Guglielmelli, Paola

ABSTRACT Survival prediction models in essential thrombocythemia (ET) include the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSET) and the more recently introduced triple‐A (AAA) prognostic score. The latter enlists age and absolute neutrophil (ANC) and lymphocyte (ALC) counts as risk variables. In the current study, a Mayo Clinic discovery cohort of 658 patients with ET was used to identify AAA‐independent risk variables. Accordingly, multivariable analysis‐derived HRs (95% CI) were 15.7 (8.4–29.5) for age > 70 years (8 points); 4.2 (2.3–7.5) for age 50 to 70 years (2 points); 1.8 (1.2–2.5) for ANC ≥ 8 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.4 (1.03–1.9) for ALC < 1.7 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.8 (1.2–2.6) for absolute monocyte count (AMC) ≥ 0.5 × 10 9 /L (1 point); 1.8 (1.2–2.3) for male sex (1 point); 1.8 (1.3–2.4) for arterial hypertension (1 point); and 1.6 (1.2–2.3) for arterial thrombosis (1 point). HR‐weighted scoring enabled a 4‐tiered risk classification: ultra‐low (0–1 points; N = 94; median survival 42.7 years), low (2–4 points; N = 297; 23 years), intermediate (5 points; N = 66; 17.3 years), and high (6–14 points; N = 201; 10.8 years). Time‐dependent predictive performance at 20/25 years favored AAA + (AUC 0.92/0.91) vs. AAA (0.86/0.86) vs. IPSET (0.81/0.84). The AAA + risk model was subsequently validated by two external cohorts from Israel ( N = 5968) and Italy ( N = 682). In the cohort from Israel, disease‐specific mortality was assessed by comparing observed survival to an age‐ and sex‐matched reference population, which suggested near‐normal life expectancy in ultra‐low risk patients. The current study highlights host‐related factors as the primary determinants of longevity in ET and provides a composite risk score (AAA + ) that is based on complete blood count‐derived parameters and host‐related factors. Predictive performance of the new model was shown to be superior to that of IPSET and AAA.

Abstract Among 281 patients with essential thrombocythemia and calreticulin (CALR) mutation, we found a variant allele frequency of ≥60% to be associated with significantly shortened myelofibrosis-free survival, mostly apparent with CALR type-1 and CALR type-indeterminate mutations.

Abstract The current retrospective study involving a total of 1607 patients was designed to identify clinical and molecular variables that were predictive of inferior myelofibrosis‐free survival (MFS) in WHO‐defined essential thrombocythemia (ET), utilizing three independent patient cohorts: University of Florence, Italy ( n = 718); Mayo Clinic, USA ( n = 479) and Policlinico Gemelli, Catholic University, Rome, Italy ( n = 410). The Florence patient cohort was first examined to identify independent risk factors for MFS, which included age > 60 years (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3–4.9), male sex (2.1, 1.2–3.9), palpable splenomegaly (2.1, 1.2–3.9), CALR 1/1‐like or MPL mutation (3.4, 1.9–6.1) and JAK2 V617F variant allele frequency > 35% (4.2, 1.6–10.8). Subsequently, an operational molecular risk category was developed and validated in the other two cohorts from Mayo Clinic and Rome: “high molecular risk” category included patients with JAK2 V617F VAF >35%, CALR type 1/1‐like or MPL mutations; all other driver mutation profiles were assigned to “low molecular risk” category. The former, compared to the latter molecular risk category, displayed significantly higher risk of fibrotic transformation: Florence cohort with respective fibrotic transformation risk rates of 8% vs. 1.2% at 10 years and 33% vs. 8% at 20 years ( p < 0.001; HR 6.1; 95% CI 3.2–11.7); Mayo Cohort, 16% vs. 7% at 10 years and 44% vs. 25% at 20 years ( p < 0.001; HR 2.5; 95% CI 1.6–4.1); and Rome cohort 7.8% vs. 4.6% at 10 years and 31.2% vs. 7.1% at 20 years ( p = 0.007, HR 2.7; 95% CI 1.3–5.8). The present study provides practically useful risk signals for fibrotic transformation in ET and facilitates identification of patients who require close monitoring and appropriate counseling.

Abstract Venetoclax (Ven) combined with a hypomethylating agent (HMA) has now emerged as an effective treatment regimen for acute myeloid leukemia, in both de novo and relapsed/refractory setting. The current multicenter study retrospectively examined Ven + HMA treatment outcome among 32 patients (median age 69 years; 59% males) with blast‐phase myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN‐BP). Pre‐leukemic phenotype included essential thrombocythemia (ET)/post‐ET myelofibrosis (34%), polycythemia vera (PV)/post‐PV myelofibrosis (38%) and primary myelofibrosis (28%). Twenty‐nine study patients were fully annotated cytogenetically and molecularly (NGS): 69% harbored complex karyotype and/or mutations, including TP53 (41%), IDH1/2 (21%), ASXL1 (21%), N/KRAS (14%), SRSF2 (10%), EZH2 (10%) and U2AF1 (7%). All patients received Ven combined with either azacitidine ( n = 12) or decitabine ( n = 20); either up front ( n = 23) or after failing another induction therapy ( n = 9). Complete remission with (CR) or without (CRi) count recovery was achieved in 14 (44%) patients and was more likely to occur in the absence of pre‐leukemic PV/post‐PV myelofibrosis phenotype ( p < .01), complex karyotype ( p < .01) or K/NRAS ( p = .03) mutations; seven of eight patients (88%) without vs four of 21 (19%) with complex karyotype or K/NRAS mutation achieved CR/CRi ( p < .01); all 11 informative patients with pre‐leukemic PV/post‐PV myelofibrosis phenotype displayed complex karyotype ( p < .01). In contrast, neither TP53 ( p = .45) nor IDH1/2 ( p = .63) mutations affected response. Compared to historical controls treated with HMA alone ( n = 26), the CR/CRi rate (44% vs 4%) and median survival (8 vs 5.5 months) were more favorable with Ven + HMA, but without significant difference in overall survival. Importantly, six patients with CR/CRi subsequently received allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (AHSCT). Note, Ven + HMA produces robust CR/CRi rates in MPN‐BP, especially in the absence of RAS mutations and complex karyotype, thus enabling AHSCT, in some patients.