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Hirst, Gillian L

0000-0002-4502-0035

Mayo Clinic

Department of Surgery, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA.

Citations 21

Association of Event-Free and Distant Recurrence–Free Survival With Individual-Level Pathologic Complete Response in Neoadjuvant Treatment of Stages 2 and 3 Breast Cancer

JAMA Oncology | July 23, 2020 | Volume: 6 | Issue: 9 | Pages: 1355

10.1001/jamaoncol.2020.2535 | PMID 32701140

Abstract P4-10-02: HER2 signaling, ER, and proliferation biomarkers predict response to multiple HER2-targeted agents/combinations plus standard neoadjuvant therapy in the I-SPY 2 trial

Cancer Research | March 26, 2020 | Volume: 80 | Issue: 4_Supplement | Pages: P4-10-02-P4-10-02

10.1158/1538-7445.sabcs19-p4-10-02

Abstract Background: A variety of investigational HER2-inhibitor agents/combinations have been tested in I-SPY 2, including neratinib (N), TDM1 combined with pertuzumab (P) (TDM1/P), and trastuzumab (H) combined with pertuzumab (H/P; prior to this combination becoming standard of care), all with trastuzumab as control (Ctr). All three experimental arms graduated, showing improved efficacy over control in one or more receptor subsets (HR+HER2+, HR-HER2+, or/and HER2+). Here we assess 10 biomarkers in the HER2, ER/PR, and proliferation pathways on multiple levels of resolution (expression, protein, phospho-protein) as predictors of response in these four arms, hypothesizing that highly HER2-activated, proliferative tumors may be more sensitive to HER2-inhibition than those that are more luminal and quiescent. Methods: 192 HER2+ patients were considered in this analysis: (31 Ctr, 65 N, 52 TDM1/P, and 44 H/P). 10 biomarkers relating to HER2, ER, or proliferation were evaluated from pre-treatment biopsies: HER2 IHC (n=145), 3 expression signatures (n=192), BluePrint subtype (n=192), and 5 protein/phospho-protein analytes by RPPA (n=175). Each biomarker was tested for association with pCR in the whole population and within each arm using a logistic model. This analysis was adjusted for HR status and treatment arm as covariates, and performed within receptor subtypes. This analysis does not adjust for multiplicities of other biomarkers. Results: In the population as a whole, HER2 and HER2-signaling biomarkers, evaluated at multiple levels of resolution: IHC, total-/phospho-protein by RPPA, and mRNA (HER2 amplicon module) - are highly correlated (rho=0.8 [0.65-0.92]). Higher HER2 levels and activity are associated with response: HER2 IHC 3+ status (LR p=0.00032), total quantitative ERBB2 protein by RPPA (LR p=5.4E-09), ERBB2 activation levels (LR p=6.58E-06 (pERBB2 (Y1248)) and 9.95E-06 (pEGFR Y1173)), and the ERBB2 amplicon expression signature (LR p=2.38E-08). In contrast, higher average ER/PR expression associates with non-response to HER2-targeted therapy (LR p=4.28E-08). Both HER2 and ER/PR signaling phenotypes are captured by BluePrint subtyping; and consistent with the individual pathway markers, tumors classified Luminal-type had a lower pCR rate relative to those classified as Her2-type (or Basal-type) (LR p=4.84E-11). These associations all retain significance in a model adjusting for HR status and treatment arm, and in the HR+HER2+ subset. In addition, we quantitatively assessed proliferation markers at the total protein (RPPA: Ki67), phospho-protein (pAURKA) and mRNA (proliferation signature Module11_Prolif) levels. All three proliferation biomarkers predict response overall; but this association is strongest within the HR+HER2+ subset (LR p=0.0012 (Module11_prolif), 0.0036 (pAURK), and 0.045 (Ki67)). None of the biomarkers tested were associated with response in the HR-HER2+ subset. Numbers are small within individual arms. Within the HR+HER2+ subtype, higher HER2 and lower ER/PR is observed in responders in all experimental arms; but the proliferation markers Module11_Prolif (LR p=0.0031) and Ki67 total protein (LR p=0.0029) are associated with response to TDM1/P but not H/P or N. Conclusion: High HER2 signaling at the expression, protein, and phospho-protein levels, and low ER signaling, all predict response to HER2-inhibition across treatment arms. Proliferation markers may be useful for prioritizing therapies in the HR+HER2+ subset. Citation Format: Denise M Wolf, Christina Yau, Julia Wulfkuhle, Lamorna Brown-Swigart, Smita M. Asare, Gillian L. Hirst, Laura Sit, Jane Perlmutter, I-SPY 2 TRIAL Consortium, Minetta Liu, John Park, Angela DeMichele, Douglas Yee, Don Berry, Laura Esserman, Emanuel Petricoin, Laura van t' Veer. HER2 signaling, ER, and proliferation biomarkers predict response to multiple HER2-targeted agents/combinations plus standard neoadjuvant therapy in the I-SPY 2 trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-10-02.
Abstract P5-01-04: Personalized monitoring of circulating tumor DNA during neoadjuvant therapy in high-risk early stage breast cancer reflects response and risk of metastatic recurrence

