Sproat, Lisa

ABSTRACT Venetoclax (Ven) plus hypomethylating agents (HMA) is standard frontline therapy for newly diagnosed AML (ND‐AML) patients unfit for intensive chemotherapy and is also considered in younger, fit patients. However, consolidation with allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) is often required to secure durable remission. The current study examines posttransplant outcomes in patients with ND‐AML treated with frontline Ven‐HMA who subsequently underwent ASCT. A total of 111 ND‐AML patients (58% male, 60% secondary/therapy‐related, median age 70 years [range, 37–80]) received a median of 3 cycles of Ven‐HMA. Mutations at the time of diagnosis included RUNX1 (18%), SRSF2 (17%), TP53 (16%), ASXL1 , IDH2 , K/NRAS , TET2 (14% each), STAG2 (11%), DNMT3A (8%). All patients were in CR/CRi at the time of transplant including 88% after Ven‐HMA. Measurable residual disease (MRD) by flow cytometry was detectable in 18/76 (24%) patients. Donors were mostly HLA‐matched unrelated (75%); 51% receiving fludarabine/melphalan conditioning and 67% posttransplant cyclophosphamide. At a median follow‐up of 15 months, 42 (38%) of patients have died and 18 (16%) experienced posttransplant relapse. Median posttransplant survival was not reached (NR), with 1‐, 2‐, 3‐year survival rates of 69%/60%/57%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, age ≥ 65 years, STAG2 mutation ( STAG2 MUT ) , and DNMT3A MUT were associated with superior posttransplant survival. Patients were stratified into low‐ (0–1 point), intermediate‐ (2 points), and high‐risk (3 points); age < 65 years, STAG2 wild type, and DNMT3A wild type, with 3‐year survival rates of 89%, 59%, and 19%, respectively ( p < 0.01). Taken together, age, STAG2 MUT and DNMT3A MUT stratified posttransplant survival in Ven‐HMA treated patients with ND‐AML.

ABSTRACT The recently published BLAST clinical risk model for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) and its molecular version (BLAST‐Mol) differentiate low, intermediate, and high‐risk groups. The objective of the current retrospective study was to examine the survival impact of allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) in a consecutive series of Mayo Clinic patients ( n = 775; 68% males, median age 71 years) with CMML, overall and adjusted for baseline BLAST/BLAST‐Mol risk categories. At a median follow‐up of 77 months, 151 (20%) patients underwent ASCT. Overall survival (OS) was longer in the ASCT compared to the non‐ASCT cohorts (median 77 vs. 28 months; p < 0.01). The significant difference in OS between the ASCT and non‐ASCT cohorts was retained after adjusting for BLAST clinical risk groups: high‐risk (median 50 vs. 14 months; p < 0.01), intermediate‐risk (81 vs. 28 months; p < 0.01), and low‐risk (111 vs. 65 months; p = 0.04), respectively. The same was mostly the case when OS comparison was adjusted for BLAST‐Mol with respective p values of < 0.01, < 0.01, and 0.08, respectively. Time‐dependent cox models confirmed the favorable survival impact of ASCT in the BLAST/BLAST‐Mol high‐ and intermediate‐risk groups. The current study highlights the benefit of ASCT for BLAST/BLAST‐Mol high‐ and intermediate‐risk groups in CMML and its potential to overcome the adverse impact of some high risk cytogenetic or molecular abnormalities. These observations support the early use of ASCT in CMML, ideally before BT and regardless of genetic characteristics.

