Citations 299

Patterns of Care and Prognostic Modeling Following Follicular Lymphoma Transformation to Aggressive B-Cell Lymphoma: An Analysis from the LEO Consortium

Blood | December 1, 2023 | Volume: 142 | Issue: Supplement 1 | Pages: 3111-3111

10.1182/blood-2023-179650

Introduction: Histologic transformation (HT) from follicular lymphoma (FL) to an aggressive lymphoma is infrequent but has unfavorable outcomes. Sarkozy et al. (J Clin Oncol, 2019) reported that approximately half of FL-related deaths within the first decade of diagnosis occurred following HT. Our recent analysis showed heterogeneous outcomes with median overall survival (OS) of 61 months (Day et al., ASH, 2022). Prognostic tools post HT would be clinically useful but development has been limited by small cohort sizes. Factors previously associated with outcomes following HT have included age, time to progression, prior therapy, anthracycline exposure, and early HT. Utilizing the Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) Consortium of Real World Evidence (CReWE), we describe patterns of care and evaluate other prognostic factors following HT. Methods: This multicenter observational cohort consists of prospectively enrolled patients in the LEO Cohort, and patients with HT retrospectively identified at LEO centers. Patients diagnosed with biopsy proven grade 1-3A FL at diagnosis, and a subsequent biopsy showing HT to an aggressive lymphoma (FL grade 3B, diffuse large B cell lymphoma [DLBCL], or high-grade B cell lymphoma [HGBCL]) between 2002-2022, were eligible for the study. Patients with a component of FL grade 3B, DLBCL, or HGBCL at diagnosis were excluded. HGBCL was defined as double or triple hit or another aggressive subtype. OS was defined as the time from HT until death from any cause and calculated via Kaplan-Meier. Associations between clinical factors at time of HT and/or diagnosis and OS were evaluated using Cox models. Cause of death was evaluated using a competing risk approach. Results: Overall, 328 patients were confirmed with HT during the study period, 41% were female, and the median age at HT was 63 years (interquartile range [IQR] 56-70). The median time from diagnosis to transformation (TDT) was 35 months (IQR 12-66). At HT, 88% had advanced stage disease (III-IV) and LDH was elevated in 49%, while few patients exhibited B symptoms (5%) and ECOG performance status was >2 in 9%. 23% did not receive systemic therapy prior to HT. For those with prior therapy, the median time from prior therapy to HT was 15 months (IQR 7-39). The most frequent treatment regimens following HT were CD20-CHOP (42%), followed by platinum-based salvage therapy (20%), R-EPOCH (10%), CD20-Benda (8%), R-Mono (4%), and R-Gem-Ox (3%). 50 (15%) patients underwent consolidation with autologous stem cell transplant, 3 underwent allogeneic transplant (30 platinum-based, 15 CD20-CHOP, 5 R-EPOCH, 3 Other), and 2 received CAR T-cell therapy (Figure 1). After median follow-up of 85 months from HT, 170 patients had died; 5-year OS was 52% and median OS was 65 months (95% CI: 55-107). Among 160 patient deaths, cause was most often lymphoma-related (progression, n=107 [63%]; therapy-related, n=14 [7%]) compared to non-lymphoma (n=20, 13%) or missing/unknown causes (n=29, 17%). Clinical factors at the time of HT that were associated with worse OS include: ECOG PS >2, age ≥70, IPI 3-5, and shorter TDT (<24 months), hemoglobin <10 g/dl and elevated LDH. A transformation to HGBCL was also associated with inferior OS (Table 1). OS did not significantly differ by gender, BMI, stage, presence of B-symptoms, absolute lymphocyte count, number of extranodal groups, presence of bulky disease at HT, or response to prior FL treatment. Factors at the time of FL diagnosis that were associated with decreased OS after HT included FLIPI score 3-5 (high risk), FLIPI 2 (moderate risk), and FL grade 3A at diagnosis. Exposure to any systemic therapy for FL prior to HT was associated with shorter OS, with the worst outcomes in patients receiving an anthracycline prior to HT. POD24 to frontline immunochemotherapy was associated with inferior OS after HT (Table 1). Conclusions: Patterns of care in Transformed FL are heterogeneous and vary greatly in intensity. These data confirm previous reports that age, early HT, and any systemic therapies prior to HT are negative prognostic indicators for OS. At HT elevated LDH, low hemoglobin, POD24 status, poor performance status, and HT to HGBCL were associated with poor outcomes following HT. These data provide a basis for future prognostic indices to identify patients with highest risk of lymphoma related mortality for whom study of novel treatments is greatly needed.
Effectiveness of Chemo-Immunotherapy (CIT) and Novel Therapies in Second or Later Line of Therapy (2L+) for Patients with Relapsed/Refractory (R/R) Aggressive Large B-Cell Lymphoma (LBCL)