Cancer Research | March 26, 2020 | Volume: 80 | Issue: 4_Supplement | Pages: P5-01-04-P5-01-04

10.1158/1538-7445.sabcs19-p5-01-04

Abstract Background: The detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) during neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) may serve as an early indicator of emerging resistance and disease progression. In this study, we analyzed ctDNA from high-risk early breast cancer patients who received NAT and definitive surgery in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL (NCT01042379). We hypothesized that ctDNA can serve as a biomarker of response and survival in this setting. Methods: ctDNA analysis was performed on 291 plasma samples from 84 high-risk stage II and III breast cancer patients randomized either to an investigational agent MK-2206, an AKT inhibitor, in combination with paclitaxel followed by doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (AC) (n=52)—or standard-of-care (paclitaxel followed by AC) (n=32). HER2+ patients also received trastuzumab. Serial plasma was collected at pretreatment (T0), at 3 weeks after initiation of paclitaxel treatment (T1), between paclitaxel and AC regimens (T2), and after NAT prior to surgery (T3). A personalized ctDNA test was designed to detect a set of 16 patient-specific somatic variants, initially identified from whole exome sequencing of pretreatment tumor, then tested in plasma samples. Regions containing the somatic variants were amplified from cell-free DNA using specific polymerase chain reaction primers. Amplified products were subjected to ultra-deep sequencing (mean: 94,000x) to detect somatic variants. Association between ctDNA and clinicopathologic variables was assessed using Fisher’s exact test. Association of ctDNA with response and survival was analyzed using logistic and Cox regressions, respectively. The survival endpoint of the study was distant disease-free survival. The median follow-up was 4.8 years. Results: At pretreatment (T0), 61 of the 84 (73%) patients had detectable ctDNA. Pretreatment (T0) ctDNA positivity and levels (mean mutant molecules per mL of plasma) were significantly associated with increased tumor burden (clinical T stage T3/T4), more aggressive tumor biology (higher Mammaprint scores) and subtype (HER2+ and Triple negative). CtDNA detection during NAT decreased over time (T0- 73%; T1- 35%; T2- 14%; T3- 9%). Of the 84 patients, 23 (27%) achieved pCR and all were ctDNA-negative after NAT (T3), while all 6 patients who had detectable ctDNA at T3 did not achieve pCR. Patients who cleared ctDNA early at T1 (n=27, 48% pCR rate) had significantly increased probability of achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR) compared to those who remained ctDNA-positive (n=29, 17% pCR rate; Odds ratio=4.33, Likelihood ratio p=0.012). Patients who were ctDNA-positive at T3 (n=6) had significantly increased risk of metastatic recurrence (HR 14.7; 95% CI 1.6-131.5) compared to those who achieved pCR and were ctDNA-negative (n=17). The risk of metastatic recurrence in patients who cleared ctDNA during NAT was not significantly different from those who were negative at T0 and remained negative by T3 (hazard ratio, HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 0.22-20.2). Interestingly, patients who were ctDNA-negative (n=37) but failed to achieve pCR had similar risk of metastatic recurrence with those who achieved pCR (HR 1.4; 95% CI 0.15-13.5). Conclusions: Early clearance of ctDNA during NAT was significantly associated with increased likelihood of achieving pCR. Residual ctDNA after NAT was a significant predictor of metastatic recurrence, while clearance of ctDNA at any point during NAT was associated with improved outcomes. Taken together, personalized monitoring of ctDNA during NAT may aid in real-time assessment of treatment response and help fine-tune pCR as a surrogate endpoint of survival. Validation studies in a larger cohort are warranted. Citation Format: Mark Jesus M Magbanua, Lamorna Brown-Swigart, Gillian Hirst, Christina Yau, Denise Wolf, Hsin-Ta Wu, Antony Tin, Svetlana Shchegrova, Himanshu Sethi, Raheleh Salari, Alexey Aleshin, Maggie Louie, Bernhard Zimmermann, Angela DeMichele, Minetta Liu, Amy Delson, Amy Jo Chien, Smita Asare, Laura Esserman, I-SPY 2 TRIAL Consortium, Laura van't Veer. Personalized monitoring of circulating tumor DNA during neoadjuvant therapy in high-risk early stage breast cancer reflects response and risk of metastatic recurrence [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2019 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2019 Dec 10-14; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-01-04.
Effect of Pembrolizumab Plus Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy on Pathologic Complete Response in Women With Early-Stage Breast Cancer

