Claros, Ana Gabriela

Background: Incidental thyroid nodules (ITNs) detected on nonthyroid imaging contribute to thyroid cancer overdiagnosis, largely through downstream evaluation initiated by thyroid ultrasound (TUS). However, TUS follow-up rates for ITNs and their drivers in routine practice remain unclear. We quantified TUS utilization after ITN detection and identified patient, imaging, nodule, and reporting factors associated with this first step in the diagnostic cascade. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults without prior thyroid disease who underwent imaging that incidentally captured the thyroid at Mayo Clinic sites (2017–2023). A validated natural language processing pipeline identified ITNs and extracted nodule characteristics from radiology reports across multiple imaging modalities. The main outcome was the rate of TUS within 180 days after ITN detection. Clinical outcomes, including thyroid biopsy, thyroidectomy, and thyroid cancer diagnosis, were compared between patients who underwent TUS and those who did not. Factors associated with TUS utilization were assessed using multivariable logistic regression with penalized variable selection. Results: Among 115,683 patients who underwent thyroid-capturing imaging, 8426 (7.3%) had an ITN. These patients were predominantly female (64.6%) and White (89.7%), with a mean age of 61.7 years (standard deviation 15.2). Most nodules were detected on computed tomography (80.8%), most commonly from chest imaging (52.3%). Overall, 1677 patients with ITNs (19.9%) underwent TUS. In multivariable analysis, TUS use was independently associated with higher body mass index (odds ratio [OR], 1.20 per 10-unit increase; confidence interval [CI] [1.08–1.33]), nodule size ≥1.5 cm (OR, 1.79; CI [1.52–2.10]), and a radiologist recommendation (OR, 2.51; CI [2.12–2.98]), whereas older age was associated with lower odds of TUS (OR, 0.89 per 10-year increase; CI [0.84–0.93]). Patients undergoing TUS had higher rates of thyroid biopsy, partial thyroidectomy, and total thyroidectomy compared with those without it. All detected thyroid cancers (103 cases) occurred in the TUS group, representing 6.1% of that cohort. Conclusions: One in five patients with ITNs underwent TUS, representing a critical gateway to downstream diagnostic procedures and thyroid cancer detection. Factors associated with TUS utilization highlight opportunities to better define appropriateness of ultrasound after incidental nodule detection and to reduce unnecessary testing and treatment.

Abstract Context Incidental thyroid findings (ITFs) are increasingly detected on imaging performed for non-thyroid indications. Their prevalence, features, and consequences remain undefined. Objective To develop, validate, and deploy a natural language processing (NLP) pipeline to identify ITFs in radiology reports and assess their prevalence, features, and clinical outcomes. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Mayo Clinic sites (Rochester, Arizona, Florida, Mayo Clinic Health System). Participants Adults without prior thyroid disease undergoing thyroid-capturing imaging from July 1, 2017, to September 30, 2023. A transformer-based NLP pipeline identified ITFs and extracted nodule characteristics from image reports from multiple modalities and body regions. Outcomes ITF prevalence, downstream thyroid ultrasound, biopsy, thyroidectomy, and cancer diagnosis. Logistic regression identified demographic and imaging-related factors. Results Among 115 683 patients (mean age, 56.8 [SD 17.2]; 52.9% women), 9077 (7.8%) had an ITF (92.9% nodular). ITFs were more likely in women, older adults, higher BMI, and in imaging ordered by specialties different from Emergency Medicine. Compared with chest CT, ITFs were more likely via neck CT, PET, and nuclear medicine scans. Nodule characteristics were poorly documented, with size reported in 44% and other features in fewer than 15%. Compared with patients without ITFs, those with ITFs had higher odds of thyroid nodule diagnosis (OR 45, 95%CI 41.1-49.3), biopsy (OR 46.8, 95%CI 39.0-56.2) thyroidectomy (OR 55.8, 95%CI 31.3-99.3), and thyroid cancer diagnosis (OR 61.7, 95%CI 38.6-98.5). Most cancers were papillary (88.5%) and larger when detected after ITFs (2 cm SD 1.4) vs no ITF (1.3 cm SD 0.8). Conclusion ITFs were common and strongly associated with cascades leading to the detection of small, low-risk cancers, highlighting their role in overdiagnosis and the need for standardized reporting and more selective follow-up.

ImportanceThyroid cancer incidence has tripled in the past 3 decades, largely driven by increased detection of small, indolent papillary thyroid cancers. Overuse of thyroid ultrasonography (TUS) contributes to overdiagnosis, leading to unnecessary biopsies, procedures, and potential patient harm.ObjectiveTo evaluate the frequency of and factors associated with inappropriate TUS (iTUS) orders and assess related clinical outcomes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis retrospective cohort study analyzed adult patients 18 years and older who underwent their first TUS from January 1, 2017, to December 30, 2021, at 4 Mayo Clinic sites. Patients with previous thyroid nodule, thyroid cancer, thyroid surgery, or TUS were excluded. Based on documented clinical indications, a validated natural language processing model classified TUS orders as appropriate or inappropriate. Data were analyzed from April 2024 to May 2025.ExposuresBaseline characteristics of patients, clinicians, and clinical encounters investigated for their association with an iTUS order.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was the proportion of iTUS orders. Secondary outcomes included factors associated with iTUS (sociodemographic, clinical, order-specific, and clinician-related factors) and clinical outcomes following iTUS, including the detection of thyroid nodules, thyroid procedures, and thyroid cancer diagnoses.ResultsOf 11 442 included patients, 8422 (73.6%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 57.3 (15.8) years with a mean (SD) body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 29.7 (7.0). Among 11 442 TUS orders, 866 (7.6%) were classified as inappropriate. In multivariable analysis, younger age (age of 18 to 54 years vs older than 65 years; odds ratio [OR], 1.86; 95% CI, 1.56-2.22), hyperthyroidism (OR, 9.04; 95% CI, 6.75-12.11), ordering by nonendocrinology specialties (eg, oncology/hematology; OR, 3.43; 95% CI, 2.47-4.76), and orders not linked to an in-person appointment (eg, portal messages; OR, 2.42; 95% CI, 2.08-2.82) were strongly associated with increased odds of iTUS. Compared with appropriate TUS, iTUS led to lower rates of thyroid nodule detection (202 of 866 [23.3%] vs 6885 of 10 576 [65.1%]; OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.14-0.19), biopsies (89 [10.3%] vs 2647 [25.0%]; OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.27-0.43), partial thyroidectomies (14 [1.6%] vs 424 [4.0%]; OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.23-0.67), and confirmed thyroid cancer cases (16 [1.8%] vs 425 [4.0%]; OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.27-0.74).Conclusions and RelevanceIn this cohort study, approximately 1 in 13 TUS orders were inappropriate. iTUS was more common in younger patients, those with thyroid dysfunction, those not seen in person, and in those referred by nonendocrinology specialties. These findings highlight the need for targeted strategies to optimize TUS use and mitigate overdiagnosis and overtreatment.