Blood | December 1, 2023 | Volume: 142 | Issue: Supplement 1 | Pages: 309-309

10.1182/blood-2023-174497

Aim: Patients with R/R LBCL after first-line treatment have poor prognosis. Multiple novel therapies have been approved for R/R LBCL in recent years, but CIT regimens are still commonly used. This study evaluated the effectiveness of CIT and novel therapies in 2L+ in patients with R/R LBCL and the association between patient clinical characteristics and real-world outcomes. Methods: This was a multi-site retrospective observational study of patients aged ≥18 years with R/R LBCL in the Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) Consortium of Real-World Evidence (CReWE) cohort (patients followed from 1/1/2015 to 2/15/2023) who were treated with CIT or novel therapy in 2L+. CIT regimens included salvage/palliative chemotherapy, lenalidomide, rituximab, or obinutuzumab, used alone or in combination. Novel therapies included polatuzumab vedotin plus bendamustine and rituximab or variations thereof (i.e., pola-based regimen), tafasitamab plus lenalidomide or variations thereof (tafa-based regimen), and loncastuximab tesirine (lonca). Patients' demographic and clinical characteristics were assessed from the first confirmed R/R disease diagnosis and initiation of 2L+ therapy. When multiple lines of therapy (LOTs) were eligible for inclusion in the analysis, one was randomly selected as the index LOT. Real-world outcomes, determined by investigators at each clinical site, including overall response rate (ORR), complete response (CR) rate, duration of response (DOR), duration of complete response (DOCR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were described for all patients in each treatment group and for the subgroup of patients with prior chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy. Multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to assess associations between select patient clinical characteristics and real-world outcomes. Results: The study population included patients treated with CIT (N=653), pola-based regimen (N=116), tafa-based regimen (N=55), and lonca (N=42) ( Figure 1A). The median (m) age at date of index treatment initiation across groups ranged from 63 to 74 years. Across groups, most patients had primary refractory disease-i.e., were refractory to the first LOT (69.5% CIT vs. 73.3% pola vs. 58.2% tafa vs. 71.4% lonca), whereas variable proportions had one prior LOT (65.5% vs. 17.2% vs. 43.6% vs. 7.1%) and prior CAR T-cell therapy (5.1% vs. 43.1% vs. 32.7% vs. 47.6%). In the CIT group, ORR was 33.8%, 15.5% of patients achieved CR, mPFS (95% CI) was 1.9 (1.7, 2.1) months, and mOS was 9.1 (8.1, 10.5) months. In the pola group, ORR was 42.2%, 24.1% of patients achieved CR, mPFS was 2.5 (2, 3.2) months and mOS was 7.8 (6.4, 11.8) months. In the tafa group, ORR was 25.5%, 14.5% of patients achieved CR, mPFS was 2.7 (2.1, 4.2) months, and mOS was 8 (5.3, 12.7) months. In the lonca group, ORR was 40.5%, 21.4% of patients achieved CR, mPFS was 3 (2.1, 5.1) months, and mOS was 4.7 (3.7, 10.8) months. Demographics and outcomes for all patients and those who received prior CAR T-cell therapy are summarized in Figure 1A. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, International Prognostic Index (IPI) risk score ≥3, CIT as the index treatment type, and primary refractory status were significantly associated with time from response to progression/death (P<0.05; Figure 1B). IPI risk score ≥3, CIT as the index treatment type, and primary refractory status were significantly associated with worse PFS. IPI risk ≥3, ≥3 prior LOTs, and primary refractory status were significantly associated with OS. Conclusion: In this large clinical cohort of patients with R/R LBCL with high proportions having primary refractory disease, all common treatments were associated with modest ORR/CR and poor OS. Receiving CIT treatments, higher IPI score, primary refractory status, and higher number of prior LOTs were significantly associated with poor clinical outcomes. A study with larger sample size and longer follow-up may be warranted to further understand the clinical effectiveness of novel treatments. Thus, despite the availability of novel treatments during the study period, these findings highlight the need for more effective treatment alternatives beyond currently available options to improve outcomes.
Ki-67 Expression of 50% Is the Optimal Cut-Off to Predict Survival Outcomes in Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL): A Pooled Analysis from CALGB 50403 (Alliance) and MCL Real-World Study Cohort