JAMA Oncology | February 13, 2020 | Volume: 6 | Issue: 5 | Pages: 676

10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.6650 | PMID 32053137

MK-2206 and Standard Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Improves Response in Patients With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2–Positive and/or Hormone Receptor–Negative Breast Cancers in the I-SPY 2 Trial

Journal of Clinical Oncology | February 7, 2020 | Volume: 38 | Issue: 10 | Pages: 1059-1069

10.1200/jco.19.01027 | PMID 32031889

PURPOSEThe phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/Akt/mammalian target of rapamycin is a key pathway of survival and therapeutic resistance in breast cancer. We evaluated the pan-Akt inhibitor MK-2206 in combination with standard therapy in patients with high-risk early-stage breast cancer.PATIENTS AND METHODSI-SPY 2 is a multicenter, phase II, open-label, adaptively randomized neoadjuvant platform trial that screens experimental therapies and efficiently identifies potential predictive biomarker signatures. Patients are categorized by human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), hormone receptor (HR), and MammaPrint statuses in a 2 × 2 × 2 layout. Patients within each of these 8 biomarker subtypes are adaptively randomly assigned to one of several experimental therapies, including MK-2206, or control. Therapies are evaluated for 10 biomarker signatures, each of which is a combination of these subtypes. The primary end point is pathologic complete response (pCR). A therapy graduates with one or more of these signatures if and when it has an 85% Bayesian predictive probability of success in a hypothetical phase III trial, adjusting for biomarker covariates. Patients in the current report received standard taxane- and anthracycline-based neoadjuvant therapy without (control) or with oral MK-2206 135 mg/week.RESULTSMK-2206 graduated with 94 patients and 57 concurrently randomly assigned controls in 3 graduation signatures: HR-negative/HER2-positive, HR-negative, and HER2-positive. Respective Bayesian mean covariate-adjusted pCR rates and percentage probability that MK-2206 is superior to control were 0.48:0.29 (97%), 0.62:0.36 (99%), and 0.46:0.26 (94%). In exploratory analyses, MK-2206 evinced a numerical improvement in event-free survival in its graduating signatures. The most significant grade 3-4 toxicity was rash (14% maculopapular, 8.6% acneiform).CONCLUSIONThe Akt inhibitor MK-2206 combined with standard neoadjuvant therapy resulted in higher estimated pCR rates in HR-negative and HER2-positive breast cancer. Although MK-2206 is not being further developed at this time, this class of agents remains of clinical interest.
Abstract CT003: Analysis of immune cell infiltrates as predictors of response to the checkpoint inhibitor pembrolizumab in the neoadjuvant I-SPY 2 TRIAL

Cancer Research | August 7, 2019 | Volume: 79 | Issue: 13_Supplement | Pages: CT003-CT003

