Evens, Andrew M

Background: Chemotherapy in combination with radiotherapy (RT) is the standard for early-stage (ES) Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL). Despite high cure rates (12-year overall survival (OS) >93%), there is room to improve short and long-term outcomes for children and adults with ES cHL. Incorporation of immunotherapy (IO) into front line treatment of ES cHL is an opportunity to both improve progression-free survival (PFS) and maintain OS, while minimizing long-term morbidity and mortality by reducing exposure to RT and high-dose chemotherapy. Study Design and Methods: HL leaders of the NCTN groups, expert HL researchers and physicians, and representatives from the Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program (CTEP) formed a working group in April 2020 with the goals of harmonizing treatment approaches for ES cHL across pediatric and adult patients and reaching consensus regarding the optimal study design for incorporating IO therapy into frontline treatment. Study champions identified from each of the North American cooperative groups [Children's Oncology Group (COG), SWOG, ECOG-ACRIN, Alliance, NRG] and experts in imaging, radiation oncology, lymphoma biology and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were included. The resulting COG-led clinical trial, AHOD2131, represents the largest ES cHL trial in the history of North American cooperative groups and the first to enroll patients across the age continuum. AHOD2131 (NCT05675410; Figure) is a randomized, phase 3 trial enrolling patients ages 5 to 60 years with newly diagnosed, previously untreated stage I and II cHL and will investigate the addition of the CD30-antibody drug conjugate brentuximab vedotin (Bv) with PD-1 blockade (nivolumab) compared to standard chemotherapy +/- RT. Since the April 2023 activation, 97 North American sites have activated the trial, and 21 participants have enrolled. Target enrollment is 1875 patients over 5 years of accrual, for an estimated 1782 eligible and evaluable patients. The primary objective is to compare the 3-year PFS of patients with ES cHL treated through a response-adapted, superiority design with either standard therapy or with an IO approach (BV + nivolumab). All patients will be stratified as favorable or unfavorable based on disease risk features at enrollment. Based on initial response assessment by PET/CT (via central review) after 2 cycles of ABVD, patients were classified to PET2 positive (SER, defined as 5 Point Score 4 or 5, ~15% of patients) and PET negative (RER). Those who are PET positive will receive involved site RT (ISRT). The SER and RER patients will be randomized to standard chemotherapy vs. IO therapy respectively. In addition to the primary outcome of PFS, there are 11 secondary and 10 exploratory aims. The secondary aims focus on OS, PFS of subgroups, and event-free survival at 12 years, physician-reported treatment-related adverse event (AE) rates, patient-reported AE using pediatric and adult versions of Patient-Reported Outcomes version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (PRO-CTCAE), and the capture of representation by self-report and the use of electronic PRO data collections. The exploratory aims include the assessment of imaging central review as compared to local institutional review and the use of convolutional neural networks through artificial-intelligence machine learning. The study will examine the effect of therapy on acute and long-term adverse effects including health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and OS for up to 12 years. The study will compare patient self-report and provider AE reports and evaluate the associations of self-reported race/ethnicity and social determinants of health (SDOH)and post-progression/post-relapse OS. AHOD2131 strengthens the effort between the North American cooperative groups to conduct collaborative clinical trials and aims to harmonize an improved standard of care for ES cHL across the age continuum.