Blood | December 1, 2023 | Volume: 142 | Issue: Supplement 1 | Pages: 380-380

10.1182/blood-2023-189505

Introduction The Ki-67 index has been previously shown to be prognostic, wherein the cut-off of 30% was associated with inferior survival outcomes (Determann O et al, Blood 2008) in newly diagnosed MCL patients (pts). However, this cut-off determination was made in pts treated with CHOP/R-CHOP as the first-line treatment, controlled only for MIPI, and predates the advent of novel agents. Short diagnosis to treatment interval (DTI ≤ 14 days) was recently shown to be prognostic in newly diagnosed MCL but its association with Ki-67 is unknown. We sought to determine the optimal Ki-67 cut-off in MCL and its prognostic relevance in the modern era. Methods This is a pooled analysis of 2 large datasets, one prospective (CALGB 50403) and one retrospective (MCL real world study [MCL-RWS]). CALGB is now part of the Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology. CALGB 50403 is a phase II randomized study wherein newly diagnosed MCL pts received intensive induction chemoimmunotherapy (IIC) followed by autologous transplant, and posttransplant rituximab. The MCL-RWS included adult pts (≥18 years [yrs]) with MCL treated from 2000 to 2017 at 12 participating US sites. Pts from sites in the MCL-RWS that enrolled on CALGB 50403 were excluded. Ki-67 was scored by central review in 10% increments in the CALGB 50403 and per institutional standard in the MCL-RWS. We assessed Ki-67 as a continuous variable and used a restricted quadratic spline fit to find an optimal cut-off. We looked at the associations between Ki-67 and other known/ established MCL prognostic markers including MIPI and DTI. The outcome parameters were PFS and OS. Time-to-event endpoints were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard methods. Results Among the 793 pts (n=666, MCL-RWS and n=127, CALGB 50403) in the pooled analysis, Ki-67 was available in 385 pts (311 from MCL-RWS and 74 from CALGB 50403). The median OS (mOS) and PFS (mPFS) in the entire cohort (n=793) was 11.8 years and 4.7 years, respectively. The two groups (gps), those with and without Ki-67 data, were well balanced including MIPI and DTI. The median age was 62 yrs (range, 32-88), 81% males, 94% with ECOG performance status (PS) 0-1 and 84% with stage 4. We found a Ki-67 cut-off of 50% to be optimal as the relative hazard of death rises after 50%. Pts in the Ki-67 >50% gp had significantly higher proportion with short DTI (36% vs 17%, p<0.001), ECOG PS ≥2 (12% vs 5%, p=0.02), elevated LDH (58% vs 39%, p=0.005), and MIPI ≥6.2 (38% vs 20%, p=0.007) compared to Ki-67 of ≤50%. Ki-67 >50% was associated with significantly inferior PFS with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.10 (95%CI 1.50-2.92) compared to Ki-67 ≤50% with a mPFS of 2.1 vs 5.3 yrs, respectively, regardless of the age (young [≤65 yrs], 2.6 vs 5.3 yrs or old [>65 yrs], 1.1 vs 5.4 yrs) or receipt of IIC (2.2 vs 5.9 yrs). Figure 1 shows the statistically significant difference in PFS between the Ki-67 gps of ≤10%, >10% to <30%, ≥30 to ≤50%, and >50%. Ki-67 >50% remained prognostic for PFS in multivariable analysis (MVA) after adjusting for significant variables in univariable analysis (UVA) including short DTI, ECOG PS ≥2, stage 4, elevated LDH, and MIPI ≥6.2 with adjusted HR (aHR) 2.19, 95%CI 1.38-3.48, p <0.001. Ki-67 >50% was associated with significantly inferior OS with a HR of 2.10 (95%CI 1.33-3.32) compared to Ki-67 ≤50% with a mOS of 9.4 yrs vs not reached (NR), respectively, regardless of the age or receipt of IIC. Figure 2 shows the statistically significant difference in OS between the Ki-67 gps of ≤10%, >10% to <30%, ≥30 to ≤50%, and >50%. Ki-67 >50% was not prognostic for OS in MVA after adjusting for significant variables in the UVA (MIPI and sex), aHR 1.79, 95% CI 0.92-3.49, p=0.08. Similar findings were seen in multivariable analysis with Ki-67 >30%, which showed no prognostic significance (aHR 1.46, 95%CI 0.82-2.58, p=0.19). Because of disparate datasets, we performed sensitivity analysis looking at the prognostic relevance of in individual datasets (CALGB 50403 and MCL-RWS) and found Ki67 >50% was prognostic for PFS and OS in both of the datasets consistent with the primary analysis. Conclusions This study evaluating the optimal Ki-67 cut off for pts with newly diagnosed MCL in the modern era found that Ki-67 > 50% was prognostic for PFS but not OS in MVA. A potential reason for the lack of prognostic relevance for OS in this more recent dataset is the availability of effective options at relapse. We also found that short DTI was associated with high Ki-67 gp which is a novel finding.
Multicohort Study of Conditional Survival and Cause of Death After Achieving Event‐Free Survival at 24 Months (EFS24) in Patients With Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL)

