Gertz, Morie A.

Abstract Background: The presence of circulating myeloma cells (CMC) detected by flow cytometry at the time of diagnosis of multiple myeloma is associated with a shortened response to therapy and reduced overall survival (OS). We hypothesized that the presence of CMC at the time of stem cell collection prior to high dose therapy (HDT) and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) would identifies a cohort of patients with a high risk of rapid progression. Methods: The Mayo Clinic myeloma transplant database was queried for patients who were mobilized using cyclophosphamide and hematopoietic growth factors. CMC was determined using flow cytometry by gating on a population of CD38 bright and CD45 negative cells. The impact of CMC on OS and time to progression (TTP) and its role in the context of established prognostic parameters was evaluated. Results: Of 246 patients with MM undergoing ASCT, 95 had CMC. Patients with CMC had significantly higher plasma cell labeling index, adverse cytogenetics, B2-M and resistant disease. Complete response (CR) rates post transplant were 32% and 36% for patients with and without CMC (p=0.5034). OS was 33.2 and 58.6 months (p=0.0052) while TTP was 14.1 and 22 months respectively (p=0.0005). Figure Figure On multivariate analysis, CMC remained an independent prognostic factor in a model that included cytogenetics and disease status at time of transplant (p=0.0314). A prognostic system based on the presence or absence of CMC and karyotype abnormalities was developed. Patients with neither, one or both parameters had a median, OS of 55, 48 and 21.5 months respectively (p<0.0001) while TTP was 22, 15.4 and 6.5 months for the same groups (p<0.0001). Conclusion: The presence of CMC at the time of HDT and ASCT is an independent prognostic factor. The combination of CMC and cytogenetics provides a simple yet powerful scoring system that stratifies patients and guides their management.

Abstract Background: Thalidomide and dexamethasone combination has been shown to be an effective therapy for multiple myeloma (MM). In newly diagnosed patients with MM, the combination results in overall response rates of over 70% of patients. However, a considerable number of patients do not respond and will need to proceed to other therapies. The ability to identify patients who are unlikely to respond to particular therapies will allow tailoring of therapeutic approaches and in turn will reduce unnecessary toxicity and morbidity from lack of rapid disease control. With the availability of new technology such as gene expression profiling (GEP), this has become a possibility. We employed this approach to identify genes that can reliably predict lack of response to the thalidomide dexamethasone combination. Methods: Patient samples from the Eastern Co-operative Oncology Group clinical trial (E1A00), that compared thalidomide-dexamethasone combination with dexamethasone, and patient samples from the phase II Mayo Clinic study of thalidomide and dexamethasone, both for newly diagnosed MM, were used for this study. Thirty newly diagnosed patients who were evaluable for response were included in the analysis. GEP was performed using the Affymetrix U133A microarray platform as per manufacturer’s recommendation. The Affymetrix output (CEL files) was imported into Genespring 7.2 (Agilent Technologies) microarray analysis software, normalized across chips using GCRMA followed by per gene normalization to median. For the purposes of this study, responses were defined as reduction in the serum paraprotein (or the urinary M protein in the absence of a serum M protein) of >=50% (PR), 25 to 49% (MR), increase of >=50% (PD) and stable disease for the remaining. Results: Five of the 30 patients had no response to the thalidomide Dexamethasone therapy. Using the class prediction tool available in Genespring (Support Vector Machines), we identified 25 genes that reliable predicted non responders (PD, NC) from the responders (MR, PR, and CR). See table for a list of predictive genes with identified genes. Conclusion: Using a combination of two datasets we have identified a set of genes that can be used to reliably predict lack of response to thalidomide and dexamethasone in patients with newly diagnosed MM. We think that this represents a step towards creation of custom microarrays spotted with genes that are capable of predicting lack of response (or response) for the purpose of tailoring therapy to the patient. Gene Predictive strength hypothetical protein FLJ20719 1.655 Tubulin alpha 6 1.653 SEC3-like 1 (S. cerevisiae) 1.649 Ribosomal protein L18 1.546 Ribosomal protein L4 1.432 Tubulin alpha 6 1.409 cleavage stimulation factor 1.393 Tubulin, alpha, ubiquitous 1.393 CD99 antigen 1.38 hmel2 1.346 Leptin receptor 1.291 Integrin-linked kinaseSMC4 structural maintenance of chromosomes 4-like 1 1.269 Cornichon homolog 1.255 Williams-Beuren syndrome chromosome region 5 1.217 Ubiquitin specific protease 1 1.2 Sarcoma antigen NY-SAR-91 1.2