Introduction: DH/THL also classified as high-grade B cell lymphomas (HGBCL) with MYC and BCL2 and/or BCL6 rearrangements have higher risk of progression after initial treatment and poor response to salvage therapies compared to diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL), NOS. Recently, CART cell therapy has shown encouraging responses in treatment of relapsed refractory (R/R) DLBCL. In this retrospective study, we evaluated whether survival of (R/R) DH/THL is improved in the CART era. Methods: In this multicenter retrospective study, adult pts (pts) with R/R DH/THL after anthracycline-based therapy were included. Demographic and clinical variables were obtained from electronic health records. Study objectives was overall survival (OS) at 2 year landmark. We utilized full propensity score matching to compare progression free survival (PFS) and OS of CART with 2 nd line chemoimmunotherapy. Results: 278 DH/THL pts treated between 2010-2020 were included. Median age was 63 years (range 52-74), 163 (58%) were male, 119 (43%) were classified as DLBCL and 116 (42%) as HGBCL; 40 (14%) were transformed from follicular lymphoma. 225 (82%) had advanced stage, 161 (67%) had elevated LDH, 85 (33%) had bulky disease, 74 (59%) had B symptoms. 105 (38%) pts treated for relapsed disease before 2018 were included in the pre-CART era cohort. 168 (60%) pts treated from 2018 onwards were included in the CART era cohort. 102 (60%) pts in CART cell era received CART cells, 40 (14%) received polatuzumab vedotin (pola), 10 (3.5%) received loncastuximab tesirine, tafasitamab and bispecific antibody each. Characteristics at relapse were similar in both groups. Median follow up was 8.9 (0.2-146) months. 2-year OS estimate was 36% (CI 95: 30-42%) in entire population. Patients treated in CART cell era had significantly higher OS (2 yr OS: 43% [CI 95: 35-53]) compared to pts treated in pre-CART cells era (2-year OS: 24% [CI 95: 16-34], p=0.0006) (Figure 1). In multivariable analyses, increasing age (HR = 1.02 (CI 95: 1.01, 1.04), p=0.003), extranodal disease (HR = 1.41 (CI 95: 1.00, 1.99), p<0.001), elevated LDH (HR = 1.57 (CI 95: 1.11, 2.24), p=0.01) were associated with inferior OS. Increasing time to relapse (HR = 0.98 (CI 95: 0.97, 0.99), p<0.001) was associated with superior OS. BCL6 rearrangement did not affect OS. When adjusted for these factors, treatment with CART cells was associated with higher 2 yr OS (HR = 0.33 (CI 95: 0.22, 0.49), p<0.001). Treatment with polatuzumab (HR = 1.07 (CI 95: 0.71, 1.6), p=0.07) was not significantly associated with OS in univariable analysis. 102 pts underwent CART cell therapy at any point for relapse; 94 (93%) were refractory to prior chemotherapy. 62 (60%) responded and 52 (50%) had CR after CART cells. 2-year PFS and OS after CART cell therapy were 28% (CI 95: 19-40) and 40% (CI 95: 30-53), respectively. Increasing time to CART was associated with inferior OS (HR: 1.02 (CI 95: 1.0-1.03, p=0.03) but not PFS (HR: 1.02 (CI 95: 0.99-1.04), p=0.2). 219 (79%) pts received curative intent salvage chemotherapy for 2 nd line. 2-year PFS and OS were 15% (CI 95: 11-20) and 38% (CI 95: 31-45), respectively. 21 pts received CART cell therapy for 2 nd line. 2 year PFS and OS in this small number of pts were 52% (CI 95: 35-79) and 70% (CI 95: 52-94), respectively. Due in part to the small number of pts who received CART cells in 2 nd line, we utilized full propensity score matched analysis to compare each patient in CART cell group to all possible matched controls in salvage chemotherapy group. Variables matched were age, LDH, extra nodal disease and time to relapse. In propensity score matched analysis, pts who received CART cells had significantly higher 2 year PFS (HR: 10.5 (CI 95: 3.4-17.5), p=002) and 2 year OS (HR: 7.5 (CI 95: 1.4-13), p=0.01). Conclusions: Survival of r/r DH/THL appears to have improved in the era of CART cell therapy. About 2/3 of pts refractory to chemotherapy respond to CART cells, and in multivariable analysis, receipt of CART cells was associated with improved OS. Increasing time to CART cells was associated with inferior survival. In a propensity score matched analysis utilizing full matching, CART cell therapy in 2 nd line was associated with significantly higher 2 year PFS and OS compared to curative intent salvage therapy. Other CD 19 and CD 20 targeting agents approved after CART cell therapy might contribute to favorable survival, effect of these agents could not be assessed because of small numbers.

