Salman, Rustam Al‐Shahi

Importance Annual rates of first intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) from unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) are often quoted as 2% to 4% in clinical practice. Precise estimates and risk factors are unavailable to inform treatment decisions. Objective To provide estimates of rates and risk factors for first ICH in a large cohort study of unruptured brain AVMs. Design, Setting, and Participants The Multicenter Arteriovenous Malformation Research Study (MARS) included data from 9 cohorts, each contributing 100 or more unruptured brain AVMs. The study was conducted from 2017 to 2023 with retrospective and prospective data collection for existing cohorts and/or new recruitment. This was an international study (2 population-based and 7 referral-based cohorts) that included participants diagnosed with an unruptured brain AVM. Exposures Demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics. Main Outcome and Measure The primary outcome was time to first ICH after diagnosis of unruptured brain AVM. Data were collected using standardized definitions; missing data were imputed. Cox regression analysis was performed, censoring at first brain AVM treatment, death, or last visit, and allowing baseline hazards to vary by cohort. Results A total of 3225 individuals were eligible for participation in this study. After 195 exclusions, 3030 participants (median [IQR] age, 38 [25-50] years; 1524 female [50.3%]) were included. Among 2989 participants with unruptured brain AVMs, 1333 (45%) presented with seizure. The median (IQR) maximal brain AVM diameter was 3.1 (2.2-4.4) cm, 248 of 2466 AVMs (10%) had exclusively deep venous drainage, 297 of 2690 (11%) were in supratentorial deep or cerebellar locations, and 457 of 2440 (19%) had associated arterial aneurysms. First ICH occurred in 159 participants over 11 339 person-years of follow-up for an ICH rate of 1.40 (95% CI, 1.20-1.64) per 100 person-years. Significant independent risk factors included (1) increasing age category at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.53-1.41 for those aged 20 to 39 years; HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.74-2.04 for those aged 40 to 59 years; and HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.14-3.57 for those aged 60 years vs younger than 20 years; P = .008), (2) presence of associated aneurysms (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06-2.59; P = .03), and (3) cerebellar or supratentorial deep location (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.16-3.00; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance The annual ICH rate from unruptured brain AVM was lower than that commonly cited in clinical practice. Increasing age, associated arterial aneurysms, and cerebellar or supratentorial deep brain AVM location were associated with risk of first ICH. These results may be used to counsel patients about the natural history of unruptured brain AVMs.

Importance Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) represents the third most common stroke type with unique etiologies, risk factors, diagnostics, and treatments. Nevertheless, epidemiological studies often cluster SAH with other stroke types leaving its distinct burden estimates obscure. Objective To estimate the worldwide burden of SAH. Design, Setting, and Participants Based on the repeated cross-sectional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the global burden of SAH in 1990 to 2021 was estimated. Moreover, the SAH burden was compared with other diseases, and its associations with 14 individual risk factors were investigated with available data in the GBD 2021 study. The GBD study included the burden estimates of nontraumatic SAH among all ages in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2021. Exposures SAH and 14 modifiable risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of SAH incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as well as risk factor–specific population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results In 2021, the global age-standardized SAH incidence was 8.3 (95% UI, 7.3-9.5), prevalence was 92.2 (95% UI, 84.1-100.6), mortality was 4.2 (95% UI, 3.7-4.8), and DALY rate was 125.2 (95% UI, 110.5-142.6) per 100 000 people. The highest burden estimates were found in Latin America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and high-income Asia Pacific. Although the absolute number of SAH cases increased, especially in regions with a low sociodemographic index, all age-standardized burden rates decreased between 1990 and 2021: the incidence by 28.8% (95% UI, 25.7%-31.6%), prevalence by 16.1% (95% UI, 14.8%-17.7%), mortality by 56.1% (95% UI, 40.7%-64.3%), and DALY rate by 54.6% (95% UI, 42.8%-61.9%). Of 300 diseases, SAH ranked as the 36th most common cause of death and 59th most common cause of DALY in the world. Of all worldwide SAH-related DALYs, 71.6% (95% UI, 63.8%-78.6%) were associated with the 14 modeled risk factors of which high systolic blood pressure (population attributable fraction [PAF] = 51.6%; 95% UI, 38.0%-62.6%) and smoking (PAF = 14.4%; 95% UI, 12.4%-16.5%) had the highest attribution. Conclusions and Relevance Although the global age-standardized burden rates of SAH more than halved over the last 3 decades, SAH remained one of the most common cardiovascular and neurological causes of death and disabilities in the world, with increasing absolute case numbers. These findings suggest evidence for the potential health benefits of proactive public health planning and resource allocation toward the prevention of SAH.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Despite many publications about cavernous malformations (CMs), controversy remains regarding diagnostic and management strategies. To update evidence-based guidelines for the clinical management of brain and spinal cord CMs. METHODS: The Alliance to Cure CMs, the patient support group in the United States advocating on behalf of patients and research in CM, convened a multidisciplinary writing group comprising expert CM clinicians to help summarize the existing literature related to the clinical care of CM, focusing on 5 topics: (1) epidemiology and natural history, (2) genetic testing and counseling, (3) diagnostic criteria and imaging standards, (4) neurosurgical considerations, and (5) neurological considerations. Building on prior evidence-based recommendations reflecting literature review through October 2014, the group conducted a systematic review of the more recent literature, identified references for mandatory citation, rated evidence, developed recommendations, and established consensus according to a prespecified protocol. Finally, the writing group outlined remaining knowledge gaps and controversies to guide future research. RESULTS: From 2672 publications published between October 1, 2014, and March 15, 2023, and meeting key word criteria, 234 were selected based on prearticulated criteria for mandatory consideration in evidence-based recommendations. Topic authors used these and other supporting references to summarize current knowledge and arrive at 53 management recommendations, with unanimous consensus based on a Delphi process. These were rated by class (strength of recommendation) and level (quality of evidence) per the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association criteria. Eighteen recommendations were class 1 (34%), class 2 in 31 (58%), and class 3 in 4 (8%). Three were level A (6%), 19 (36%) were level B, and 31 (58%) were level C. CONCLUSION: Current evidence supports prior and new recommendations for the management of CMs, but many reflect moderate classes and low levels, mandating further research to better inform clinical practice.

