations contribute to the risk of both venous (younger patients) and arterial (young and older patients) thrombosis, in an age-dependent manner; the association with venous thrombosis might explain the higher incidence of venous thrombosis in PV, compared to ET. Additional studies are required to confirm the observed lower risk of thrombosis in patients with ASXL1, RUNX1 and SRSF2 mutations and provide insight into the underlying biological explanation. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract Background: While several population-based studies have reported on adverse outcomes and life expectancy in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) (JCO. 2015;33:2288; AJH. 1999;61:10; Leukemia. 2013;27:1874; JCO. 2012;30:2995), large-scale studies reporting mature data have been rare and important questions remain unanswered. The current study documents the Mayo Clinic (MC) decades-long experience with over 3,000 consecutive MPN patients including polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF) with the majority of patients followed until death. Herein, we provide mature, and importantly, risk-stratified survival data and disease complication estimates. Methods: Study patients were recruited from MC, Rochester, MN, USA between 10/27/1967 and 12/29/2017. All MPN diagnoses and documentation of fibrotic/leukemic transformations were in accordance with the 2016 World Health Organization criteria (Blood. 2016;127:2391). Clinical and laboratory data were abstracted from medical records. Risk-stratification used conventional risk models considering age, leukocytes, and venous thrombosis for PV (Leukemia. 2013;27:1874), international prognostic score for ET (Blood. 2012;120:1197), and dynamic international prognostic scoring system for PMF (Blood. 2010;115:1703). Statistical analyses were based on parameters obtained at the time of referral to MC which, in the majority of cases, coincided with or was within 1 year of diagnosis. All patients were followed from diagnosis until death or date of last follow-up/contact. Recipients of allogeneic stem cell transplants were censored at the time of transplant. Standard statistical methods and time-to-event curves prepared using the Kaplan-Meier method were used to compare MPN subgroups. Survival data for low-risk ET/PV were compared with age- and sex-matched controls from Olmstead County, MN, USA. JMP® Pro 13.0.0 software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) was used for all analyses. Results: 3,023 consecutive patients (median age 62 years, range 18-96; 51% males) were considered, including 89% diagnosed within the year: 665 PV, 1076 ET and 1282 PMF. Conventional risk stratification in 2925 evaluable patients revealed low, intermediate, and high-risk status in 26%, 29%, and 45% of PV and 30%, 42%, and 28% of ET patients, respectively, while PMF cases were attributed low (14%), intermediate-1 (38%) -2 (40%) and high (8%) risk (Table 1). After a median follow-up of 8.2 years for PV (range 0-39), 9.9 for ET (range 0-47), and 3.2 for PMF (range 0-31), 1631 (54%) deaths, 183 (6%) leukemic transformations, 244 (14%) fibrotic progressions, and 516 (17%) thrombotic events were recorded (Table 1). Median overall survival (OS) was 18 years for ET, 15 for PV and 4.4 for PMF (p<0.05 for all inter-group comparisons) (Figure 1A). Leukemia-free survival was similar for ET and PV (p=0.22) and significantly worse for PMF (p<0.001) (Figure 1B). PV, compared to ET, was associated with higher risk of fibrotic progression (p<0.001) (Figure 1C). Thrombosis risk after diagnosis was highest in PV and lowest in PMF (p=0.002 for PV vs ET; 0.56 for ET vs PMF; and 0.001 for PV vs PMF) (Figure 1D). Following risk stratification, median OS in low-risk ET (28 years) and low-risk PV (27 years) were superimposed (p=0.89) (Figure 2). Similarly, intermediate or high-risk PV and ET patients had comparable OS within each risk strata (p=0.23 and 0.11, respectively). Low-risk PMF survival was analogous to that of intermediate-risk PV (p=0.06). All other risk-stratified categories disclosed significantly different inter- and intra-group survival patterns (p<0.001) (Figure 2). Despite their categorization as favorable-risk disease, both low-risk ET and low-risk PV displayed excess mortality relative to age- and sex-matched controls with median survival of 26.7 and 28.1 years respectively, compared to the expected 37.5 and 39.2 years (p<0.001) (Figure 3). Conclusions: The current study provides large-scale and uniquely mature survival and outcomes data in MPN and highlights MPN subgroup risk categorization as cardinal in appraising disease natural history. Interestingly, OS was only marginally better in ET, compared to PV, while the latter clearly displayed a higher risk of thrombosis and fibrotic progression. Moreover, data disclosed shortened life expectancy relative to matched controls even in MPN with favorable risk attribution. Disclosures Busque: BMS: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy; Paladin: Consultancy.

AbstractFirst‐line cytoreductive drug of choice in high risk essential thrombocythemia (ET) is currently hydroxyurea, a practice based on the results of a randomized study; second‐line drugs of choice include pegylated interferon‐α, busulfan and anagrelide. Anagrelide clinical trials were pioneered by the late Murray N. Silverstein (1928‐1998) of the Mayo Clinic whose studies led to FDA approval in March 1997. The current study represents a retrospective examination of the potential impact of anagrelide therapy on survival and disease complications in ET. 1076 patients with ET were considered (median age 58 years; females 63%); risk distribution, according to the international prognostic score for ET (IPSET), was 28% high, 42% intermediate, and 30% low. Overall (OS), myelofibrosis‐free (MFFS) and thrombosis‐free survival data were compared for ET patients diagnosed before and after the 1997 FDA approval date for anagrelide; a significant difference was apparent in OS (P = .006; HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1‐1.7) and MFFS (P < .001; HR 4.2, 95% CI 2.7‐6.5), in favor of patients diagnosed prior to 1997; the difference was sustained during multivariable analysis that included IPSET. Similarly stratified survival data in polycythemia vera (n = 665) and primary myelofibrosis (n = 1282) showed no similar impact on survival (P = .3 and .17, respectively). The current study represents a retrospective analysis and suggests significantly decreased OS and MFFS in ET patients diagnosed after the FDA approval date of anagrelide. Whether or not anagrelide therapy was to blame for the worsening of OS and MFFS over time cannot be assumed and requires validation in a prospective study.

Key PointsSerum albumin and cholesterol levels predict survival in primary myelofibrosis, independent of each other and contemporary risk models. The cachexia index, determined by serum albumin and cholesterol levels, might further refine current prognostic models in myelofibrosis.