Purpose: Improved predictive tools are desired in classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) to improve prognostication and to better risk stratify patients (pts) for clinical trials. In younger pts who tolerate intensive therapies, focus has been on limiting late treatment toxicity through risk-adapted, PET-guided treatment strategy. In older pts, acute treatment toxicities are limiting factors for optimal disease control. Due to these fundamental differences, predictive tools may perform differently in younger and older pts. In particular, tools developed in younger pts may be suboptimal in older populations and vice versa. The primary objective of this study was to assess the performance of the A-HIPI (development was limited to 18-65 years of age) against the international prognostic score (IPS) for modelling overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in younger and older pts with cHL. Methods: This study utilized data from the population-based, nationwide Danish National Lymphoma registry. Pts with advanced-stage cHL (Ann Arbor stage III-IV or IIB with extra nodal disease) were included and categorized by age in two groups: ages ≤65 years vs. >65 years. In the primary analysis, all pts regardless of therapy were included. A sensitivity analysis restricting to pts starting on BEACOPP or ABVD was performed (Only ABVD in the >65 cohort). Concordance index (C-index) and calibration were used to assess model performance and generalizability. Calibration was visualized using calibration plots and quantified by calibration in the large (CITL) and calibration slope (CS) at 5-years post diagnosis. Results: A total of 893 advanced-stage HL pts fulfilled the inclusion criteria (634 in the ≤65 cohort and 259 in the >65 cohort). The 5-year OS and PFS in the >65-year cohort were 44% (Confidence intervals (CI); 37-51%) and 35% (CI; 30-42%), respectively. Fifty-six pts in the >65 cohort were classified as low-intermediate-risk (IPS; 1-2), 128 intermediate-risk (IPS; 3-4), and 75 high-risk (IPS; 5-7). For the ≤65 cohort, the 5-year OS and PFS was 88% (CI; 85-90%) and 76% (CI; 73-80%), respectively. Twenty-three pts were classified as low-risk (IPS; 0), 244 low-intermediate-risk, 286 intermediate-risk, and 81 high-risk. The A-HIPI had a C-index of 0.74 and 0.63 for OS and PFS, respectively in the ≤65 years cohort vs. 0.65 and 0.64 for OS and PFS, respectively, in the >65 cohort. The IPS had a C-index in the ≤65 cohort of 0.66 and 0.60 for OS and PFS, respectively, vs. 0.58 and 0.59 for OS and PFS, respectively, in the >65 cohort (i.e., the IPS performed better in the ≤65 cohort in terms of OS and PFS but was inferior to the A-HIPI). When restricting to pts treated with ABVD or BEACOPP, the A-HIPI C-index in the >65 cohort (116 pts) were reduced to 0.55 for OS and 0.54 for PFS. For the ≤65 cohort (595 pts), the A-HIPI C-index was stable at 0.75 and 0.62 for OS and PFS, respectively. In terms of A-HIPI calibration in the >65 cohort, CITL and CS were -0.78 and 0.39 for OS vs. -0.98 and 0.80 for PFS. In the ≤65 cohort, CITL and CS were -0.06 and 0.99 for OS vs. 0.21 and 1.18 for PFS. Visual inspection of the calibration plot (Figure 1) for the >65 cohort showed that the A-HIPI underestimated the observed proportion for both OS and PFS (i.e., the observed events were higher than the predicted). Calibration plot for the ≤65 cohort (Figure 2) indicated that the A-HIPI accurately modelled the observed proportion for both OS and PFS (i.e., the predicted probability was consistent with the observed proportion). Conclusion: The newly developed A-HIPI was validated in a large population-based cohort of Danish pts with advanced-stage cHL. Performance of the A-HIPI was high in the ≤65 cohort and superior to the IPS for OS prediction. Calibration of A-HIPI was excellent in pts ages ≤65 years. However, A-HIPI performed significantly worse among pts >65 years and attained poor performance in pts receiving ABVD or BEACOPP, which is not surprising since patients older than 65 were not included in the development. This study emphasizes the importance of further efforts to develop or update models that apply specifically in older individuals. The inclusion of additional variables reflecting comorbidities and pts fitness into a prognostic model may be necessary to effectively deliver accurate prognoses and risk assessments for the older pt.