Abstract Background: Solitary plasmacytoma of bone (SBP) is a localized collection of monoclonal plasma cells that is potentially curable with local radiation therapy but associated with a high risk of progression to multiple myeloma. We hypothesized that an abnormal immunoglobulin free light (FLC) ratio at diagnosis may be a prognostic indicator of transformation risk. Methods: We identified a cohort of 133 patients with SBP for whom stored serum taken at the time of diagnosis was available. The diagnosis was ascertained and serum FLC determined in 126 patients. Results: From this cohort, 48 patients have progressed to myeloma and the median time to progression among those who progressed was 1.9 years. On univariate analysis, age (p<0.001), gender (p=0.035), abnormal FLC ratio at diagnosis (p=0.009) and persistence of serum or urine M-protein after therapy (p=0.0070 were all associated with a shorter overall survival (OS) and time to progression to multiple myeloma. Progression by Normal FLC(0.26–1.65) Progression by Normal FLC(0.26–1.65) On multivariate analysis, an abnormal FLC ratio retained its independence in a model that includes age at diagnosis but lost its significance when combined with persistence of the serum or urine M-protein. However, serum or urine M-proteins are not detectable in a significant number of patients with SBP and therefore not informative. Conclusion: The FLC ratio at the time of diagnosis of SBP is a powerful predictor of risk and a useful aid to management of patients with this condition.

Abstract Introduction: We previously reported that serum cardiac biomarkers are among the most powerful predictors of overall survival. This observation was based on outcomes of more than 300 patients with primary systemic amyloidosis (AL) receiving either low dose chemotherapy or high dose chemotherapy with peripheral blood stem cell transplant (PBSCT). Not all institutions use the N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) assay, but rather the B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) assay. We therefore determined the relative utility of BNP in patients with AL undergoing PBSCT and up-dated our results using our NTproBNP-troponin T staging system. Methods: Between 4/10/96 and 2/24/05, 164 patients with AL undergoing PBSCT had measurements of serum cardiac biomarkers. All BNP measurements were done on fresh serum (Biosite Inc., San Diego). The NTproBNP (Roche Diagnostics, Indianapolis, IN) and troponin T (TnT) (Roche Diagnostics, Indianapolis, IN) measurements were done on either stored serum or on fresh samples as previously reported. Follow-up for patients was through March 2005. Results: Between 5/1/03 and 2/15/05, 72 patients had BNP measurements pre-transplant. The median value was 167 pg/ml (range 5 to 7739). Forty-two of these patients also had an NTproBNP measured. There was good agreement between the two tests in the 42 patients that had both measurements (rho 0.823, p<0.0001). To further test the relationship between the two tests, we evaluated the correlation between BNP and NTproBNP using 204 simultaneous measurements from 106 patients (rho=0.89, p<0.0001). Next, we tested the prognostic utility of BNP. Using a cut-off point of 120 pg/L (the upper limit of normal for women over the age of 70 and the 50th percentile of all measurements in our data set), we found that BNP was prognostic for survival post-transplant. It was independent of TnT values, and patients could be divided into 3 risk categories using these two measurements (low risk if both values were low, high-risk if both were high, and intermediate if either was high). This system was highly predictive of overall survival (Figure A). We next compared the BNP-TnT staging system to our previously reported NTproBNP-TnT staging system in the 42 patients that had all 3 values pre-transplant. The correlation between the two staging systems was excellent (rho=0.91, p<0.0001). Follow-up for the 100 patients who had been reported previously is now 26.9 months. As shown in Figure B, the NTproBNP-TnT system predicts for overall survival post transplant. Conclusions: Serum levels of cardiac biomarkers are invaluable prognostic markers in patients with AL. Preliminary data would suggest that a BNP-TnT system is as useful as the NTproBNP-TnT system. Risk thresholds: BNP <120 pg/ml; TnT <0.035 ng/ml; NT-proBNP < 332 pg/ml BNP-TnT statisfaction: low risk, both low; high risk, both high; intermediate, either high. NT-proBNP-TnT satisfaction: low risk, both low; high risk, both high; intermediate, either high. Risk thresholds: BNP <120 pg/ml; TnT <0.035 ng/ml; NT-proBNP < 332 pg/ml BNP-TnT statisfaction: low risk, both low; high risk, both high; intermediate, either high. NT-proBNP-TnT satisfaction: low risk, both low; high risk, both high; intermediate, either high.