10.1158/1538-7445.am2019-ct003

Abstract Background: Pembrolizumab (Pembro), an anti-PD-1 immune checkpoint inhibitor, has been approved for the treatment of a variety of cancers. Pembro was recently evaluated in HER2- breast cancer patients in the neoadjuvant I-SPY 2 TRIAL and graduated in the triple negative (TN), HR+HER2-, and HER2- signatures. TN breast cancers tend to have high numbers of immune infiltrates, including T cells and tumor associated macrophages (TAMs). We utilized multiplex multispectral imaging to evaluate the presence and spatial proximity of various immune cell populations as specific predictors of response to Pembro. Methods: Pre-treatment biopsies were available from 54 patients. FFPE sections were immunostained using Opal fluorescence reagent kits on a fully automated Ventana Discovery platform and imaged with a Vectra automated imaging system. Image analyses were performed with a variety of software packages. Immune biomarkers included CD3, CD8, FoxP3, CD68, PD-1, PD-L1, and cytokeratins. Cell densities were determined per area of tissue. Spatial analyses were performed to quantitate proximity of cell types. We used logistic regression with the likelihood ratio test to evaluate associations between pathologic complete response (pCR) with immune cell counts, ratios, and spatial proximity measurements. This analysis was also performed adjusting for HR status, and within receptor subsets, sample size permitting. Our statistics are descriptive rather than inferential and do not adjust for multiple hypothesis testing or multiplicities of other biomarkers outside this study. Results: Densities of CD3+ T cells ranged from 193-5155 cells/mm2, with CD8+ cytotoxic T cells (Tc) ranging from 103 to 3774 cells/mm2 and FoxP3+ Tregs from 0-416 cells/mm2. Densities of PD-1+ T cells and PD-1+ Tc cells ranged from 0-1341 cells/mm2 and 0-698 cells/mm2, respectively. Macrophage cell densities ranged from 84-2644 cells/mm2. PD-L1+ tumor cell densities ranged from 0-2981 cells/mm2. High PD-L1 expression (>=10% of tumor cells positive for PD-L1) was observed in 12% of the cases. Overall T cell density was positively associated with pathological complete response (pCR), as were Treg cell density and PD-1+ T cell density. The ratio of macrophages to Tc cells was negatively associated with response. Finally, the spatial distribution of CD3+ T cells in proximity to cancer cells correlated positively with pCR. Conclusion: Cell density, immune cell ratios and spatial resolution provide insight to response and resistance. We confirmed the observation that T cell density predicts pCR, but more specifically that Treg and PD1+ T cell densities increase the chance of pCR. An increase in macrophages relative to cytotoxic T cells predicts resistance. The closer the T cells are to the tumor, the better the response. These results demonstrate the utility of characterizing the immune microenvironment, in the context of therapy with immuno-oncology agents, not only to predict response, but to gain insight and learn now to potentiate agents and combinations. Citation Format: Michael J. Campbell, Christina Yau, Jennifer Bolen, Scott Vandenberg, Clifford Hoyt, Lamorna Brown-Swigart, Gillian Hirst, Rita Nanda, Minetta Liu, Smita Asare, Laura van'tVeer, Douglas Yee, Angie DeMichele, Don Berry, Laura Esserman, I SPY 2 TRIAL Investigators. Analysis of immune cell infiltrates as predictors of response to the checkpoint inhibitor pembrolizumab in the neoadjuvant I-SPY 2 TRIAL [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr CT003.
Abstract 2679: Integration of DNA repair deficiency and immune biomarkers to predict which early-stage triple-negative breast cancer patients are likely to respond to platinum-containing regimens vs. immunotherapy: The neoadjuvant I-SPY 2 trial

Cancer Research | August 7, 2019 | Volume: 79 | Issue: 13_Supplement | Pages: 2679-2679

