Alexander, John H.

Objective To assess stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding and other outcomes, and treatment effect of apixaban versus warfarin, in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and different types of valvular heart disease (VHD), using data from the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation trial. Methods There were 14 793 patients with known VHD status, categorised as having moderate or severe mitral regurgitation (MR) (n=3382), aortic regurgitation (AR) (n=842) or aortic stenosis (AS) (n=324); patients with moderate or severe mitral stenosis were excluded from the trial. Baseline characteristics, efficacy and safety outcomes were compared between each type and no significant VHD. Treatment effect was assessed using an adjusted model. Results Patients with MR or AR had similar rates of stroke/systemic embolism and bleeding compared with patients without MR or AR, respectively. Patients with AS had significantly higher event rates (presented as rate per 100 patient-years of follow-up) of stroke/systemic embolism (3.47 vs 1.36; adjusted HR (adjHR) 2.21, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.63), death (8.30 vs 3.53; adjHR 1.92, 95% CI 1.41 to 2.61), major bleeding (5.31 vs 2.53; adjHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.75) and intracranial bleeding (1.29 vs 0.51; adjHR 2.54, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.96) than patients without AS. The superiority of apixaban over warfarin on stroke/systemic embolism was similar in patients with versus without MR (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.04 vs HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.00; interaction P value 0.52), with versus without AR (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.20 vs HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.96; interaction P value 0.52), and with versus without AS (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.17 to 1.13 vs HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.97; interaction P value 0.19). For each of the primary and secondary efficacy and safety outcomes, there was no evidence of a different effect of apixaban over warfarin in patients with any VHD subcategory. Conclusions In anticoagulated patients with AF, AS is associated with a higher risk of stroke/systemic embolism, bleeding and death. The efficacy and safety benefits of apixaban compared with warfarin were consistent, regardless of presence of MR, AR or AS. Clinical trial registration ARISTOTLE clinical trial number NCT00412984.

Background and Purpose— Few data exist on the long-term outcomes of patients with spontaneous echo contrast (SEC), left atrial/left atrial appendage (LA/LAA) thrombus, and complex aortic plaque (CAP), in patients with atrial fibrillation receiving oral anticoagulation. We explored the relationship between these 3 echocardiographic findings and clinical outcomes, and the comparative efficacy and safety of apixaban and warfarin for each finding. Methods— Patients from the ARISTOTLE trial (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) with SEC, LA/LAA thrombus, or CAP diagnosed by either transthoracic or transesophageal echocardiography were compared with patients with none of these findings on transesophageal echocardiography. Results— A total of 1251 patients were included: 217 had SEC, 127 had LA/LAA thrombus, 241 had CAP, and 746 had none. The rates of stroke/systemic embolism were not significantly different among patients with and without these echocardiographic findings (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.25–3.60 for SEC; hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.23–6.86 for LA/LAA thrombus; hazard ratio, 2.21; 95% confidence interval, 0.71–6.85 for CAP). Rates of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death were also not different between patients with and without these findings. For patients with either SEC or CAP, there was no evidence of a differential effect of apixaban over warfarin. For patients with LA/LAA thrombus, there was also no significant interaction, with the exception of all-cause death and any bleeding where there was a greater benefit of apixaban compared with warfarin among patients with no LA/LAA thrombus. Conclusions— In anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation and risk factors for stroke, echocardiographic findings do not seem to add to the risk of thromboembolic events. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00412984.

Background Cardiac biomarkers are independent risk markers in atrial fibrillation, and the novel biomarker–based ABC stroke score (age, biomarkers, and clinical history of prior stroke) was recently shown to improve the prediction of stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. Our aim was to investigate the short‐term variability of the cardiac biomarkers and evaluate whether the ABC stroke risk score provides a stable short‐term risk estimate. Methods and Results According to the study protocol, samples were obtained at entry and also at 2 months in 4796 patients with atrial fibrillation followed for a median of 1.8 years in the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) trial. Cardiac troponin I, cardiac troponin T, and N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide were measured with high‐sensitivity immunoassays. Associations with outcomes were evaluated by Cox regression. C indices and calibration plots were used to evaluate the ABC stroke score at 2 months. The average changes in biomarker levels during 2 months were small (median change cardiac troponin T +2.8%, troponin I +2.0%, and N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide +13.5%) and within‐subject correlation was high (all ≥0.82). Repeated measurement of cardiac biomarkers provided some incremental prognostic value for mortality but not for stroke when combined with clinical risk factors and baseline levels of the biomarkers. Based on 8702 person‐years of follow‐up and 96 stroke/systemic embolic events, the ABC stroke score at 2 months achieved a similar C index of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65–0.76) as compared with 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65–0.75) at baseline. The ABC stroke score remained well calibrated using predefined risk classes. Conclusions In patients with stable atrial fibrillation, the variability of the cardiac biomarkers and the biomarker‐based ABC stroke score during 2 months are small. The prognostic information by the ABC stroke score remains consistent and well calibrated with similar good predictive performance if patients are retested after 2 months. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT 00412984.