Abstract Waldenström’s macroglobulinemia (WM) is an incurable low-grade lymphoproliferative disorder characterized by bone marrow (BM) infiltration of a clonal population of small B-lymphocytes, plasmacytoid lymphocytes and plasma cells that secrete monoclonal IgM antibody. Because it is difficult to obtain tumor metaphases for karyotype studies, few recurrent chromosomal abnormalities have been reported and the genetic basis of the disease remains poorly defined. Therefore, we performed a comprehensive high-resolution study to identify genomic abnormalities involved in WM pathogenesis. Fifty-seven WM patients were analyzed using a combination of array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH)(N=42); gene expression profiling (GEP)(N=22), DNA sequencing (N=24) and cIgM-FISH (N=57). Agilent 244A and Affymetrix U133 platforms were used in the aCGH and GEP experiments, respectively. An NF-κB index was calculated from GEP data, as a surrogate marker of NF-κB transcription activity. NFKB2 sub cellular localization was determined by immunofluorescence staining. Overall, 83% of samples have aCGH defined chromosomal abnormalities, with a median of 3 abnormalities per patient (range 0 to 27). We identified 16 recurrent regions of copy number change found in >5% (3 or more patients); 10 deleted and 6 amplified regions. The most common abnormality was the entire or partial deletion of 6q, identified in 40% of cases. Four nonoverlapped minimal deleted regions were identified on 6q (MDR1 to MDR4), each of them being present in at least 14 of 17 patients with the abnormality. Gain of 6p was the second most common abnormality (17%) and its presence was always concomitant with 6q loss. Other recurrent deletions were 13q14 (10%) and 7q22, 8p, 11q22-q23, 11q23-q24 and 17p11-p13 (7% each). Copy gains were identified as partial or entire gains of chromosomes 18 (17%), 4 (12%) and 3 (10%), 8q (10%) and Xq27.1-q28 (10%). Three patients had either homozygous deletions or LOH with mutations affecting both alleles of TRAF3 on 14q32. TRAF3 inactivation was correlated with an increased NF-kB transcriptional signature and it was associated with activation of the non-canonical NFkB pathway. Additionally, we identified the inactivation of TNFAIP3, another negative regulator of the NF-kB pathways, in one of 24 patients. Finally, interstitial deletions identified in 4 patients at 13q14 identified a 1.1 Mb MDR, including MIRN15A and MIRN16-1. These findings confirm that focal 13q14 deletion is not restrict to B-CLL and that the MIRN15A/MIRN16-1 abnormalities might be common to several indolent B-cell diseases. Overall, we identified TRAF3 and TNFAIP3 inactivation in 5.3% and 2.4%, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing the inactivation of bona fide tumor suppressor genes in WM patients. Furthermore, these genes are negative regulators of NF-kB signaling pathway, highlighting its biologic importance in sustaining and limiting growth in WM. Mutational activation of this pathway, which is normally activated by ligand-receptor interactions within the BM microenvironment, suggest a therapeutic role for inhibitors of NF-KB pathway activation in the treatment of WM.