10.1158/1538-7445.am2019-2679

Abstract Background: Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC), generally considered aggressive with few options beyond standard chemotherapy, is currently experiencing a period of optimism, with multiple trials showing increased efficacy of platinum containing regimens (with and without PARP-inhibition), and more recently, immunotherapy. In I-SPY 2, veliparib/carboplatin (VC) and the immune checkpoint inhibitor pembrolizumab (Pembro) graduated in the TN subtype. As part of the I-SPY 2 biomarker program, we previously identified the signature PARPi7, a measure of DNA repair deficiency (DRD), as predicting response to VC. As well, immune signatures, including one representing dendritic cells, predicted response to Pembro. Here we investigate the overlap between these biomarkers to identify patient subgroups more likely to respond to immunotherapy or platinum-based therapy and estimate response rates to VC and Pembro in patients positive for one, both, or neither biomarker. Methods: 153 TNBC patients (Control: 85; VC: 39; Pembro: 29) were considered in this analysis. Continuous DNA repair deficiency and immune signatures assayed at the pre-treatment time point were evaluated as published (Wolf, 2017; Danaher, 2017). To identify optimal dichotomizing thresholds, 2-fold cross-validation was repeated 500 times. Bayesian logistic regression was used to estimate pCR rates by arm for patient subsets defined by biomarker combinations. Our study is exploratory with no claims for generalizability; and this analysis does not adjust for multiplicities. Results: Using the optimal dichotomizing cutpoints, 54% of TNBC patients are classified as DRD+, and 67% Immune+. As expected, DRD+ patients have a high estimated pCR rate to VC (75%); and Immune+ patients have a high estimated pCR rate to Pembro (82%). Combining these biomarkers, 40% of TNBC are positive for both biomarkers, 40% for only one biomarker (26% Immune+/DRD-, 14% Immune-/DRD+), and 20% for neither. The Immune+/DRD+ TN subset predicted sensitive to both VC and Pembro has a higher estimated pCR rate to both VC and Pembro relative to control (estimated pCR rates: VC: 75%, Pembro: 73% vs. control: 18%). In contrast, the Immune+/DRD- group, predicted to be sensitive to Pembro, has the highest pCR rate to Pembro (VC: 48%, Pembro: 83% vs. control 21%), whereas the Immune-/DRD+ group is most responsive to VC (VC: 63%, Pembro: 41% vs. control 29%). For the 20% of Immune-/DRD- TNBC patients, their estimated response rates are lower than the biomarker-positive patients (VC: 27%, Pembro: 43% vs. control: 19%). Conclusion: Molecular phenotypes capturing immune activation and DNA repair deficiency may predict response of TNBC and help prioritize selection of platinum or immunotherapy containing regimens. Citation Format: Denise M. Wolf, Christina Yau, Julia Wulfkuhle, Emanuel Petricoin, Lamorna Brown-Swigart, Gillian Hirst, Smita Asare, I-SPY 2 Consortium, Douglas Yee, Angela DeMichele, Hope Rugo, Olufunmilayo Olopade, Rita Nanda, Minetta Liu, Laura Esserman, Laura van t' Veer. Integration of DNA repair deficiency and immune biomarkers to predict which early-stage triple-negative breast cancer patients are likely to respond to platinum-containing regimens vs. immunotherapy: The neoadjuvant I-SPY 2 trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2679.
Quantitative MHC II protein expression levels in tumor epithelium to predict response to the PD1 inhibitor pembrolizumab in the I-SPY 2 Trial.

Journal of Clinical Oncology | May 27, 2019 | Volume: 37 | Issue: 15_suppl | Pages: 2631-2631

10.1200/jco.2019.37.15_suppl.2631

2631 Background: Response to immune checkpoint inhibitors has been associated with immune activation and mutational load within a tumor. Previous results in other tumors have implicated MHC II protein tumor cell expression as a response predictor to immune checkpoint inhibitors. In the I-SPY 2 TRIAL, the anti-PD1 therapeutic antibody pembrolizumab (P) was available to HER2-negative subtypes and graduated in both the HR+/HER2- and TNBC signatures. Pre-specified biomarker analysis was performed to test tumor MHC II expression as a predictor of response to P in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL based on its central role in tumor antigen presentation. Methods: 156 patients (P: 67, controls: 89) had RPPA and pCR data. RPPA-based quantitative data for pan-MHC II protein isotypes HLA-DR/DP/DQ/DX and HLA-DR protein isotype was obtained from LCM-enriched tumor epithelium, and protein levels were assessed for association with pCR in the P and control arms separately using the Wilcoxon Rank Sum test (p < 0.05). Analysis was also performed in the HR+ and HR- subgroups. Markers were analyzed individually; p-values are descriptive and were not corrected for multiple comparisons. Results: Across all P- treated patients, the HLA class II molecules –DR and -DR/DP/DQ/DX had a positive association with response to P (p = 0.014 and p = 0.001). Expression of HLA-DR/DP/DQ/DX also had a positive association with response to P in HR+ tumors. Neither of these associations were seen in the control arm samples. Conclusions: The observation of elevation of MHC II protein expression in HER2- responding patients treated with P suggests that activation of antigen peptide exchange facilitated by these molecules in T and B cells may enhance response to P treatment.
Abstract PD2-01: Personalized serial circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis in high-risk early stage breast cancer patients to monitor and predict response to neoadjuvant therapy and outcome in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL

