Sauver, Jennifer L. St.

Background: Current cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores are derived from research cohorts and are particularly inaccurate in women, older adults, and those with missing data. To overcome these limitations, we aimed to develop a cohort to capitalize on the depth and breadth of clinical data within electronic health record (EHR) systems in order to develop next-generation sex-specific risk prediction scores for incident CVD. Methods: All individuals 30 years of age or older residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota on 1/1/2006 were identified. We developed and validated algorithms to define a variety of risk factors, thus building a comprehensive risk profile for each patient. Outcomes including myocardial infarction (MI), percutaneous intervention (PCI), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and CVD death were ascertained through 9/30/2017. Results: We identified 73,069 individuals without CVD (Table). We retrieved a total of 14,962,762 lab results; 14,534,466 diagnoses; 17,062,601 services/procedures; 1,236,998 outpatient prescriptions; 1,079,065 heart rate measurements; and 1,320,115 blood pressure measurements. The median number of blood pressure and heart rate measurements ascertained per individuals were 11 and 9, respectively. The five most prevalent conditions were: hypertension, hyperlipidemia, arthritis, depression, and cardiac arrhythmias. During follow-up 1,455 MIs, 1,581 PCI, 652 CABG, and 2,161 CVD-related deaths occurred. Conclusions: We developed a cohort with comprehensive risk profiles and follow-up for each patient. Using sophisticated machine learning approaches, this electronic cohort will be utilized to develop next-generation sex-specific CVD risk prediction scores. These approaches will allow us to address several challenges with use of EHR data including the ability to 1) deal with missing values, 2) assess and utilize a large number of variables without over-fitting, 3) allow non-linear relationships, and 4) use time-to-event data.

Introduction Population-level screening has been shown to reduce the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC). Unfortunately, adherence to screening recommendations among eligible US adults remains below national goals. A relatively new non-invasive screening modality, the Food and Drug Administration–approved multi-target stool DNA (mt-sDNA) assay (commercialised as Cologuard), which combines the detection of haemoglobin and DNA abnormalities, has been completed by more than 3 million individuals. Given mt-sDNA’s recent availability, the effectiveness of mt-sDNA screening with respect to CRC incidence and mortality reduction has not yet been established. Methods and analysis Through an academic–industry collaboration, a prospective cohort study (Voyage) was designed with an initial enrolment target of 150 000 individuals with mt-sDNA ordered by their healthcare provider for CRC screening. Consented participants will be asked to complete a baseline questionnaire to collect sociodemographic and health information. Additional questionnaires will be provided after 1 year, and every 3 years thereafter, to collect data regarding CRC screening follow-up in order to estimate rates of CRC incidence and other health outcomes. Linkage to the National Death Index will be used to estimate mortality rates. Ethics and dissemination The Voyage study will be conducted in accordance with international guidelines and local regulatory requirements and laws. Data will be stored and retained at Mayo Clinic. Only limited data elements required for research purposes will be transmitted between Mayo Clinic and Exact Sciences Laboratories. Results of the Voyage study will be disseminated through scientific presentations and publications. Trial registration number NCT04124406.

Background. Despite extensive evaluation processes to determine candidacy for kidney transplantation, variability in graft failure exists. The role of patient socioeconomic status (SES) in transplantation outcomes is poorly understood because of limitations of conventional SES measures. Methods. This population-based retrospective cohort study assessed whether a validated objective and individual-level housing-based SES index (HOUSES) would serve as a predictive tool for graft failure in patients (n = 181) who received a kidney transplant in Olmsted County, MN (January 1, 1998 to December 8, 2016). Associations were assessed between HOUSES (quartiles: Q1 [lowest] to Q4 [highest]) and graft failure until last follow-up date (December 31, 2016) using Cox proportional hazards. The mean age (SD) was 46.1 (17.2) years, 109 (60.2%) were male, 113 (62.4%) received a living kidney donor transplant, and 40 (22.1%) had a graft failure event. Results. Compared with Q1, patients with higher HOUSES (Q2–Q4) had significantly lower graft failure rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.92; P < 0.029), controlling for age, sex, race, previous kidney transplantation, and donor type. Conclusions. Although criteria for kidney transplant recipients are selective, patients with higher HOUSES had lower graft failure rates. Thus, HOUSES may enable transplantation programs to identify a target group for improving kidney transplantation outcomes.

Purpose The Mayo Clinic Biobank was established to provide a large group of patients from which comparison groups (ie, controls) could be selected for case–control studies, to create a prospective cohort with sufficient power for common outcomes and to support electronic health record (EHR) studies. Participants A total of 56 862 participants enrolled (21% response rate) into the Mayo Clinic Biobank from Rochester, Minnesota (77%, n=43 836), Jacksonville, Florida (18%, n=10 368) and La Crosse, Wisconsin (5%, n=2658). Participants were all Mayo Clinic patients, 18 years of age or older and US residents. Findings to date Overall, 43% of participants were 65 years of age or older and female participants were more frequent (59%) than males at all sites. Most participants resided in the Upper Midwest regions of the USA (Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois or Wisconsin), Florida or Georgia. Self-reported race among Biobank participants was 90% white. Here we provide examples of the types of studies that have successfully utilised the resource, including (1) investigations of the population itself, (2) provision of controls for case–control studies, (3) genotype-driven research, (4) EHR-based research and (5) prospective recruitment to other studies. Over 270 projects have been approved to date to access Biobank data and/or samples; over 200 000 sample aliquots have been approved for distribution. Future plans The data and samples in the Mayo Clinic Biobank can be used for various types of epidemiological and clinical studies, especially in the setting of case–control studies for which the Biobank samples serve as control samples. We are planning cohort studies with additional follow-up and acquisition of genetic information on a large scale.