Abstract The Division of Lung Diseases of the NHLBI and the Cardiovascular Medical Education and Research Fund held a workshop to discuss how to leverage the anticipated scientific output from the recently launched “Redefining Pulmonary Hypertension through Pulmonary Vascular Disease Phenomics” (PVDOMICS) program to develop newer approaches to pulmonary vascular disease. PVDOMICS is a collaborative, protocol-driven network to analyze all patient populations with pulmonary hypertension to define novel pulmonary vascular disease (PVD) phenotypes. Stakeholders, including basic, translational, and clinical investigators; clinicians; patient advocacy organizations; regulatory agencies; and pharmaceutical industry experts, joined to discuss the application of precision medicine to PVD clinical trials. Recommendations were generated for discussion of research priorities in line with NHLBI Strategic Vision Goals that include: (1) A national effort, involving all the stakeholders, should seek to coordinate biosamples and biodata from all funded programs to a web-based repository so that information can be shared and correlated with other research projects. Example programs sponsored by NHLBI include PVDOMICS, Pulmonary Hypertension Breakthrough Initiative, the National Biological Sample and Data Repository for PAH, and the National Precision Medicine Initiative. (2) A task force to develop a master clinical trials protocol for PVD to apply precision medicine principles to future clinical trials. Specific features include: (a) adoption of smaller clinical trials that incorporate biomarker-guided enrichment strategies, using adaptive and innovative statistical designs; and (b) development of newer endpoints that reflect well-defined and clinically meaningful changes. (3) Development of updated and systematic variables in imaging, hemodynamic, cellular, genomic, and metabolic tests that will help precisely identify individual and shared features of PVD and serve as the basis of novel phenotypes for therapeutic interventions.

Objective Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a risk factor for stroke and mortality and the prothrombotic state has been linked to inflammation. In this study we evaluated the relationship between inflammatory biomarkers at baseline and future risk of cardiovascular events in the Apixaban for Reduction In Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial. Methods The ARISTOTLE trial randomised 18 201 patients with AF to apixaban or warfarin. Interleukin 6 (IL-6) and C reactive protein (CRP) were analysed in plasma obtained at randomisation from 14 954 participants, and median follow-up was 1.9 years. Association between quartile groups of IL-6 and CRP and outcomes were analysed by Cox regression adjusted for clinical risk factors and other cardiovascular biomarkers (NT-proBNP, troponin, GDF-15, cystatin C). Results The IL-6 median level was 2.3 ng/L (IQR 1.5–3.9), median CRP level was 2.2 mg/L (1.0–4.8). IL-6 and CRP were significantly associated with all-cause mortality independent of clinical risk factors and other biomarkers (HR (95% CI) 1.93 (1.57 to 2.37) and 1.49 (1.24 to 1.79), respectively, Q4 vs Q1). IL-6 was associated with myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, and major bleeding beyond clinical risk factors but not in the presence of cardiovascular biomarkers (NT-proBNP, troponin, GDF-15, cystatin C). Neither inflammatory biomarker was associated with stroke/systemic embolism. Risk prediction for stroke, death and major bleeding was not improved by IL-6 or CRP when added to clinical risk factors and the other cardiovascular biomarkers (NT-proBNP, troponin, GDF-15, cystatin C). Conclusions In patients with AF on anticoagulation, after accounting for clinical risk factors and other biomarkers, biomarkers of inflammation were significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality. However, there were no associations with the risk of stroke or major bleeding. Trial registration number ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00412984 post-results.

Background Patients with atrial fibrillation ( AF ) and hypertension are at high risk for stroke. Previous studies have shown elevated risk of stroke in patients with AF who have a history of hypertension (regardless of blood pressure [ BP ] control) and in patients with elevated BP . We assessed the association of hypertension and BP control on clinical outcomes. Methods and Results In ARISTOTLE (n=18 201), BP was evaluated as history of hypertension requiring treatment and elevated BP (systolic ≥140 and/or diastolic ≥90 mm Hg) at study entry and any point during the trial. Hazard ratios ( HR s) were derived from Cox proportional hazards models including BP as a time‐dependent covariate. A total of 15 916 (87.5%) patients had a history of hypertension requiring treatment. In patients with elevated BP measurement at any point during the trial, the rate of stroke or systemic embolism was significantly higher ( HR , 1.53; 95% confidence interval [ CI ], 1.25–1.86), as was hemorrhagic stroke ( HR 1.85; 95% CI , 1.26–2.72) and ischemic stroke ( HR , 1.50; 95% CI , 1.18–1.90). Rates of major bleeding were lower in patients with a history of hypertension ( HR , 0.80; 95% CI , 0.66–0.98) and nonsignificantly lower in patients with elevated BP at study entry ( HR , 0.89; 95% CI , 0.77–1.03). The benefit of apixaban versus warfarin on preventing stroke or systemic embolism was consistent among patients with and without a history of hypertension ( P interaction=0.27), BP control at baseline ( P interaction=0.43), and BP control during the trial ( P interaction=0.97). Conclusions High BP measurement at any point during the trial was independently associated with a substantially higher risk of stroke or systemic embolism. These results strongly support efforts to treat elevated BP as an important strategy to optimally lower risk of stroke in patients with AF . Clinical Trial Registration URL : https://ClinicalTrials.gov/ . Unique identifier: NCT 00412984.