6530 Background: Venetoclax (Ven) plus hypomethylating agents (HMA) is standard frontline therapy for newly diagnosed AML (ND-AML) patients unfit for intensive chemotherapy and is also being considered in younger and fit patients (Fathi, Blood 2025). However, consolidation with allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) is often required to secure durable remission. The current study examines predictors of post-transplant survival (PTS) in the particular scenario. Methods: ND-AML patients who received upfront Ven+HMA and underwent ASCT were retrospectively studied. PTS, relapse rate, and non-relapse mortality (NRM) were evaluated. Results: 111 ND-AML patients (58% male, 60% secondary/therapy-related, median age 70 [37-80 years]) received median 3 cycles of Ven-HMA. 22% had complex karyotype. Mutations at diagnosis included RUNX1 (18%), SRSF2 (17%), TP53 (16%), ASXL1 , IDH2 , K/NRAS and TET2 (14% each), STAG2 (11%), DNMT3A (8%) and at time of ASCT (N=78 evaluable); RUNX1 (8%), NPM1 (6%), TP53 and ASXL1 (5% each), and SRSF2 and TET2 (4% each). At ASCT, all patients were in CR/CRi; 88% after Ven-HMA and 12% after additional bridging therapy. MRD by flow cytometry was detected in 18 (24%) of 76 evaluable patients and complex karyotype in 8 (9%) of 94. Donors were mostly HLA-matched unrelated (75%), with 51% receiving fludarabine/melphalan conditioning and 67% post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy). At a median follow-up of 30 months, 42 patients (38%) have died including 18 (40%) from relapse. Median PTS was not reached (NR) with 1-2-3-year survival of 69%/60%57%. On multivariate analysis, age ≥65 years (median NR vs 10 months p<0.01), STAG2 (NR vs 44 months; p=0.04), and DNMT3A mutations (NR vs.NR p=0.05) were associated with superior PTS. In analysis limited to variables at time of ASCT, age ≥65 years remained significant (p<0.01) while TP53 mutations, donor type, and MRD status were not (p>0.1). Patients <65 years more often received bridging therapy compared to ≥65 years (23% vs 7%; p<0.05); excluding salvage-treated patients did not change survival results. 18 patients (16%) experienced post-ASCT relapse with median RFS of 7 months. Relapse rates at 1/2/3 years were 22%, 30% and 31% and NRM 13%, 24%, 46%, respectively. Patients <65 years had a higher 1 yr relapse incidence than those ≥65 years (36% vs 18%; p=0.01), with similar NRM (p=0.58). PTCy was not associated with relapse (p=0.66) but showed a borderline association with higher NRM (1-/2-/3-year 17%/31%/58% vs 4%/7%/16% in non-PTCy recipients; p=0.06). GVHD rate was 44% (50% ≥grade 2) with no association with relapse (p=0.43) or NRM (p=0.99). Conclusions: In the current study, older age (>65 years), including >75 years, was independently associated with superior PTS in ND-AML patients receiving Ven-HMA. By contrast, PTS was not affected by genetic profile at the time of ASCT, donor type, conditioning regimen, or GVHD prophylaxis.

Abstract The comparative value of liposomal cytarabine/daunorubicin (CPX-351) versus venetoclax plus a hypomethylating agent (Ven-HMA) in the frontline treatment of older adults with primary ( de novo ) or secondary acute myeloid leukemia (AML) remains uncertain. In the current study, we retrospectively examined outcomes of 600 patients with newly diagnosed AML treated with CPX-351 (N = 112) or Ven-HMA (N = 488). AML subtypes included de novo (46%), post-myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) (19%), post-myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) (12%), post-MDS/MPN (6%), therapy-related (17%) and AML with myelodysplasia-related genetic abnormalities (AML-MR; 46%). Patients receiving CPX-351 were younger (median 65 vs. 73 years; p < 0.01), predominantly female (50% vs. 38%; p = 0.02), more likely to have secondary AML (68% vs. 51%; p < 0.01), and less likely to harbor NPM1 MUT (5% vs. 12%; p = 0.02). Rates of complete response with or without count recovery (CR/CRi) were comparable between CPX-351 and Ven-HMA (55% vs. 60%; p = 0.30), including in AML-MR (60% vs. 63%; p = 0.70). Ven-HMA use was associated with fewer infectious complications (62% vs. 83%; p < 0.01) and yielded higher CR/CRi rates in males (60% vs. 45%; p = 0.04), de novo AML (68% vs. 50%; p = 0.03), and in the presence of STAG2 MUT (86% vs. 44%; p = 0.02), or CEBPA MUT (88% vs. 50%; p = 0.03). Overall survival censored for transplant, was similar (median 10 vs. 13 months; p = 0.90), with Ven-HMA being superior in post-MDS AML (median 12 vs. 7 months; p = 0.02) and CPX-351 in the presence of SF3B1 MUT (not reached vs. 14 months; p < 0.01). Our findings suggest that Ven-HMA is as effective and less toxic than CPX-351 in newly diagnosed AML, including AML-MR, despite selection of younger, fitter patients for CPX-351.