Hematological Oncology | June 9, 2023 | Volume: 41 | Issue: S2 | Pages: 472-474

10.1002/hon.3164_347

MARGINAL ZONE LYMPHOMA INTERNATIONAL PROGNOSTIC INDEX (MZL‐IPI): A PROGNOSTIC SCORE FOR THE ENTIRE SPECTRUM OF MARGINAL ZONE LYMPHOMAS. A FIL AND SPORE‐MER STUDY

Hematological Oncology | June 9, 2023 | Volume: 41 | Issue: S2 | Pages: 102-103

10.1002/hon.3163_63

Molecular classification and identification of an aggressive signature in low‐grade B‐cell lymphomas

Hematological Oncology | May 31, 2023 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 4 | Pages: 644-654

10.1002/hon.3187 | PMID 37254453

Abstract Non‐follicular low‐grade B‐cell lymphomas (LGBCL) are biologically diverse entities that share clinical and histologic features that make definitive pathologic categorization challenging. While most patients with LGBCL have an indolent course, some experience aggressive disease, highlighting additional heterogeneity across these subtypes. To investigate the potential for shared biology across subtypes, we performed RNA sequencing and applied machine learning approaches that identified five clusters of patients that grouped independently of subtype. One cluster was characterized by inferior outcome, upregulation of cell cycle genes, and increased tumor immune cell content. Integration of whole exome sequencing identified novel LGBCL mutations and enrichment of TNFAIP3 and BCL2 alterations in the poor survival cluster. Building on this, we further refined a transcriptomic signature associated with early clinical failure in two independent cohorts. Taken together, this study identifies unique clusters of LGBCL defined by novel gene expression signatures and immune profiles associated with outcome across diagnostic subtypes.
Abstract 1181: Etiologic heterogeneity of genetic risk for DLBCL cell-of origin molecular subtypes

Cancer Research | April 4, 2023 | Volume: 83 | Issue: 7_Supplement | Pages: 1181-1181