Background— Apixaban is approved for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. However, the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial included a substantial number of patients with valvular heart disease and only excluded patients with clinically significant mitral stenosis or mechanical prosthetic heart valves. Methods and Results— We compared the effect of apixaban and warfarin on rates of stroke or systemic embolism, major bleeding, and death in patients with and without moderate or severe valvular heart disease using Cox proportional hazards modeling. Of the 18 201 patients enrolled in ARISTOTLE, 4808 (26.4%) had a history of moderate or severe valvular heart disease or previous valve surgery. Patients with valvular heart disease had higher rates of stroke or systemic embolism and bleeding than patients without valvular heart disease. There was no evidence of a differential effect of apixaban over warfarin in patients with and without valvular heart disease in reducing stroke and systemic embolism (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51–0.97 and HR, 0.84; 95%, CI 0.67–1.04; interaction P =0.38), causing less major bleeding (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.61–1.04 and HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.55–0.77; interaction P =0.23), and reducing mortality (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.84–1.22 and HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.73–0.96; interaction P =0.10). Conclusions— More than a quarter of the patients in ARISTOTLE with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation had moderate or severe valvular heart disease. There was no evidence of a differential effect of apixaban over warfarin in reducing stroke or systemic embolism, causing less bleeding, and reducing death in patients with and without valvular heart disease. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00412984.

Abstract BACKGROUND Although cardiac troponin is associated with outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF), the complementary prognostic information provided by cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and cTnT is unknown. This study investigated the distribution, determinants, and prognostic value of cTnI and cTnT concentrations in patients with AF. METHODS Samples were collected. At the time of randomization, we analyzed cTnI and cTnT concentrations of 14806 AF patients in the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial using high-sensitivity assays. Correlations (Spearman), determinants (multivariable linear regression), and outcomes (adjusted Cox models and c-statistics) were investigated. RESULTS Concentrations of cTnI and cTnT were correlated (r = 0.70) and measurable in most participants [cTnI 98.5% (median 5.4 ng/L, ≥99th percentile in 9.2%) and cTnT 93.5% (median 10.9 ng/L, ≥99th percentile in 34.4%)]. Renal impairment was the most important factor affecting the concentrations of both troponins. cTnI increase was more associated with heart failure, vascular disease, and persistent/permanent AF, and cTnT with age, male sex, and diabetes. Over a median 1.9 years of follow-up, patients with both troponins above the median had significantly higher risk for stroke/systemic embolism [hazard ratio (HR) 1.72 (95% CI 1.31–2.27)], cardiac death [3.14 (2.35–4.20)], and myocardial infarction [2.99 (1.78–5.03)] than those with both troponins below median (all P < 0.005). Intermediate risks were observed when only 1 troponin was above the median. When combined with clinical information, each marker provided similar prognostication and had comparable c-index. CONCLUSIONS cTnI and cTnT concentrations are moderately correlated and measurable in plasma of most AF patients. The risk of stroke and cardiovascular events is highest when both troponins are above median concentrations. Each troponin provides comparable prognostic information when combined with clinical risk factors. ClinicalTrials.gov/NCT00412984

Background— We examined the risk of stroke or systemic embolism (SSE) conferred by heart failure (HF) and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) in the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation Trial (ARISTOTLE), as well as the effect of apixaban versus warfarin. Methods and Results— The risk of a number of outcomes, including the composite of SSE or death (to take account of competing risks) and composite of SSE, major bleeding, or death (net clinical benefit) were calculated in 3 patient groups: (1) no HF/no LVSD (n=8728), (2) HF/no LVSD (n=3207), and (3) LVSD with/without symptomatic HF (n=2736). The rate of both outcomes was highest in patients with LVSD (SSE or death 8.06; SSE, major bleeding, or death 10.46 per 100 patient-years), intermediate for HF but preserved LV systolic function (5.32; 7.24), and lowest in patients without HF or LVSD (1.54; 5.27); each comparison P <0.0001. Each outcome was less frequent in patients treated with apixaban: in all ARISTOTLE patients, the apixaban/warfarin hazard ratio for SSE or death was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81–0.98; P =0.02); for SSE, major bleed, or death it was 0.85 (0.78–0.92; P <0.001). There was no heterogeneity of treatment effect across the 3 groups. Conclusions— Patients with LVSD (with/without HF) had a higher risk of SSE or death (but similar rate of SSE) compared with patients with HF but preserved LV systolic function; both had a greater risk than patients without either HF or LVSD. Apixaban reduced the risk of both outcomes more than warfarin in all 3 patient groups. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00412984.