Cancer Research | May 11, 2019 | Volume: 79 | Issue: 4_Supplement | Pages: PD2-01-PD2-01

10.1158/1538-7445.sabcs18-pd2-01

Abstract ctDNA analysis offers a non-invasive approach for monitoring response and resistance to treatment. Serial ctDNA testing during neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) may provide early indicators of emerging resistance and disease progression. In this study, we analyzed ctDNA from high-risk early breast cancer patients who received NAT and definitive surgery in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL (NCT01042379). We hypothesize that (1) assessment of ctDNA levels early in treatment will improve the performance of molecular and imaging-based predictors of pathologic complete response (pCR) to NAT; and (2) levels of ctDNA after NAT are associated with residual cancer burden and recurrence [distant recurrence free survival (DRFS)]. Methods: ctDNA analysis was performed in 84 high-risk stage II and III breast cancer patients randomized to neoadjuvant investigational agent (n=52), AKT inhibitor MK-2206 (M) in combination with paclitaxel (T) followed by doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (AC) (M+T-&gt;AC), or standard-of-care (T-&gt;AC) (n=32). HER2+ patients also received trastuzumab (H). Serial plasma was collected before NAT (T0), early treatment (3 weeks, T1), between regimens (12 weeks, T2), and after NAT prior to surgery (T3). Mutational profiles derived from pretreatment tumor biopsy and normal matched DNA whole exome sequencing were used to design personalized assays targeting 16 patient-specific somatic variants to detect ctDNA in serial plasma. Results: Of the 84 patients in this study, 43% were HR-/HER2- (TNBC), 35% HR+/HER2-, and 23% HER2+. In total, 74% (61 of 83), 35% (28 of 79), 14% (9 of 65), and 8% (5 of 61) were positive for ctDNA at timepoints T0, T1, T2, and T3, respectively. At T0, ctDNA positivity and levels (average number of mutant molecules detected per mL) were significantly associated with increased tumor burden (by clinical and MRI examination), more aggressive tumor biology (as reflected in higher Mammaprint scores and grade) and subtype (HER2+ and TNBC). Twenty-seven percent (27%) of the 84 patients achieved a pCR and all patients who were ctDNA-positive at T3 (n=5) did not achieve a pCR. Currently, data are being collected to: (1) assess the relationship of ctDNA and MRI imaging in predicting tumor response to therapy; (2) examine the relationship of ctDNA levels before and after NAT with 3-year DRFS and event-free survival (EFS). The results of these analyses will be presented at the SABCS 2018 meeting. Conclusions: Our study provides a platform to evaluate the clinical significance of ctDNA for serial monitoring of response to NAT. Accurate and early response prediction by highly sensitive ctDNA analysis can facilitate a timely and judicious change in treatment to improve patients' chances of achieving a pCR. Finally, personalized ctDNA testing may complement imaging and pathologic evaluation of tumor response to fine-tune pCR as a surrogate endpoint for improved DRFS and EFS. Citation Format: Magbanua MJM, Brown-Swigart L, Hirst GL, Yau C, Wolf D, Ma AA, Bergin E, Venters S, Sethi H, Wu H-T, Salari R, Tin T, Sawyer S, Louie M, Zimmermann B, Lin C-HJ, Keats J, Liang WS, Cuyugan L, Enriquez D, Tripathy D, Chien AJ, Forero A, DeMichele A, Liu M, Delson AL, Asare S, Esserman L, van't Veer L, I-SPY 2 Consortium. Personalized serial circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis in high-risk early stage breast cancer patients to monitor and predict response to neoadjuvant therapy and outcome in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD2-01.
Abstract P2-07-03: Refining neoadjuvant predictors of three year distant metastasis free survival: Integrating volume change as measured by MRI with residual cancer burden

Cancer Research | May 11, 2019 | Volume: 79 | Issue: 4_Supplement | Pages: P2-07-03-P2-07-03