10.1158/1538-7445.am2023-1181

Abstract Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is clinically and biologically heterogenous. Based on gene expression profiling of the tumor, DLBCL is classified into two major molecular subtypes linked to cell-of-origin (COO): germinal center (GCB) and activated B-Cell (ABC). The GCB subtype is characterized by a high prevalence of somatic mutations, particularly in apoptosis genes (e.g., BCL2) which is characteristic of follicular lymphoma (FL, another GCB lymphoma). The development of the validated NanoString gene expression test as well as immunohistochemistry markers that work in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue allows for the classification of DLBCL by COO in epidemiological studies. We hypothesized that integration of COO with germline genetics could provide insight into the underlying biology driving this heterogeneity, as well as insight into putative function of germline risk variants. Prior genome wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 7 SNPs in 6 susceptibility loci for DLBCL, including: 2p23.3 (rs79480871 NCOA1), 3q13.33 (rs9831894 CD86), 3p24.1 (rs6773363 EOMES), 6p21.33 (rs2523607 HLA-B), 6p25.3 (rs116446171 EXOC2), and 8q24.21 (rs13255292 and rs4733601 PVT1 and MYC). Two of these loci were also identified in FL GWAS (different lead SNPs): 6p21.33 (rs3130437) and 8q24.21 (rs13254990 PVT1). Additional published FL susceptibility loci include: 3q28 (rs6444305 LPP), 6p21.32 (rs9268839), 11q23.3 (rs4938573 CXCR5), 11q24.3 (rs4937362 ETS1), and 18q21.33 (rs17749561 BCL2). Here we evaluated whether the published DLBCL/FL loci differ by COO molecular subtypes. We evaluated each of the 14 DLBCL/FL SNPs by case-case (GCB vs. nonGCB DLBCL) and polytomous case-control (GCB, nonGCB, and FL vs. controls) analyses. DLBCL cases were classified into GCB vs. nonGCB based on best available data from NanoString, RNAseq, followed by the Hans algorithm. A total of 778 DLBCL cases (470 GCB and 308 nonGCB), 1,050 FL cases, and 1,383 controls were analyzed. Odds ratios (OR) based on ordinal encoding of each SNP and 95% CI were calculated for each of the comparison groups. The ORs for four GWAS SNPs were significantly elevated in GCB vs. nonGCB DLBCL as well as in FL; two were FL GWAS SNPs from the HLA region (6p21.32 and 6p21.33) and the other two (BCL2 and ETS1) are important in the germinal center program. In contrast, one SNP (EXOC2) was significantly elevated in nonGCB-DLBCL and was not associated with GCB-DLBCL or FL; this SNP is also near IRF4 (MUM1), a gene important in the ABC program. For the remaining SNPs, there were suggestive associations for GCB-DLBCL and FL versus nonGCB DLBCL (CD86, CXCR5); nonGCB-DLBCL vs. GCB-DLBCL and FL (NCOA1, PVT1); and associations that showed no pattern with COO (EOMES, LPP, HLA-B and MYC). These findings provide insight into the shared pathogenesis of FL and GCB-DLBCL to inform etiologic mechanisms and risk assessment. Citation Format: Rosalie Griffin Waller, Dennis P. Robinson, Anne J. Novak, Lisa M. Rimsza, Kerstin Wenzl, Rebecca L. King, Andrew L. Feldman, Matthew J. Maurer, Grzegorz S. Nowakowski, Brian K. Link, Thomas M. Habermann, Susan L. Slager, James R. Cerhan. Etiologic heterogeneity of genetic risk for DLBCL cell-of origin molecular subtypes [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 1181.
Outcomes of patients with limited‐stage plasmablastic lymphoma: A multi‐institutional retrospective study

American Journal of Hematology | January 2, 2023 | Volume: 98 | Issue: 2 | Pages: 300-308

10.1002/ajh.26784 | PMID 36588409

AbstractPlasmablastic lymphoma (PBL) is a rare entity, commonly associated with immunosuppressed states such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or solid organ transplant. The clinical course is characterized by high relapse rates and a poor prognosis, leading some clinicians to recommend aggressive frontline therapy. However, a specific review of limited stage (LS) PBL patients is not available to evaluate outcomes and justify treatment recommendations. We performed a retrospective review of LS PBL cases to provide insight into this rare disease. Our cohort consisted of 80 stage I or II PBL patients from 13 US academic centers. With a median follow up of 34 months (1–196), the 3‐year progression‐free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of the entire cohort were 72% (95% CI 62, 83) and 79% (95% CI 70, 89), respectively. The 3‐year PFS and OS of patients treated with frontline chemotherapy alone was 65% (95% CI 50, 84) and 71% (95% CI 56, 89), respectively, compared to 85% (95% CI 72, 100) and 96% (95% CI 89, 100), respectively, in patients treated with combined frontline chemotherapy with radiation consolidation. Our data demonstrate favorable outcomes in LS PBL with no improvements in outcome from aggressive frontline treatment including Hyper‐CVAD or auto‐SCT consolidation. Multivariate regression analysis (MRA) demonstrated improved PFS for patients receiving EPOCH based frontline therapy versus CHOP (HR: 0.23; p = 0.029). Frontline chemotherapy followed by radiation consolidation versus chemotherapy alone appeared to be associated with improved relapse and survival outcomes but did not show statistical significance in MRA.
Impact of diagnosis to treatment interval in patients with newly diagnosed mantle cell lymphoma