Abstract Introduction: The kidney is affected by immunoglobulin light chain amyloidosis (AL) in more than 50% of patients who present with the disease, but long-term predictors for and outcomes after renal replacement therapy have not been well described in this patient group Patients: 145 patients with AL who participated in Mayo Clinic treatment trials and were monitored for at least 11 years. No patient was lost to follow-up Results: Among patients presenting with renal AL, 42% ultimately received renal replacement therapy compared with 5% of patients who did not have an initial presentation involving the kidney. Table 1. Monoclonal Protein Studies in 145 Patients With Immunoglobulin Light Chain Amyloidosisa Patients, No. (%) Monoclonal Protein Renal Amyloid at Presentation (n=84) Nonrenal Amyloid at Presentation (n=61) a P=.02 l more likely to cause renal presentation None 7 (8) 2 (3) k 6 (7) 12 (20) l 71 (85) 47 (77) Table 2. Characteristics of All 145 Patients With Immunoglobulin Light Chain Amyloidosis Amyloid Renal (n=84) Nonrenal (n=61) P Value Abbreviations: IQR, interquartile range; NA, not applicable. a included in the definition of renal amyloidosis Patients with l immunoglobulin light chain amyloid were significantly more likely to have renal involvement and had significantly greater urinary protein loss than patients with κ or no monoclonal light chain amyloid Age, median (IQR), y 61 (52–67) 62 (55–68) .47 Sex, male/female 52/32 40/21 .72 24-hr urine protein loss, median (IQR), g/d 7.0 (4.4–11.7) 0.3 (0.1–6.4) NAa Creatinine, median (IQR), mg/dL 1.1 (0.9–2.2) 1.1 (0.9–1.3) .22 Cardiac involvement (yes/no) 35/48 48/16 .0001 Table 3 Distribution of Urinary Protein and Creatinine Based on Monoclonal Protein Monoclonal Protein Test k (n=18) l (n=118) None (n=9) P Value Abbreviation: IQR, interquartile range. Patients with renal amyloid who ultimately received dialysis support had significantly higher serum creatinine and 24-hour urine protein levels at presentation. Absence of cardiac involvement at diagnosis predicted an increased likelihood of dialysis All patients (N=145) 24-hr urine protein loss, median (IQR), g/d 0.73 (0.16–2.37) 3.61 (0.35–7.8) 5.68 (0.3–12.2) .001 Creatinine, median (IQR), mg/dL 1.1 (0.9–1.3) 1.1 (0.9–1.3) 1.5 (1.2–1.6) NS Patients with renal amyloid at presentation (n=84) 24-hr urine protein loss, median (IQR), g/d 2.93 (1.1–5.0) 7.2 (4.8–11.8) 7.8 (3.8–12.6) .04 Creatinine, median (IQR), mg/dL 1.0 (0.8–2.6) 1.1 (0.9–2.2) 1.5 (1.1–1.6) NS Table 4 Characteristics of 84 Patients Presenting With Renal Amyloidosis Dialysis Subsequently Not Required Characteristic Required (n=35) (n=49) P Value Abbreviation: IQR, interquartile range. The median time from diagnosis to dialysis was 29.5 months for those that went into renal failure.). However, the actuarial risk reached 50% at 12 years Kaplan-Meier failure curve demonstrating the actuarial time from diagnosis to the start of dialysis therapy N=145 For 38 patients who received dialysis, median survival from day 1 of dialysis was 10.4 months Kaplan-Meier survival of 38 patients from the start of dialysis therapy Age, median (IQR), y 60 (52–67) 62 (52–67) .90 Sex, male/female 21/14 31/18 .76 24-hr urine protein loss, median (IQR), g/d 7.4 (5.0–14.8) 5.9 (3.7–9.1) .03 Creatinine, median (IQR), mg/dL 1.4 (0.9–2.8) 1.1 (0.9–1.5) .01 Cardiac involvement (yes/no) 9/26 26/23 .01 Conclusion: In our study, 26% of all patients with AL ultimately received renal replacement therapy compared with 42% of patients who presented with renal AL specifically. The presenting 24-hour urine protein loss and creatinine values predict which patients will require dialysis. Median survival for patients starting dialysis is less than 1 year. Presence of l light chain amyloid predicts an increased likelihood of renal involvement and, when the kidney is affected, increased proteinuria.

