Garg, Ravindra Kumar

Abstract INTRODUCTION Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that needs better predictive tools. Using the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set, this study developed machine learning (ML) models and a practical clinical tool for AD prediction. METHODS Data from 52,537 individuals (22,371 with AD) and more than 200 variables were processed with MissForest imputation and genetic algorithm‐based selection. Multiple ML models were trained, and interpretability was performed using SHAP and permutation importance. A LightGBM model was refined through iterative backward feature elimination (IBFE) followed by manual refinement. RESULTS LightGBM performed best (receiver operating characteristic‐area under the curve [ROC‐AUC] 0.91, accuracy 82.0%). Key predictors included arthritis, age, body mass index, and heart rate. A 19‐feature model retained accuracy (81.2%) and ROC‐AUC (0.90). DISCUSSION This lightweight tool predicts AD using mostly routine variables. Limitations include its cross‐sectional nature, and would need external validation. An interactive web app and GitHub resource are available. Highlights Developed a lightweight ML based tool using 19 routinely available features. The lightweight model achieved an ROC-AUC of 0.90 for Alzheimer's disease prediction on NACC multicenter data. Genetic algorithm, IBFE, and manual refinement enabled optimal feature selection. Tool hosted on an open‐access platform for clinical and research use. SHAP analysis provided model interpretability and feature‐level insights.

Importance Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) represents the third most common stroke type with unique etiologies, risk factors, diagnostics, and treatments. Nevertheless, epidemiological studies often cluster SAH with other stroke types leaving its distinct burden estimates obscure. Objective To estimate the worldwide burden of SAH. Design, Setting, and Participants Based on the repeated cross-sectional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the global burden of SAH in 1990 to 2021 was estimated. Moreover, the SAH burden was compared with other diseases, and its associations with 14 individual risk factors were investigated with available data in the GBD 2021 study. The GBD study included the burden estimates of nontraumatic SAH among all ages in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2021. Exposures SAH and 14 modifiable risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of SAH incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as well as risk factor–specific population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results In 2021, the global age-standardized SAH incidence was 8.3 (95% UI, 7.3-9.5), prevalence was 92.2 (95% UI, 84.1-100.6), mortality was 4.2 (95% UI, 3.7-4.8), and DALY rate was 125.2 (95% UI, 110.5-142.6) per 100 000 people. The highest burden estimates were found in Latin America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and high-income Asia Pacific. Although the absolute number of SAH cases increased, especially in regions with a low sociodemographic index, all age-standardized burden rates decreased between 1990 and 2021: the incidence by 28.8% (95% UI, 25.7%-31.6%), prevalence by 16.1% (95% UI, 14.8%-17.7%), mortality by 56.1% (95% UI, 40.7%-64.3%), and DALY rate by 54.6% (95% UI, 42.8%-61.9%). Of 300 diseases, SAH ranked as the 36th most common cause of death and 59th most common cause of DALY in the world. Of all worldwide SAH-related DALYs, 71.6% (95% UI, 63.8%-78.6%) were associated with the 14 modeled risk factors of which high systolic blood pressure (population attributable fraction [PAF] = 51.6%; 95% UI, 38.0%-62.6%) and smoking (PAF = 14.4%; 95% UI, 12.4%-16.5%) had the highest attribution. Conclusions and Relevance Although the global age-standardized burden rates of SAH more than halved over the last 3 decades, SAH remained one of the most common cardiovascular and neurological causes of death and disabilities in the world, with increasing absolute case numbers. These findings suggest evidence for the potential health benefits of proactive public health planning and resource allocation toward the prevention of SAH.