Abstract Venetoclax (Ven) in combination with hypomethylating agents (HMA) is widely used as frontline treatment in older or unfit patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Liposomal cytarabine and daunorubicin (CPX-351) is FDA-approved for the treatment of secondary AML, including therapy-related (t-AML) and AML with myelodysplasia-related changes (AML-MR). The current study aimed to provide a comprehensive comparison between the two treatment strategies to better inform clinical decisions. Methods The current retrospective analysis was performed under an institutional review board approved minimal risk protocol at Mayo Clinic (MN, AZ, FL). AML-MR gene mutations or cytogenetic abnormalities were categorized according to the International Consensus Classification (Arber et al. Blood 2022;140:1200). Treatment response was assessed according to the 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) criteria (Dohner et al. Blood 2022;140:1345). Overall survival (OS) analysis was censored for allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT). Statistical analyses were performed using JMP Pro (Version 18.0.0). Results A total of 600 patients with newly diagnosed AML (ND-AML) treated with CPX-351 (N-112, 19%), or Ven-HMA (N=488, 81%) were included. AML subtypes included de novo (N=277, 46%), post-myelodysplastic syndrome (post-MDS, N=114,19%), post-myeloproliferative neoplasm (post-MPN, N=70, 12%), post-MDS/MPN (N=36, 6%), t-AML (N=103, 17%) and AML-MR (N=274, 46%). Compared with those treated with Ven-HMA, patients receiving CPX-351 were younger (median age 65 vs 73 years; p&lt;0.01), more likely to be female (50% vs 38%; p=0.02), more frequently diagnosed withsecondaryAML (68% vs 51%; p&lt;0.01), and less likely to have NPM1MUT (5% vs 12%; p=0.02) whereas ELN 2022 cytogenetic risk distribution was similar between the two (adverse risk; 43% vs 40%; p=0.5). Comparison of treatment response and survival Complete response rates with (CR) or without (CRi) count recovery were similar between CPX-351 and Ven-HMA overall (55% vs 60%) as well as specifically in patients with AML-MR (60% vs 63%), adverse karyotype (44% vs 44%), NPM1MUT (100% vs 89%), TP53MUT(32% vs 45%), IDH1MUT (60% vs 76%), IDH2MUT (63% vs 77%), SF3B1MUT(71% vs 45%), and CBLMUT (33% vs 69%) [p&gt;0.05 in all instances]. Compared to those with CPX-351, CR/CRi rates with Ven-HMA were superior in males (60% vs. 45%; p=0.04) and in patients with de novo AML (68% vs. 50%; p=0.03), STAG2MUT (86% vs. 44%; p=0.02), or CEBPAMUT (88% vs. 50%; p=0.03); infectious complications were significantly more frequent with CPX-351 (83% vs 62%, p&lt;0.01). At a median follow-up of 12 months (range; 1-88), 416 (69%) deaths, 179 relapses (44% in CPX-351 and 52% in Ven-HMA responders) and 149 ASCTs (53% in CPX-351 and 18% in Ven-HMA) were documented. OS rates were similar between CPX-351 and Ven-HMA, in general (median 10 vs 13 months), as well as in patients with adverse karyotype, TP53MUT, IDH1MUT, and IDH2MUT (p&gt;0.05 in all instances). By contrast, OS was superior in Ven-HMA-treated patients with post-MDS AML (median 12 vs. 7 months; age-adjusted p=0.02) and in CPX-351-treated patients harboring SF3B1MUT(median not reached vs 14 months; age-adjusted p&lt;0.01). In addition, a borderline-significant OS advantage for CPX-351 was apparent in patients with PTPN11MUT (13.5 vs 8 months; p=0.08). Comparison in ICC defined AML-myelodysplasia-related CR/CRi and OS rates were comparable between patients treated with CPX-351 (N=57) or Ven-HMA (N=217), with response rates of 60% vs 63% (p=0.68) and median OS of 10 vs 14 months (p=0.61), respectively. However, OS was superior with Ven-HMA in patients with post-MDS AML (15 vs 8 months; age-adjusted p=0.02) and with CPX-351 in those with SF3B1MUT (NR vs 14 months; age-adjusted p=0.02). Conclusions: The current study suggests that Ven-HMA was as effective and possibly less toxic than CPX-351 for the treatment of ND-AML, including AML-MR, despite the bias for younger and fitter patients treated with the latter regimen. Observed differences involving patients with SF3B1MUT or post-MDS AML require validation in prospective studies and provide parameters for developing treatment-specific predictive models that will be presented at the meeting.