Abstract Background: Traditionally response to therapy in multiple myeloma (MM) is based on changes in the serum and urine monoclonal protein by immunoelectrophoresis. Immunofixation allows for detection of small amounts of monoclonal protein that cannot be quantitated on immunoelectrophoresis. Serum immunoglobulin free light chain (FLC) assay allows for detection of unbound kappa and lambda free light chain and has allowed disease measurement in patients with oligosecretory myelomas and can potentially allow detection of low levels of tumor burden, below the threshold of the standard tests. We examined this hypothesis in patients who had obtained a negative immunofixation in serum and urine following treatment of their MM. Methods: For the purposes of the study, we included selected patients with MM who had measurable monoclonal (M) protein levels at baseline (defined as >1 gm/dL in the serum or >200 mg/24 hour in the urine or involved free light chain > 10 mg/dL) on protein electrophoresis; patients with non-secretory and oligo-secretory myeloma were excluded. We then identified patients who since 1995 had a negative immunofixation in the serum and urine, all done at the same time (within 30 days of each other). Baseline demographics and clinical characteristics; date of diagnosis, last follow up, and follow up status; serum and urine M protein levels at diagnosis; and results of serum and urine immunofixation, and serum free light chain (FLC) ratio within 30 days of the immunofixation were all collected from the existing databases. Results: Eighty-four patients met the criteria for the study, all of whom had measurable disease at baseline and subsequently achieved negative immunofixation in serum and urine. Among these, 46 patients (55%) also had a normal FLC ratio (K/L ratio; 0.26–1.65). Th median time from diagnosis to the documented immunofixation was 7.5 months (range, 1–157). The median overall survival from diagnosis among those with a normal FLC ratio along with negative immunofixation was not reached compared to 76 months for those with abnormal FLC ratio, P = 0.02. The median overall survival from the documentation of negative immunofixation was not reached for the group with normal FLC ratio compared to 46.5 months for those with an abnormal FLC, P = 0.03. Conclusion: Attainment of a normal FLC ratio at the time of serum and urine immunofixation negative status identifies a group of patients with better outcome. The presence of an abnormal FLC ratio likely represents persistence of the clonal population that is secreting none or very small amounts of monoclonal protein. The data presented here supports the inclusion of FLC measurements as part of response criteria for MM as has been done for the definition of stringent CR in the IMWG response criteria. Figure: Overall survival from diagnosis in patients with or with out a normal FLC ratio at the time of serum and urine immunofixation. Figure:. Overall survival from diagnosis in patients with or with out a normal FLC ratio at the time of serum and urine immunofixation.

Abstract Introduction: The Bone Marrow Transplant Program at Mayo Clinic (Rochester, Minnesota) developed a multidisciplinary approach (involving physicians, nurses, pharmacists, dietitians, and financial specialists) for outpatient management of patients undergoing stem cell transplantation. This approach uses an electronic ordering system for diagnostic tests and chemotherapy to minimize medical errors. Table. Patient Characteristics (N=716) Characteristic Value Male, no. of patients (%) 426 (59) Age, median (IQR), y 59 (53–65) Creatinine, median (IQR), mg/dL 1.0 (0.9–1.2) b2-Microglobulin, median (IQR), mcg/mL 2.5 (1.9–3.7) Gammopathies, no. of patients (%) Measured by serum immunofixation or immunoelectrophoresis IgA 148 (21) IgG 414 (58) IgM 6 (1) IgD 12 (2) Light chain 83 (12) Biclonal 6 (1) None 47 (7) Measured by urine immunofixation or immunoelectrophoresis k light chain 402 (56) l light chain 226 (32) Biclonal 1 (0) None 79 (11) Not performed (anuric) 8 (1) Status at stem cell transplant, no. of patients (%) Untreated 4 (1) Plateau 436 (61) Primary refractory 113 (16) Relapse after therapy 93 (13) Relapse during therapy 70 (10) Characteristic Value CD34+ cells, median (IQR), ×106/kg Collected, no. 10.0 (7.6–12.6) Infused, no. 4.7 (3.9–6.2) Sessions of apheresis, median (IQR) 3 (2–5) Engraftment, median (IQR), days after transplantation Neutrophils, 0.5×109/L 13 (12–15) Platelets, 50×109/L 16 (14–22) Duration of hospitalization, median (IQR), d 4 (0–10) Abbreviation: IQR, interquartile range. Results: During a 45-month period after implementation of the program (2005-Sept 2007), the day-100 survival rate was 99.5% for low-risk myeloma patients (transplantation during first plateau; n=202) and 97% for high-risk myeloma patients (refractory, relapsing or second or greater plateau; n=71). The overall day-100 survival rate was 99%(270/273). Analysis of hospitalization trends since inception of the program showed that 39% of patients completed the transplant procedure as outpatients. The median duration of hospitalization for all patients was 4 days; age and serum creatinine levels were predictive of the need for and duration of hospitalization Conclusion: Outpatient stem cell transplantation is feasible for patients with multiple myeloma with a therapy mortality of 1%. Nearly 40% of our patients completed the procedure without hospitalization. Age and serum