10.1158/1538-7445.sabcs18-p2-07-03

Abstract Background: Patients achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR) following neoadjuvant therapy have significantly improved event-free survival relative to those who do not; and pCR is an FDA-accepted endpoint to support accelerated approval of novel agents/combinations in the neoadjuvant treatment of high risk early stage breast cancer. Previous studies have shown that recurrence risk increased with increasing burden of residual disease (as assessed by the RCB index). As well, these studies suggest that patients with minimum residual disease (RCB-I class) also have favorable outcomes (comparable to those achieving a pCR) within high risk tumor subtypes. In this study, we assess whether integrating RCB with MRI functional tumor volume (FTV), which in itself is prognostic, can improve prediction of distant recurrence free survival (DRFS); and identify a subset of patients with minimal residual disease with comparable DRFS as those who achieved a pCR. Imaging tools can then be used to identify the subset that will do well early and guide the timing of surgical therapy. Method: We performed a pooled analysis of 596 patients from the I-SPY2 TRIAL with RCB, pre-surgical MRI FTV data and known follow-up (median 2.5 years). We first assessed whether FTV predicts residual disease (pCR or pCR/RCB-I) using ROC analysis. We applied a power transformation to normalize the pre-surgical FTV distribution; and assessed its association with DRFS using a bi-variate Cox proportional hazard model adjusting for HR/HER2 subtype. We also fitted a bivariate Cox model of RCB index adjusting for subtype; and assessed whether adding pre-surgical FTV to this model further improves association with DRFS using a likelihood ratio (LR) test. For the Cox modeling, penalized splines approximation of the transformed FTV and RCB index with 2 degrees of freedom was used to allow for non-linear effects of FTV and RCB on DRFS. Result: Pre-surgical MRI FTV is significantly associated with DRFS (Wald p&lt;0.00001), and more effective at predicting pCR/RCB-I than predicting pCR alone (AUC: 0.72 vs. 0.65). Larger pre-surgical FTV remains associated with worse DRFS adjusting for subtype (Wald p &lt;0.00001). The RCB index is also significantly associated with DRFS adjusting for subtype (Wald p&lt;0.00001). Adding FTV to a model containing RCB and subtype further improves association with DRFS (LR p=0.0007). RCB-I patients have excellent DRFS (94% at 3 years compared to 95% in the pCR group). Efforts are underway to identify an optimal threshold for dichotomizing pre-surgical FTV and FTV change measures for use in combination with pCR/RCB-I class to generate integrated RCB (iRCB) groups as a composite predictor of DRFS. Conclusion: Pre-surgical MRI FTV is effective at predicting minimal residual disease (RCB0/I) in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL. Despite the association between FTV and RCB, FTV appears to provide independent added prognostic value (to RCB and subtype), suggesting that integrating MRI volume measures and RCB into a composite predictor may improve DRFS prediction. Citation Format: Hylton NM, Symmans WF, Yau C, Li W, Hatzis C, Isaacs C, Albain KS, Chen Y-Y, Krings G, Wei S, Harada S, Datnow B, Fadare O, Klein M, Pambuccian S, Chen B, Adamson K, Sams S, Mhawech-Fauceglia P, Magliocco A, Feldman M, Rendi M, Sattar H, Zeck J, Ocal I, Tawfik O, Grasso LeBeau L, Sahoo S, Vinh T, Yang S, Adams A, Chien AJ, Ferero-Torres A, Stringer-Reasor E, Wallace A, Boughey JC, Ellis ED, Elias AD, Lang JE, Lu J, Han HS, Clark AS, Korde L, Nanda R, Northfelt DW, Khan QJ, Viscusi RK, Euhus DM, Edmiston KK, Chui SY, Kemmer K, Wood WC, Park JW, Liu MC, Olopade O, Tripathy D, Moulder SL, Rugo HS, Schwab R, Lo S, Helsten T, Beckwith H, Haugen PK, van't Veer LJ, Perlmutter J, Melisko ME, Wilson A, Peterson G, Asare AL, Buxton MB, Paoloni M, Clennell JL, Hirst GL, Singhrao R, Steeg K, Matthews JB, Sanil A, Berry SM, Abe H, Wolverton D, Crane EP, Ward KA, Nelson M, Niell BL, Oh K, Brandt KR, Bang DH, Ojeda-Fournier H, Eghtedari M, Sheth PA, Bernreuter WK, Umphrey H, Rosen MA, Dogan B, Yang W, Joe B, I-SPY 2 TRIAL Consortium, Yee D, Pusztai L, DeMichele A, Asare SM, Berry DA, Esserman LJ. Refining neoadjuvant predictors of three year distant metastasis free survival: Integrating volume change as measured by MRI with residual cancer burden [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-07-03.