Abstract Background: KMT2A-rearranged acute myeloid leukemia (KMT2Ar AML) is characterized by chromosomal translocation involving KMT2A gene at 11q23, resulting in fusion with variety of partner genes. It is usually associated with poor outcomes, high risk of relapses and suboptimal responses to conventional therapies. While NPM1-mutated (mt) AML is considered favorable risk, they are equally dismal in relapse refractory (RR) setting. Menin inhibitors have emerged as a promising therapeutic strategy, particularly in RR AML patients (pts) with KMT2Ar and NPM1-mt genotypes. While revumenib, a menin inhibitor approved for managing RR KMT2Ar acute leukemia, no menin inhibitor is currently approved for NPM1-mt AML. In this study, we evaluated clinical outcomes of adults with KMT2Ar AML and performed a comparative analysis of pts with RR KMT2Ar and NPM1-mt AML using data from the Mayo Clinic. Methods: After screening 102 AML pts with reported KMT2A abnormalities, we identified 33 adults with confirmed KMT2Ar diagnosed between 2012 and 2024 for retrospective analysis. Clinical and molecular/cytogenetics data, induction type (intensive chemotherapy [IC] vs non-intensive chemotherapy [NIC]), response, transplant use, and survival outcomes were reviewed. A separate analysis was performed comparing 20 RR KMT2Ar AML pts with 20 propensity score matched RR NPM1-mt AML pts from a pool of 125 NPM1-mt RR pts. Results: The median age was 50 years (yrs) (range [R], 19.0-75.0), and 60.6% were &lt; 60 yrs. Most cases were de novo AML (64%), and the most frequent translocation was t(6;11)(q27;q23)/MLLT4 (27%), followed by t(10;11)(p12;q23)/MLLT10 (21%), t(9;11)(p21.3;q23.3)/MLLT3 (15%), and t(11;19)(q23;p13.1)/ELL (12%). Other KMT2A fusion partners were rare and collectively accounted for the remaining cases. The median follow-up was 57 months (mo) (R, 7.0-109.0). The overall response rate (ORR) was 91%, and composite complete remission (CRc, , including CR, CRi, and CRh) was 73%. The CRc rates were comparable between IC and NIC (80% vs 62%, p=0.24). CRc were not significantly different by disease type (de novo [71.4%] vs secondary [sAML] [75%], p= 0.82) or KMT2A fusion partner gene (60% for t[9;11]/MLLT3 vs. 57.1% for t[10;11]/MLLT10 vs 55.6% for t[6;11]/MLLT4, p=0.069). Seventeen (52%) pts received an allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT). The median overall survival (mOS ) for the entire cohort was 16 mo (R, 11.0-34.0). In subset analysis, IC compared to NIC was associated with significantly longer mOS (30 vs 11 mo, p=0.014). The mOS was also superior in pts &lt;60 vs ≥60 yrs (32 vs 8 mo, p=0.005). Similarly, de novo cases had better mOS than sAML (22.0 vs 9.5 mo, p=0.052). Among KMT2Ar subtypes, t(6;11)/MLLT4 showed the longest mOS (54 mo [R, 30.0-not reached (NR)]), while t(9;11)/MLLT3 had the shortest (11.0 mo, [R 9-NR]), but differences were not statistically significant (p=0.32). The mOS was significantly longer among allo-HCT pts (30 vs 11 mo, p=0.005). Among 29 pts who experienced RR disease, the median relapse free survival (RFS) was 3 mo (R, 2.0-10.0). First salvage therapy yielded a CRc of 43.8% in 16 evaluable pts. When compared to a propensity matched cohort of 20 RR NPM1-mt AML pts, the CRc rates was 57.9% vs 50% in RR NPM1-mt and KMT2Ar AML (p= 0.68). The mRFS was not significantly different between RR KMT2Ar and NPM1-mt AML, (3 vs 4 mo, p=0.9). However, KMT2Ar pts had inferior mOS compared to NPM-mt AML (12 vs 65 mo, p=0.004). We further compared survival between NPM1-mt and KMT2Ar pts stratified by allo-HCT status. Among those who underwent allo-HCT, NPM1-mt pts had longer mOS (NR vs 22 mo, p=0.037). Among non-allo-HCT pts, mOS was numerically higher in NPM1-mt vs KMT2Ar (19 vs 8 mo, p=0.11). Conclusions: This single institusion cohort of adult AML with KMT2Ar underscores the biological and clinical heterogeneity of this high-risk group. IC was associated with a survival benefit, particularly among younger and fit patients. However, the outcomes following relapse remained poor, highlighting the urgent need for improved post-remission and salvage therapies. Comparative analysis with matched RR NPM1-mt AML pts revealed similarly dismal survival outcomes. Emerging data from single-arm studies of menin inhibitors in both frontline and RR settings among pts with NPM1-mt and KMT2Ar AML are encouraging and may represent a paradigm shift in treatment.