creatinine levels predicted a higher likelihood of hospitalization. Implementation of out patient transplant requires affordable housing in the community since many third party payers do not support hotel costs despite the reduction of hospital days. The hospital physical plant and patient registration process has to support use of designated hospital rooms for purely out patient practice. The transplant team must have process owners to standardize across all disease categories collection protocols, conditioning regimens, infusion SOP’s and post infusion supportive care guidelines for standard antibiotics, narcotics, laboratory work and transfusion thresholds. A care team meeting between physicians, nursing, dietary, pharmacy, business office, data base and appointment coordinators is essential to coordinate all the multidisciplinary efforts. Kaplan-Meier curve shows the percentage of patients remaining in the hospital through time t, stratified on the basis of age greater than or less than or equal to 65 years Kaplan-Meier curve shows the percentage of patients remaining in the hospital through time t, stratified on the basis of age greater than or less than or equal to 65 years Kaplan-Meier curve shows the percentage of patients remaining in the hospital through time t, stratified on the basis of creatinine greater than or equal to or less than 1.5mg/dL Kaplan-Meier curve shows the percentage of patients remaining in the hospital through time t, stratified on the basis of creatinine greater than or equal to or less than 1.5mg/dL

Abstract Introduction: Currently, the most extensively tested treatments for immunoglobulin light chain amyloidosis (AL) are high dose melphalan followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and melphalan and dexamethasone (MDex). A recent randomized controlled trial comparing the two regimens showed MDex is at least equivalent if not superior to ASCT. Most patients with symptomatic systemic AL have a low plasma cell load; however, approximately 30% have bone marrow plasmacytosis greater than 20% but do not meet criteria for multiple myeloma with significant anemia or lytic bone disease. This leads to the speculation that the plasma cell biology (and therefore outcomes) might differ between low and high plasma cell burden AL. We undertook this study to address whether these two standard regimens are equally effective in AL patients with low and high plasma cell burden. Methods: Patients with confirmed AL treated with MDex were recruited for this study. Some of the patients treated were not ASCT candidates while others were eligible but favored MDex. Hematologic response was defined as 50% reduction in serum M-protein or 90% reduction in urine M-protein if one was present, otherwise a 50% reduction in serum free light chain levels was used. Organ involvement was defined according to the Consensus Opinion from the 10th International Symposium on Amyloid and Amyloidosis. Patients were separated into a high and a low marrow plasma cells (PC) group based on their percentage of bone marrow plasma cells. Cutoff for the bone marrow plasmacytosis was calculated using receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) were compared using Kaplan-Meier method. OS was also calculated for 342 AL patients treated with ASCT for comparison. Results: Seventy-three patients with AL received MDex between 05/01 and 05/07. Median follow-up was 16.8 months. At the time of the study, 42.5% had died. Calculating for OS and PFS, the best cutoff for bone marrow plasmacytosis was found to be 20%. In our cohort, 28.8% had >20% bone marrow plasmacytosis. Age (64.8 yr vs 61.0 yr, p = 0.61) and sex (81% male vs 63.4% male, p = 0.13) were similarly distributed between patients with high and low PC. Cardiac troponin T (cTnT) was also comparable between the 2 groups (0.03 ng/ml (high) vs 0.06 ng/ml (low), p = 0.41). Cardiac involvement were similar between high and low PC groups (78.9% vs 85.7% respectively, p = 0.49) but renal involvement was less common in the high PC group (70.6% vs 38.1%, p = 0.01). No differences were noted in the gastrointestinal and neurological involvement. Patients with high PC received a median of 4 cycles of MDex vs 5 in the low PC group (p = 0.68). Hematologic response was achieved in 75% of patients with high PC and 54.9% of the low’s (p = 0.11). A significant difference was noted in the PFS and OS between the 2 groups. The PFS and OS were 13.5m and 15.3m, respectively for patients with high PC but neither was reached in those with < 20% plasmacytosis (p=0.02 and p = 0.03 respectively). In the multivariate analysis, hematologic response, cardiac involvement and plasmacytosis >20% were independent predictors of PFS and OS. To determine if plasmacytosis had the same affect on survival of ASCT treated patients, 342 patients were analyzed. No relationship between OS and % of plasmacytosis was found. Conclusion: Our study suggests that ASCT and MDex may not be equivalent for all AL patients. Even though hematologic response rates were similar, patients with plasmacytosis >20% had a worse OS and PFS when treated with MDex. This disparity in survival was not evident in patients treated with ASCT. This effect was independent of cardiac involvement. If confirmed, this could have a significant impact on the choice of therapy for AL patients. The best therapy may be determined by the extent of marrow plasmacytosis, with higher plasma cells favoring high dose therapy.

