Thongprayoon, Charat

Background: Our study aimed to characterize kidney transplant recipients who received high kidney donor profile index (KDPI) kidneys using unsupervised machine learning approach. Methods: We used the OPTN/UNOS database from 2010 to 2019 to perform consensus cluster analysis based on recipient-, donor-, and transplant-related characteristics in 8935 kidney transplant recipients from deceased donors with KDPI ≥ 85%. We identified each cluster’s key characteristics using the standardized mean difference of >0.3. We compared the posttransplant outcomes among the assigned clusters. Results: Consensus cluster analysis identified 6 clinically distinct clusters of kidney transplant recipients from donors with high KDPI. Cluster 1 was characterized by young, black, hypertensive, non-diabetic patients who were on dialysis for more than 3 years before receiving kidney transplant from black donors; cluster 2 by elderly, white, non-diabetic patients who had preemptive kidney transplant or were on dialysis less than 3 years before receiving kidney transplant from older white donors; cluster 3 by young, non-diabetic, retransplant patients; cluster 4 by young, non-obese, non-diabetic patients who received dual kidney transplant from pediatric, black, non-hypertensive non-ECD deceased donors; cluster 5 by low number of HLA mismatch; cluster 6 by diabetes mellitus. Cluster 4 had the best patient survival, whereas cluster 3 had the worst patient survival. Cluster 2 had the best death-censored graft survival, whereas cluster 4 and cluster 3 had the worst death-censored graft survival at 1 and 5 years, respectively. Cluster 2 and cluster 4 had the best overall graft survival at 1 and 5 years, respectively, whereas cluster 3 had the worst overall graft survival. Conclusions: Unsupervised machine learning approach kidney transplant recipients from donors with high KDPI based on their pattern of clinical characteristics into 6 clinically distinct clusters.

Background: We aimed to develop and validate an automated machine learning (autoML) prediction model for cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI). Methods: Using 69 preoperative variables, we developed several models to predict post-operative AKI in adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Models included autoML and non-autoML types, including decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN), as well as a logistic regression prediction model. We then compared model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and assessed model calibration using Brier score on the independent testing dataset. Results: The incidence of CSA-AKI was 36%. Stacked ensemble autoML had the highest predictive performance among autoML models, and was chosen for comparison with other non-autoML and multivariable logistic regression models. The autoML had the highest AUROC (0.79), followed by RF (0.78), XGBoost (0.77), multivariable logistic regression (0.77), ANN (0.75), and DT (0.64). The autoML had comparable AUROC with RF and outperformed the other models. The autoML was well-calibrated. The Brier score for autoML, RF, DT, XGBoost, ANN, and multivariable logistic regression was 0.18, 0.18, 0.21, 0.19, 0.19, and 0.18, respectively. We applied SHAP and LIME algorithms to our autoML prediction model to extract an explanation of the variables that drive patient-specific predictions of CSA-AKI. Conclusion: We were able to present a preoperative autoML prediction model for CSA-AKI that provided high predictive performance that was comparable to RF and superior to other ML and multivariable logistic regression models. The novel approaches of the proposed explainable preoperative autoML prediction model for CSA-AKI may guide clinicians in advancing individualized medicine plans for patients under cardiac surgery.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health problem, affecting between 8% and 16% of the population worldwide [...]

Background: There is limited evidence on the association of serum phosphate with mortality in patients receiving continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Objective: To assess the association of serum phosphate with mortality in critically ill patients requiring CRRT for acute kidney injury (AKI). Design: A cohort study. Setting: A tertiary referral hospital in the United States. Patients: Acute kidney injury patients receiving CRRT from 2006 through 2015 in intensive care units. Measurements: (1) Serum phosphate before CRRT and (2) mean serum phosphate during CRRT were categorized into 3 groups; ≤2.4 (hypophosphatemia), 2.5 to 4.5 (normal serum phosphate group), and ≥4.6 (hyperphosphatemia) mg/dL. Methods: Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between serum phosphate and 90-day mortality. Results: A total of 1108 patients were included in this study. Of these, 55% died within 90 days after CRRT initiation. Before CRRT, 3%, 30%, and 66% had hypophosphatemia, normophosphatemia, and hyperphosphatemia, respectively. Before CRRT, both hypophosphatemia and hyperphosphatemia were significantly associated with higher 90-day mortality with the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 2.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.03, 4.78]) and 1.62 (95% CI: [1.21, 2.18]), respectively. During CRRT, 3%, 85%, and 12% had mean serum phosphate in hypophosphatemia, normophosphatemia, and hyperphosphatemia range. During CRRT, hyperphosphatemia was significantly associated with higher 90-day mortality with adjusted OR of 2.22 (95% CI: [1.45, 3.38]). Limitations: Single center, observational design, lack of information regarding causes of serum phosphate derangement. Conclusion: Most CRRT patients had hyperphosphatemia before CRRT initiation but maintain normal serum phosphate during CRRT. Before CRRT, hypo- and hyperphosphatemia, and during CRRT, hyperphosphatemia predicted higher mortality. Trial registration: Not registered.