Introduction: The long-term effects of interventional treatment (with surgery, stereotactic radiosurgery, or endovascular embolization) for unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (uBAVM) are uncertain. We address this in a large multi-center international cohort study comparing risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in the treated and untreated course of uBAVM patients. Methods: We pooled individual patient data (n=3,291) from 10 cohorts and imputed missing data. Survival analysis was performed from time of uBAVM diagnosis to intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) using Cox models, stratified by cohort, censoring at death or last follow-up, and including BAVM interventional treatment as a time-varying covariate. We tested for an interaction of treatment with follow-up time, then estimated the association of interventional treatment with ICH, adjusting for propensity quintile. Individual treatment propensity scores were calculated using logistic regression with Spetzler-Martin grade, sex, diagnosis age and year, cohort, and presence of presenting symptoms (seizures, headaches, and/or deficits). Results: Median cohort age was 36 years, 48% were female, and 77% received ≥1 treatment modality for uBAVM during follow-up. 373 ICH occurred during 32,054 person-years of follow-up (median=6.6y), for an ICH rate of 1.16 per 100 P-Y. Overall, treatment was not associated with risk of ICH (HR=1.12, 95% CI=0.89-1.51, p=0.33). However, we observed a strong interaction between treatment and follow-up time (p<0.001): between 0-1 year, treatment was associated with higher risk of ICH (HR=3.48, 95% CI: 2.26-5.37, p<0.001); between 1-10 years, we found no association between treatment and risk of ICH (HR=1.02, 95% CI: 0.73-1.45, p=0.87); after 10 years, treatment was associated with a lower risk of ICH (HR=0.46, 95% CI: 0.30-0.70, p<0.001). Survival curves for untreated and treated courses crossed around 17 years. Conclusion: After accounting for treatment propensity for uBAVM, we found an initial increased risk of ICH in the treated relative to untreated course, which continually declined over time with survival curves crossing around 17 years. These results require confirmation in a randomized controlled trial of uBAVM with long-term follow-up.

INTRODUCTION: Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCM) are the second commonest incidental finding on brain MRI and may cause symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). However, the risk and predictors of ICH from CCM remain uncertain. HYPOTHESIS: Presentation with ICH or non-hemorrhagic focal neurological deficit (FND) attributable to CCM, brainstem CCM location, female sex, increasing age and multiple CCM predict ICH occurrence during follow-up without CCM treatment. METHODS: Three hospital-based cohorts and two cohorts from a population-based study provided individual patient data on clinical course from CCM diagnosis until either first CCM treatment or last available follow-up. We used survival analysis of each cohort to estimate the 5-year risk of symptomatic ICH or new FND, multivariable Cox regression to identify baseline predictors of outcome, and random-effects models to pool estimates in meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 988 adults who experienced 62 ICHs during 3,232 person-years of follow-up, clinical presentation with ICH or FND (hazard ratio [HR] 7.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.9-19.2) and brainstem CCM location (HR 5.7, 95% CI 3.2-10.3) were associated with a higher risk of a first ICH within five years of CCM diagnosis, but age, sex and CCM multiplicity were not. The 5-year estimated risk of ICH during untreated follow-up was 2.4% (95% CI 1.0-3.8) for 566 adults without ICH/FND from CCM outside the brainstem, 5.5% (95% CI 0-12.9) for 51 adults without ICH/FND from brainstem CCM, 10.6% (95% CI 5.1-16.1) for 198 adults with ICH/FND from CCM outside the brainstem, and 25.7% (95% CI 18.3-33.1) for 173 adults with ICH/FND from brainstem CCM. In secondary analyses of first ICH or FND, event rates increased but predictors remained unchanged. CONCLUSION: Mode of clinical presentation and CCM location are independently associated with ICH or FND within five years of CCM diagnosis, which can inform decisions about CCM treatment.