Abstract Background: Outcome of patients with Multiple Myeloma (MM) is influenced by a variety of baseline prognostic factors, most importantly presence of chromosomal abnormalities. Nevertheless, these biologically determined risk-factors do not account for a significant subset of patients whose outcome varies greatly from what one expects based on the underlying prognostic characteristics. We have previously demonstrated that outcome in myeloma is dictated not only by baseline risk-factors but also response to therapy (R2, risk and response dependent outcome). We studied response duration following initial therapy as a prognostic factor for long-term overall survival in myeloma in three ECOG clinical trials that enrolled patients with newly diagnosed myeloma. Methods: Data from three studies with long-term, mature follow up were analyzed: E9486, E5A93, and E1A00. The regimens used in these studies included Thalidomide/Dex, Dex, VBMCP, VBMCP + alpha-IFN, and VBMCP + Cyclophosphamide. Among progressed/relapsed patients, the association between time to progression and overall survival since relapse was explored using Cox proportional hazards model, in which time to progression was analyzed as a continuous variable. In addition, the association between response duration and overall survival since relapse was explored similarly among relapsed responders. Treatment effect and calendar time of diagnosis have been adjusted in the model. Also, to determine the best cut off point associated with the best differentiation of patients with short OS after relapse, an outcome-oriented method using log likelihood value was applied. Results: Among the 1136 patients enrolled in the three studies, 625 patients who have documented disease relapse have been included in the current study. Of these, 471 patients had responded to the treatment before relapse. Only 33 patients are alive as of Dec., 2007. For all 625 patients, the time to progression (continuous variable) was significantly associated with overall survival from the time of relapse/progression (P<0.0001), with hazard ratio of 0.77 (95%CI: 0.72~0.81) at time to progression increasing by 1 year (i.e., the later the progression/relapse, the lower the risk). The best cutoff point of the time to progression is 3 yrs (the 75th percentile). The hazard ratio of patients progressing within 3 yrs since randomization vs. after 3 yrs is 2.4 (95% CI: 1.9 ~ 2.9) and P-value<0.0001. The median OS from relapse was 0.96 years for the former vs. 2.43 years in the latter group (Figure). Among the 471 relapsed responders, the response duration (continuous variable) was also significantly associated with overall survival since relapse (P<0.0001), with hazard ratio of 0.76 (95%CI: 0.70~0.81) at response duration increasing by 1 year (i.e., the longer the response duration, the lower the risk). The effects seen with each regimen are detailed in the table. The best cutoff point of the response duration is 2 yrs (median). The hazard ratio of patients with response duration less than or equal to 2 yrs vs. more than 2 yrs is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.7 ~ 2.6) and P-value<0.0001. Conclusions: Among patients treated with alkylator based therapy, the duration of response from the initial therapy is an important predictor of the subsequent outcome among patients with myeloma. Given the heterogeneity of the disease and imprecise predictive ability of the known baseline prognostic factors, the duration of response to initial therapy should be taken into account, to deliver risk and response-adapted therapy. The prognostic value of this feature across different clinical trials, points towards the role of underlying disease biology, both disease aggressiveness and ability to rapidly develop resistance to therapies as two important determinants of outcome. Table 1: Hazard ratio of overall survival since relapse for patients progressed within 3 yrs since randomization vs. after 3 yrs in each treatment arm Treatment arm Treatment arm HR (95% CI) P-value TTP<=3yrs vs. >3 yrs Thal/Dex N/A N/A Dex 0.4 (0.05, 3.9) 0.46 VBMCP(E5A93+ E9486) 1.9 (1.4, 2.7) 0.0001 VBMCP+alpha2IFN (E5A93+ E9486) 3.0 (2.2, 4.1) <0.0001 VBMCP+CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE 2.3 (1.5, 3.6) 0.0001 Response duration <=2 yrs vs. >2 yrs Thal/Dex 0.2 (0.003, 18.5) 0.51 Dex 0.15 (0.02, 0.98) 0.048 VBMCP(E5A93+ E9486) 1.7 (1.2, 2.3) 0.0009 VBMCP+alpha2IFN (E5A93+ E9486) 3.0(2.1, 4.3) <0.0001 VBMCP+CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE 2.1 (1.4, 3.3) 0.006 Figure 1: Overall survival since relapse between patients progressed within 3 yrs since randomization vs. after 3 yrs. Figure 1:. Overall survival since relapse between patients progressed within 3 yrs since randomization vs. after 3 yrs.