Blood Advances | December 14, 2022 | Volume: 7 | Issue: 11 | Pages: 2287-2296

10.1182/bloodadvances.2022009225 | PMID 36516079

Abstract The prognostic relevance of diagnosis to treatment interval (DTI) in patients with newly diagnosed mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is unknown. Hence, we sought to evaluate the impact of DTI on outcomes in MCL using 3 large datasets (1) the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic Specialized Program of Research Excellence Molecular Epidemiology Resource, (2) patients enrolled in the ALL Age Asthma Cohort/CALGB 50403, and (3) a multisitecohort of patients with MCL. Patients were a priori divided into 2 groups, 0 to 14 days (short DTI) and 15 to 60 days (long DTI). The patients in whom observation was deemed appropriate were excluded. One thousand ninety-seven patients newly diagnosed with MCL and available DTI were included in the study. The majority (73%) had long DTI (n=797). Patients with short DTI had worse eastern cooperative oncology group performance status (ECOG PS ≥2), higher lactate dehydrogenase, bone marrow involvement, more frequent B symptoms, higher MCL International Prognostic Index (MIPI ≥6.2), and were less likely to receive intensive induction therapy than long DTI group. The median progression-free survival (2.5 years vs 4.8 years, p<0.0001) and overall survival (7.8 years vs. 11.8 years, p<0.0001) were significantly inferior in the short DTI group than the long DTI cohort and remained significant for progression-free survival and overall survival in multivariable analysis. We show that the DTI is an important prognostic factor in patients newly diagnosed with MCL and is strongly associated with adverse clinical factors and poor outcomes. DTI should be reported in all the patients newly diagnosed with MCL who are enrolling in clinical trials and steps must be taken to ensure selection bias is avoided.
The Advanced-Stage Hodgkin Lymphoma International Prognostic Index: Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model From the HoLISTIC Consortium

Journal of Clinical Oncology | December 10, 2022 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 11 | Pages: 2076-2086

10.1200/jco.22.02473 | PMID 36495588

PURPOSE The International Prognostic Score (IPS) has been used in classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) for 25 years. However, analyses have documented suboptimal performance of the IPS among contemporarily treated patients. Harnessing multisource individual patient data from the Hodgkin Lymphoma International Study for Individual Care consortium, we developed and validated a modern clinical prediction model. METHODS Model development via Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis guidelines was performed on 4,022 patients with newly diagnosed advanced-stage adult cHL from eight international phase III clinical trials, conducted from 1996 to 2014. External validation was performed on 1,431 contemporaneously treated patients from four real-world cHL registries. To consider association over a full range of continuous variables, we evaluated piecewise linear splines for potential nonlinear relationships. Five-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS The median age in the development cohort was 33 (18-65) years; nodular sclerosis was the most common histology. Kaplan-Meier estimators were 0.77 for 5-year PFS and 0.92 for 5-year OS. Significant predictor variables included age, sex, stage, bulk, absolute lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, and albumin, with slight variation for PFS versus OS. Moreover, age and absolute lymphocyte count yielded nonlinear relationships with outcomes. Optimism-corrected c-statistics in the development model for 5-year PFS and OS were 0.590 and 0.720, respectively. There was good discrimination and calibration in external validation and consistent performance in internal-external validation. Compared with the IPS, there was superior discrimination for OS and enhanced calibration for PFS and OS. CONCLUSION We rigorously developed and externally validated a clinical prediction model in > 5,000 patients with advanced-stage cHL. Furthermore, we identified several novel nonlinear relationships and improved the prediction of patient outcomes. An online calculator was created for individualized point-of-care use.