Background The urine metabolites and chemistries that contribute to kidney stone formation are not fully understood. This study examined differences between the urine metabolic and chemistries profiles of first-time stone formers and controls. Methods High-resolution 1 H-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-based metabolomic analysis was performed in 24-hour urine samples from a prospective cohort of 418 first-time symptomatic kidney stone formers and 440 controls. In total, 48 NMR-quantified metabolites in addition to 12 standard urine chemistries were assayed. Analysis of covariance was used to determine the association of stone former status with urine metabolites or chemistries after adjusting for age and sex and correcting for the false discovery rate. Gradient-boosted machine methods with nested cross-validation were applied to predict stone former status. Results Among the standard urine chemistries, stone formers had lower urine oxalate and potassium and higher urine calcium, phosphate, and creatinine. Among NMR urine metabolites, stone formers had lower hippuric acid, trigonelline, 2-furoylglycine, imidazole, and citrate and higher creatine and alanine. A cross-validated model using urine chemistries, age, and sex yielded a mean AUC of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.79). A cross-validated model using urine chemistries, NMR-quantified metabolites, age, and sex did not meaningfully improve the discrimination (mean AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.81). In this combined model, among the top ten discriminating features, four were urine chemistries and six NMR-quantified metabolites. Conclusions Although NMR-quantified metabolites did not improve discrimination, several urine metabolic profiles were identified that may improve understanding of kidney stone pathogenesis.

Background: This study aimed to better characterize morbidly obese kidney transplant recipients, their clinical characteristics, and outcomes by using an unsupervised machine learning approach. Methods: Consensus cluster analysis was applied to OPTN/UNOS data from 2010 to 2019 based on recipient, donor, and transplant characteristics in kidney transplant recipients with a pre-transplant BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2. Key cluster characteristics were identified using the standardized mean difference. Post-transplant outcomes, including death-censored graft failure, patient death, and acute allograft rejection, were compared among the clusters. Results: Consensus clustering analysis identified 3204 kidney transplant recipients with a BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2. In this cohort, five clinically distinct clusters were identified. Cluster 1 recipients were predominantly white and non-sensitized, had a short dialysis time or were preemptive, and were more likely to receive living donor kidney transplants. Cluster 2 recipients were older and diabetic. They were likely to have been on dialysis >3 years and receive a standard KDPI deceased donor kidney. Cluster 3 recipients were young, black, and had kidney disease secondary to hypertension or glomerular disease. Cluster 3 recipients had >3 years of dialysis and received non-ECD, young, deceased donor kidney transplants with a KDPI < 85%. Cluster 4 recipients were diabetic with variable dialysis duration who either received non-ECD standard KDPI kidneys or living donor kidney transplants. Cluster 5 recipients were young retransplants that were sensitized. One-year patient survival in clusters 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 was 98.0%, 94.4%, 98.5%, 98.7%, and 97%, and one-year death-censored graft survival was 98.1%, 93.0%, 96.1%, 98.8%, and 93.0%, respectively. Cluster 2 had the worst one-year patient survival. Clusters 2 and 5 had the worst one-year death-censored graft survival. Conclusions: With the application of unsupervised machine learning, variable post-transplant outcomes are observed among morbidly obese kidney transplant recipients. Recipients with earlier access to transplant and living donation show superior outcomes. Unexpectedly, reduced graft survival in cluster 3 recipients perhaps underscores socioeconomic access to post-transplant support and minorities being disadvantaged in access to preemptive and living donor transplants. Despite obesity-related concerns, one-year patient and graft survival were favorable in all clusters, and obesity itself should be reconsidered as a hard barrier to kidney transplantation.

Background: There have been concerns regarding increased perioperative mortality, length of hospital stay, and rates of graft loss in kidney transplant recipients with functional limitations. The application of machine learning consensus clustering approach may provide a novel understanding of unique phenotypes of functionally limited kidney transplant recipients with distinct outcomes in order to identify strategies to improve outcomes. Methods: Consensus cluster analysis was performed based on recipient-, donor-, and transplant-related characteristics in 3205 functionally limited kidney transplant recipients (Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) < 40% at transplant) in the OPTN/UNOS database from 2010 to 2019. Each cluster’s key characteristics were identified using the standardized mean difference. Posttransplant outcomes, including death-censored graft failure, patient death, and acute allograft rejection were compared among the clusters Results: Consensus cluster analysis identified two distinct clusters that best represented the clinical characteristics of kidney transplant recipients with limited functional status prior to transplant. Cluster 1 patients were older in age and were more likely to receive deceased donor kidney transplant with a higher number of HLA mismatches. In contrast, cluster 2 patients were younger, had shorter dialysis duration, were more likely to be retransplants, and were more likely to receive living donor kidney transplants from HLA mismatched donors. As such, cluster 2 recipients had a higher PRA, less cold ischemia time, and lower proportion of machine-perfused kidneys. Despite having a low KPS, 5-year patient survival was 79.1 and 83.9% for clusters 1 and 2; 5-year death-censored graft survival was 86.9 and 91.9%. Cluster 1 had lower death-censored graft survival and patient survival but higher acute rejection, compared to cluster 2. Conclusion: Our study used an unsupervised machine learning approach to characterize kidney transplant recipients with limited functional status into two clinically distinct clusters with differing posttransplant outcomes.