OBJECTIVE Indication for surgery in brainstem cavernous malformations (BSCMs) is based on many case series, few comparative studies, and no randomized controlled trials. The objective of this study was to seek consensus about surgical management aspects of BSCM. METHODS A total of 29 experts were invited to participate in a multistep Delphi consensus process on the surgical treatment of BSCM. RESULTS Twenty-two (76%) of 29 experts participated in the consensus. Qualitative analysis (content analysis) of an initial open-ended question survey resulted in 99 statements regarding surgical treatment of BSCM. By using a multistep survey with 100% participation in each round, consensus was reached on 52 (53%) of 99 statements. These were grouped into 4 categories: 1) definitions and reporting standards (7/14, 50%); 2) general and patient-related aspects (11/16, 69%); 3) anatomical-, timing of surgery–, and BSCM-related aspects (22/37, 59%); and 4) clinical situation–based decision-making (12/32, 38%). Among other things, a consensus was reached for surgical timing, handling of associated developmental venous anomalies, handling of postoperative BSCM remnants, assessment of specific anatomical BSCM localizations, and treatment decisions in typical clinical BSCM scenarios. CONCLUSIONS A summary of typical clinical scenarios and a catalog of various BSCM- and patient-related aspects that influence the surgical treatment decision have been defined, rated, and interpreted.

Background: Accurate and reliable models of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) risk in the untreated course of brain arteriovenous malformation (BAVM) patients are needed to help weigh the risk-benefit of treatment. We present preliminary estimates of rates and risk factors for ICH or death in the Multicenter AVM Research Study (MARS), which is the largest individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) of cohort studies of unruptured BAVM. Methods: Longitudinal data from 9 cohorts comprising 2,839 unruptured BAVM at time of diagnosis were included: UCSF (n=557), Macquarie (n=462), Kaiser Permanente Northern California (n=354), Columbia (n=335), Barrow Neurological Institute (n=324), Tiantan Hospital (n=303), Mayo Clinic-Rochester (n=244), Scottish Intracranial Vascular Malformation Study (n=194), and Toronto Western Hospital (n=66). Clinical and angiographic data were collected using standardized definitions across cohorts. Cox proportional hazards analysis of time-to-event (ICH or death) in the untreated course after diagnosis was performed, censoring at first treatment or last visit. Baseline hazard rates were stratified by cohort to account for different rates and follow-up times. Results: The combined cohort was 49% female, 72% white race, and 17% Hispanic ethnicity; mean age at diagnosis was 37±17 years and mean follow-up was 3.4±7.0 years. The most common presenting symptom was seizures (43%). Mean AVM size was 3.5±1.9 cm and 46% were Spetzler-Martin grade I-II. Overall, 123 ICH and 131 deaths occurred over 9,608 person-years (PY) for an event rate of 2.64 per 100 PY [95% CI: 2.34-2.99]. Cox regression analyses adjusting for age at diagnosis (HR=1.67 [1.54, 1.82], P<0.001) identified cerebellar location (HR=1.73 [1.03-2.93], P=0.040) and exclusively deep venous drainage (HR=1.83 [1.09-3.09], P=0.022) as predictors. Conclusion: Our current model identified increasing age, exclusively deep venous drainage, and cerebellar location as risk factors for ICH or death in the untreated course of unruptured bAVM patients. Review of imaging data, multiple imputation of missing angioarchitectural data, and additional data from pending cohorts will provide greater power to search for additional risk factors in this ongoing IPDMA.

Introduction: Accurately balancing risks of interventional treatment and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in the untreated course of unruptured brain arteriovenous malformation (uBAVM) patients is critical for optimal management. Observational studies of uBAVM afford an opportunity to address important gaps and previous criticisms of randomized data to help guide treatment decisions and assess long-term risk/benefit ratio. We previously published an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) in 4 MARS cohorts and identified ICH presentation and increasing age as significant predictors of ICH during follow-up, but was not powered to detect predictors in those with uBAVM. Thus, the goals of this project are to identify risk factors for ICH in uBAVMs, to estimate the risk with precision, and to create personalized, risk-prediction models. Methods: MARS is an international, multi-center study of 11 cohorts with target enrollment of 4,500 uBAVM patients ascertained through population-based or referral-based studies. We are harmonizing both retrospective and prospective data, including clinical, lifestyle, imaging, and angiographic factors. Treatments, complications, and functional outcomes (physician and patient-reported) will be updated annually between 2018-2022. We propose to: 1) identify predictors of outcome in uBAVMs using IPDMA; 2) test whether long-term outcomes differ by treatment using statistical approaches for causal inference and unbiased estimates; 3) compare treatment outcomes in randomized and non-randomized data to address generalizability; and 4) validate models and provide a novel tool for calculating individualized risks. Eligible sites have: a) prior BAVM publications; b) data from a minimum of 100 uBAVM patients; c) agree to random outcome adjudication; and d) agree to MARS data sharing policy. Discussion: The NIH-funded MARS consortium will provide important and comprehensive characterization of the untreated and treated course of uBAVMs, using large observational datasets and sophisticated epidemiological approaches. The data and models generated will be a useful resource for decision-making. We welcome participation from eligible sites with longitudinal data on uBAVM patients