Abstract Background In patients with myelofibrosis (MF) undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT), graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis has traditionally included a calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) plus methotrexate (MTX). We conducted a retrospective study comparing the safety and efficacy of post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy)-based GVHD prophylaxis to CNI-based regimens. Methods This study was approved by the Mayo Clinic IRB. Patients with myelofibrosis who underwent allo-HCT after 2016 at Mayo Clinic in Arizona and Florida were included. Categorical variables were compared using Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. Overall survival (OS) was defined from transplant to death, and progression-free survival (PFS) from transplant to relapse or death. OS and PFS were estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods; univariate differences were assessed with log-rank tests. The cumulative incidence of acute and chronic GVHD and time to neutrophil and platelet engraftment were analyzed using competing risk models, with death as a competing event; differences were tested using Gray's test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). Results A total of 110 patients were included. 53 patients received PTCy-based prophylaxis (43 PTCy/Tac/MMF, 1 PTCy/CSA/MMF, 9 PTCy/Siro/MMF), while 57 received non-PTCy regimens (54 Tac/MTX +/- 39 T-cell depletion, 2 CSA/MMF, 1 Tac/MMF). Median age at transplant was 63 (range: PTCy 40-76; others 38-74) years in both groups; 59 were male (58.5% PTCy vs 49.1% others). Median Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) and HCT–Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) in patients receiving PTCy vs non-PTCy were 90 vs 80 and 1 vs 3, respectively. Conditioning intensity was similar: 22.6% myeloablative vs 21.7%, and 77.4% reduced-intensity vs 76.7% in PTCy and non-PTCy, respectively (p=1.000). Stem cell source was peripheral blood in all patients except one in the non-PTCy group who received bone marrow. 58 patients had primary MF (54.7% PTCy vs 50.9% others), and 52 had secondary MF (45.3% PTCy vs 49.1% others), including essential thrombocythemia (28.3% PTCy vs 31.6% others), polycythemia vera (17.0% vs 15.8%), and MPN-NOS (0% vs 1.8%). Median follow-up was 26.2 months (95% CI: 20.7-52.7) in the PTCy and 60.6 months (95% CI: 53.1-70.6) in the non-PTCy cohort. CD3 and CD33 donor chimerism ≥95% at day +100 was 66.7% and 86.7% in PTCy vs 63.6% and 92.7% in others, respectively (p=0.50); day +100 driver molecular mutations were present in 32.1% of PTCy and 32.0% of others (p&gt;0.99). Rates of acute GVHD grades ≥2 and ≥3 were not statistically significant, in the PTCy group (37.7% vs 49.1% p=0.229 and 17.0% vs 22.8% p=0.445, respectively). Chronic GVHD (any grade) occurred in 42.3% of PTCy vs 38.2% of others (p=0.664), while moderate-to-severe cGVHD was lower with PTCy (21.2% vs 27.3% p=0.461). Platelet engraftment was significantly delayed in the PTCy group (median 33 vs 21 days, p=0.030). Median time to neutrophil engraftment was also delayed in the PTCy group (20 vs 17 days, adjusted p=0.025). Age-adjusted HR for time to platelet engraftment was 0.60 (95% CI: 0.41–0.90; p=0.014), and for neutrophil engraftment 0.65 (95% CI: 0.44–0.95; p=0.025), indicating significantly delayed hematopoietic recovery with PTCy. Graft failure occurred in 9.4% vs 5.3% (p = 0.48); primary 7.5% vs 3.5%, secondary 1.9% vs 1.8% in PTCy vs non-PTCy groups, respectively. Relapse or progression occurred in 11.3% of PTCy vs 17.5% of others (p=0.355); four patients in the non-PTCy group progressed to AML post-transplant, versus none in the PTCy group (p=0.119). 1-year TRM was 22.6% in the PTCy group and 14.0% in the non-PTCy group, p = 0.324. Median OS was 72.8 months in the PTCy group (95% CI: 49.9 months, upper limit not estimable [NE]) and 93.4 months in the non-PTCy group (95% CI: 48.5 months, upper limit NE), although the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.739). After adjusting for age and HCT-CI, there were no significant differences in PFS (adjusted HR 1.37; 95% CI: 0.73–2.56; p=0.331) or OS (adjusted HR 1.27; 95% CI: 0.64–2.51; p=0.498). Conclusions In myelofibrosis patients undergoing allo-HCT, PTCy-based GVHD prophylaxis showed similar rates of grade ≥2 acute and moderate-severe chronic GVHD compared to non-PTCy regimens. Engraftment was significantly delayed, while OS and PFS were comparable. PTCy appears to be a safe and viable alternative to CNI-based prophylaxis.