Objective: To understand the interaction of multimorbidity and functional limitations in determining health-care utilization and survival in older adults. Methods: Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents aged 60–89 years in 2005 were categorized into four cohorts based on the presence or absence of multimorbidity (≥3 chronic conditions from a list of 18) and functional limitations (≥1 limitation in an activity of daily living from a list of 9), and were followed through December 31, 2016. Andersen–Gill and Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and death using persons with neither multimorbidity nor functional limitations as the reference (interaction analyses). Results: Among 13,145 persons, 34% had neither multimorbidity nor functional limitations, 44% had multimorbidity only, 4% had functional limitations only, and 18% had both. Over a median follow-up of 11 years, 5906 ED visits, 2654 hospitalizations, and 4559 deaths occurred. Synergistic interactions on an additive scale of multimorbidity and functional limitations were observed for all outcomes; however, the magnitude of the interactions decreased with advancing age. The HR (95% confidence interval) for death among persons with both multimorbidity and functional limitations was 5.34 (4.40–6.47) at age 60–69, 4.16 (3.59–4.83) at age 70–79, and 2.86 (2.45–3.35) at age 80–89 years. Conclusion: The risk of ED visits, hospitalizations, and death among persons with both multimorbidity and functional limitations is greater than additive. The magnitude of the interaction was strongest for the youngest age group, highlighting the importance of interventions to prevent and effectively manage multimorbidity and functional limitations early in life.

SummaryObjectiveWeight perception and degree of confidence in achieving healthy lifestyle can be determinants of engagement in obesity interventions. This study explored patients' perceived need for weight loss and the degree of self‐confidence in ability to lose weight and sought to identify factors associated with patients' self‐confidence in ability to lose weight.MethodsThe authors analysed data from a survey mailed to primary care patients within five sites of the Learning Health Systems Network that explored participants' prior experience with weight management.ResultsAmong the 2,263 participants who completed the survey section on ‘Patients’ Experience with Weight Management’, perceived need to lose 51 lb or more was statistically significant among those with class III obesity compared with other body mass index (BMI) groups (p value < 0.001). Reported desire to lose weight was also significantly higher among those with the highest BMI than those who were overweight (p value < 0.001). However, this same group had the lowest belief in ability to lose weight (p value < 0.001). In a multiple regression analysis, female gender, higher BMI and need to lose >10 lb were each independently associated with less belief in being able to lose weight.ConclusionsPatients had varying perceptions on weight loss; those with category III obesity had the highest desire to lose weight but had the least confidence in ability to lose weight. Higher BMI, female gender and need to lose >10 lb were associated with decreased self‐confidence in ability to lose weight.

Background: Previous studies have indicated that living in a rural or non-urban area may be associated with poor health outcomes. However, data on rurality and death in heart failure (HF) are scarce. Methods: Residents from 11 southeast MN counties with a first-ever code for HF (including codes ICD-9 428 and ICD-10 I50) between 1/1/2013 and 12/31/2016 were identified. Resident address was geo-coded and classified according to the Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes, which classifies US census tracts to measure population density, urbanization and daily commuting. Rurality was defined as living in a non-metropolitan area. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the association between living in a rural vs. urban area and death. Results: Among 6,996 patients (mean age 73 years, 52% male), 54% of patients lived in a rural area. These patients were older and had a lower level of educational attainment and comorbidity burden (p<0.001). After a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.9 (1.3) years, 1,856 deaths occurred. Living in a rural area was univariately associated with a higher risk of death (HR 1.20, 95% CI: 1.09-1.31; Table). After adjustment for age, sex, education status and comorbidity burden, rurality remained associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.15; 95% CI: 1.04-1.27). Conclusions: Among patients with HF, living in a rural area is associated with an increased risk of death. Further study to identify and address the mechanisms through which rural residence influences mortality in patients with HF is needed.

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to estimate the extent of potential antidepressant overprescribing in a geographically defined U.S. population, and to determine the indications and factors that account for it. We conducted a cohort study of new antidepressant prescriptions for elderly residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, 2005‐2012, using the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records‐linkage system. Indications for antidepressants were abstracted from health records for all cohort members. Potential antidepressant overprescribing was defined based on regulatory approval, the level of evidence identified from a standardized drug information database, and multidisciplinary expert review. Predictors of potential antidepressant overprescribing were investigated using logistic regression models, stratified by general antidepressant indication (general medical indication, specific psychiatric diagnosis, and non‐specific psychiatric symptoms). Potential antidepressant overprescribing occurred in 24% of 3199 incident antidepressant prescriptions during the study period, and involved primarily newer antidepressants that were prescribed for non‐specific psychiatric symptoms and subthreshold diagnoses. Potential antidepressant overprescribing was associated with nursing home residence, having a higher number of comorbid medical conditions and outpatient prescribers, taking more concomitant medications, having greater use of urgent or acute care services in the year preceding the index antidepressant prescription, and being prescribed antidepressants via telephone, e‐mail, or patient portal. In conclusion, potential antidepressant overprescribing occurred in elderly persons and involved mainly newer antidepressants used for non‐specific psychiatric symptoms and subthreshold diagnoses, and was associated with indicators of higher clinical complexity or severity and with prescribing without face‐to‐face patient contact.