Weiner, Michael W.

AbstractMotivationDiseases that progress slowly are often studied by observing cohorts at different stages of disease for short periods of time. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) follows elders with various degrees of cognitive impairment, from normal to impaired. The study includes a rich panel of novel cognitive tests, biomarkers, and brain images collected every 6 months for as long as 6 years. The relative timing of the observations with respect to disease pathology is unknown. We propose a general semiparametric model and iterative estimation procedure to estimate simultaneously the pathological timing and long‐term growth curves. The resulting estimates of long‐term progression are fine‐tuned using cognitive trajectories derived from the long‐term “Personnes Agées Quid” study.ResultsWe demonstrate with simulations that the method can recover long‐term disease trends from short‐term observations. The method also estimates temporal ordering of individuals with respect to disease pathology, providing subject‐specific prognostic estimates of the time until onset of symptoms. When the method is applied to ADNI data, the estimated growth curves are in general agreement with prevailing theories of the Alzheimer's disease cascade. Other data sets with common outcome measures can be combined using the proposed algorithm.AvailabilitySoftware to fit the model and reproduce results with the statistical software R is available as the grace package. ADNI data can be downloaded from the Laboratory of NeuroImaging.

AbstractAlzheimer's disease is the public health crisis of the 21st century. There is a clear need for a widely available, inexpensive and reliable method to diagnosis Alzheimer's disease in the earliest stages, track disease progression, and accelerate clinical development of new therapeutics. One avenue of research being explored is blood based biomarkers. In April 2012, the Alzheimer's Association and the Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation convened top scientists from around the world to discuss the state of blood based biomarker development. This manuscript summarizes the meeting and the resultant discussion, including potential next steps to move this area of research forward.

Significance Beta-amyloid plaque accumulation, glucose hypometabolism, and neuronal atrophy are hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease. However, the regional ordering of these biomarkers prior to dementia remains untested. In a cohort with Alzheimer’s disease mutations, we performed an integrated whole-brain analysis of three major imaging techniques: amyloid PET, [ 18 F]fluro-deoxyglucose PET, and structural MRI. We found that most gray-matter structures with amyloid plaques later have hypometabolism followed by atrophy. Critically, however, not all regions lose metabolic function, and not all regions atrophy, even when there is significant amyloid deposition. These regional disparities have important implications for clinical trials of disease-modifying therapies.