Abstract Allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) remains the only curative option in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). We retrospectively analyzed 138 CMML patients who underwent ASCT at the Mayo Clinic. Patients who transitioned to ASCT while in chronic phase (Group A) displayed superior post-transplant survival (PTS), compared to those in whom ASCT was performed after blast transformation (BT; Group B) (median 95 vs. 16 months; p=0.01). In Group A, PTS was superior in patients with <5% bone marrow (BM) blasts at time of ASCT (median 164 vs. 13.5 months; p=0.01). Other predictors of superior PTS included day-100 BM blast <5% or normal cytogenetics (median 164 vs 18 months; p=0.01) or presence of chronic graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD; median 164 vs. 26 months; p=0.01). Pre-ASCT hypomethylating agent exposure (HR=2.03; p=0.03), and receiving more than one line of pre-ASCT chemotherapy (p=0.01) predicted inferior PTS. In multivariable analysis, predictors of superior GVHD-free and relapse-free survival (GRFS) included the use myeloablative conditioning and the absence of morphologically or cytogenetically apparent disease at day-100. The use of post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy) was associated with higher cumulative incidence of relapse (p=0.02) and numerically inferior PTS (p=0.1). Group B patients also appeared to benefit from achieving BM blast <5% at time of ASCT (p=0.4) as well as at day-100 (p=0.01), in terms of PTS, while full chimerism and normal cytogenetics at day-100 were associated with superior GRFS. These observations support the value of ASCT in CMML, especially if performed prior to BT and in the presence of <5% BM blasts at time of ASCT. Additionally, the observed detrimental impact of PTCy requires additional studies to confirm and investigate the underlying mechanisms.

ABSTRACT Patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND‐AML) derive variable survival benefit from venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven‐HMA) therapy. The primary objective in the current study was to develop genetic risk models that are predictive of survival and are applicable at the time of diagnosis and after establishing treatment response. Among 400 ND‐AML patients treated with Ven‐HMA at the Mayo Clinic, 247 (62%) achieved complete remission with (CR) or without (CRi) count recovery. Multivariable analysis–derived hazard ratios (HR), including 1.8 for European LeukemiaNet (ELN) adverse karyotype, 4.7 for KMT2Ar , 1.7 for TP53 MUT , 2.6 for KRAS MUT , and 2.1 for IDH2 WT were applied to develop an HR‐weighted risk model: low, intermediate, and high; respective median survival censored for allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) (3‐year survival) were “not reached” (67%), 19.1 (33%), and 7.1 months (0%). In patients achieving CR/CRi, adverse karyotype, KMT2Ar , KRAS MUT , IDH2 WT predicted inferior survival, allowing for a complementary response‐stratified risk model. The model was externally validated and was shown to be superior to the ELN 2024 risk model (AIC 179 vs. 195 and AUC 0.77 vs. 0.69). Survival was inferior with failure to achieve CR/CRi or not receiving ASCT; 3‐year survival for high‐risk with or without ASCT was 42% versus 0% ( p < 0.01); intermediate 72% versus 43% ( p = 0.06); and low‐risk 88% versus 78% ( p = 0.53). The Mayo genetic risk models offer pre‐treatment and response‐based prognostic tools for ND‐AML treated with Ven‐HMA. The current study underscores the prognostically indispensable role of achieving CR/CRi and ASCT.

Background Venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven-HMA) therapy results in favorable response rates (CR/CRi 66%) and overall survival (OS; median 14.7 months) in unfit patients with newly-diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND-AML; N Engl J Med 2020;383). However, there is substantial heterogeneity in individual patient outcomes based on response to treatment. The objective of the current study was to develop a genetic risk model to predict survival outcome in treatment responders and non-responders, analyzed separately, and also account for allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT). Methods Treatment-naïve AML patients receiving Ven-HMA, outside of a clinical trial, at the Mayo Clinic, USA (MN, AZ, FL) were retrospectively recruited. Molecular studies (48-gene panel) were performed by next-generation sequencing. Response was assessed according to the 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) criteria (Blood 2022;140). Standard statistical analyses were performed using JMP Pro (Version 17.0.0). Results 400 ND-AML patients (median age 73 years, 64% male, 60% de novo) received Ven-HMA. ELN cytogenetic risk included favorable 2%, intermediate 60%, or adverse 38%. Mutations involved TP53 in 26%, TET2 19%, RUNX1 19%, SRSF2 18%, ASXL1 18%, DNMT3A 15%, K/NRAS 13%, NPM1 12%, IDH2 12%, FLT3-ITD 10%, IDH1 7% and DDX41 in 4% of informative cases. 153 (38%) patients achieved CR, 94 (24%) CR with incomplete count recovery (CRi), resulting in CR/CRi in 247 (62%) patients. CR/CRi rates were higher with NPM1 (86% vs 59%), IDH2 (77% vs 60%), and DDX41 mutations (93% vs 61%) and lower with TP53 (45% vs 67%), FLT3-ITD (41% vs 64%), RUNX1 (49% vs 65%) mutations and adverse karyotype (48% vs 71%), with all retaining significance in multivariable analysis. CR/CRi rate was highest (87%) in 75 patients with one or more favorable mutations (NPM1, IDH2, DDX41) and no unfavorable mutation (TP53, FLT3-ITD, RUNX1). CR/CRi rate was lowest in 171 patients with at least one unfavorable mutation and no favorable mutation (44%; p&lt;0.01). After a median follow up of 10.5 months (0.5-66), 105 relapses (43% of patients in CR/CRi), 248 (62%) deaths and 65 (16%) ASCT were documented. Univariate analysis for transplant-censored OS disclosed superior survival in patients achieving CR/CRi (median 21 vs 3.6 months; HR 5.4, 95% CI 4.1-7.1). Among patients achieving CR/CRi, IDH2 mutation was associated with superior (median not reached vs 20.5 months) and male gender (median 17.6 vs 29.2 months), TP53 mutations (median 11.9 vs 24.3 months) and adverse karyotype (median 12.6 vs 29.4 months) with inferior survival; multivariable analysis resulted in HRs (95% CI) of 2.1 (1.3-3.4) for male gender, 2.1 (1.2-3.8) for adverse karyotype, and 2.5 (1.1-5.7) for absence of IDH2 mutations. Male gender did not show an association with karyotype, or TP53 mutations (p&gt;0.1). Accordingly, an HR-weighted genetic risk model was generated with assignment of one point each to male gender, adverse karyotype, and absence of IDH2 mutation: high risk = 3 risk factors (n=38; median 9.6 months; 3-year survival 0%); intermediate risk = 2 risk factors (n=129; median 22 months; 3-year survival 38%); and low-risk = ≤1 risk factor (n=78; median not reached; 3-year survival 69%; p&lt;0.01). In patients bridged to ASCT (n=60), post-transplant survival was inferior in the presence of ≥ 2 risk factors (n=42; median 46 months) vs. ≤1 risk factor (n=18; median not reached; p=0.1). In patients not achieving CR/CRi, risk factors for OS included male gender (median 3.4 vs 6.1 months), adverse karyotype (median 3.3 vs 4.5 months) and TP53 mutation (median 3.1 vs 4.5 months) while those with IDH2 mutations lived longer (median 8.4 vs 3.4 months). In multivariable analysis, HRs (95% CI) were 1.9 (1.3-2.9) for male gender, 2.0 (1.4-2.9) for adverse karyotype, and 2.1 (1.1-4.3) for absence of IDH2 mutations. OS was shortest for non-responders harboring 3 risk factors (n=45; median 3 months; 1-year survival 0%) and longer for those harboring two (n=80; median 6 months, 1-year OS 15%) or ≤ 1 risk factor (n=25; median 14 months; 1-year OS 56%; p&lt;0.01). Conclusion The current study describes a molecular profile for predicting response to Ven-HMA in ND-AML and also introduces a novel approach to survival prediction that considers treatment response as the starting point. In both responders and non-responders, male gender and adverse karyotype were identified as unfavorable and IDH2 mutation favorable risk factor for OS.