Background: To be useful across the broadest range of patients and clinical settings, clinical prediction models should be externally validated in different data sets and clinical settings and refined over time. In 2022, the HoLISTIC Consortium (www.hodgkinconsortium.org) developed and validated the A-HIPI model via TRIPOD guidelines for adults 18-65 with advanced stage classic Hodgkin Lymphoma (AS-HL) (Rodday et al., JCO 2023). The A-HIPI model, based on individual patient (pt) data from more than 5000 patients (pts) from North America, Europe, and Australia, predicts progression-free survival and overall survival within the first 5 years (PFS5 and OS5) based on pre-treatment pt and disease characteristics (www.qxmd.com/calculate/calculator_869/a-hipi). In collaboration with Brazilian clinical experts and researchers, we describe the performance of the A-HIPI in the Brazilian Prospective HL registry. Methods: The Brazilian Prospective HL registry (NCT02589548) was originally established in 2009 with the goal of evaluating risk factors, treatment, and disease outcomes. By 2022, 1357 pts with classic HL were registered with a median follow-up of 5 years for surviving patients (Biasoli I. HemaSphere 2022). 5-year PFS and OS were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Using the methodology for validation and calibration outlined in by Rodday et al., calculated risk scores were calculated for PFS5 and OS5. Harrell c-statistic and the Uno c-statistic were calculated to evaluate discrimination (i.e., differentiation of those at higher risk of having an event from those at lower risk) and plots of deciles of predicted vs. observed outcomes were created to assess calibration (i.e., how similar the predicted absolute risk of the model is to the true (observed) risk in an external cohort). In the primary A-HIPI analysis, laboratory values outside of permitted range were excluded and not imputed. This was checked in sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation for missing values; no substantial differences were noted. Thus, in the current validation, out-of-range lab values were excluded. There were no exclusions in the current analysis for early death, defined as deaths that occurred from the onset of first treatment until 30 days after its end. Pts with HIV were excluded from the assembled cohort. Results: 694 patients with AS-HL with the inclusion criteria of the original study were included in the present study. The median age was 30.9 years (range, 18-65) at diagnosis with 46% of the pts being female. 230 (33%) patients were classified as Stage IIB, 190 with Stage III (27.4%), and 274 (39.5%) with Stage IV. Bulky disease (>10 cm) was present in 226 patients (33%). Median hemoglobin was 11.6 g/dL (8-16.3), median albumin 3.63 g/dL (1.41-5.46), and median lymphocyte count was 1.5 x 10 3 µL (0.10-4.76). The 5-y PFS (PFS5) in the A-HIPI Brazilian validation dataset was 68.4% (95% CI: 64.7-71.9%) and the 5-y OS (OS5) was 86.0% (95% CI: 82.8-88.6).Harrell c-statistics for the A-HIPI model were 0.60 (95% CI, .56-.64) for 5-year PFS and 0.69 (95%CI, .64-.74) for 5-year OS and Uno c-statistics for the A-HIPI model were 0.63 (95% CI, .58-.68) for 5-year PFS and 0.72 (95%CI, .65-.78) for 5-year OS. Calibration plots (see figures) show the predicted A-HIPI model estimates were well calibrated with the observed outcomes in the Brazilian HL registry. Conclusions: Despite important differences between the original development cohort for A-HIPI and the Brazilian registry in patient and clinical characteristics (e.g., younger age at diagnosis, greater proportion of Stage IV disease) and the well characterized impact of income maldistribution and socio-economic status on clinical outcomes (Biasoli et al., Int J Cancer 2018), the A-HIPI clinical prediction tool performed well in the Brazilian Prospective Registry. This included evidence of adequate discrimination and calibration. Future studies are planned, including the impact of treatment selection and response, use of interim imaging, and supportive care may underscore important differences in outcomes among adults with AS-HL.

Background: There are a lack of clinical prediction tools in early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (E-HL). We developed and validated a modern-day model, known as E-HIPI, to predict progression-free survival (PFS) within the first 5 years (y) incorporating detailed individual patient (pt) data from international clinical trials and prospective registry data that were standardized, normalized & harmonized as part of the HoLISTIC Consortium (www.hodgkinconsortium.org). Methods: Model development utilized Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines (Moons, Ann Intern Med 2015) on a cohort of 3,080 newly-diagnosed E-HL pts treated on 4 seminal phase 3 clinical trials (NCIC: Meyer, NEJM 2012; RAPID: Radford, NEJM 2015; EORTC-GELA H9U: Ferme, E ur J Cancer 2017; EORTC/LYSA/FIL H10: Andre, JCO 2017). External validation was done in an independent cohort of 462 E-HL pts from a large registry (Princess Margaret, Toronto). Pts with classic HL, stage I or II disease, and ages 18-65 y were included. The primary outcome was PFS. Cox models were utilized with follow-up truncated at 5 years. Baseline predictors were: sex, stage, B symptoms, histology, number & location of nodal sites, and continuous data values of age, maximum tumor diameter (MTD), white blood cell count (WBC), lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, albumin & erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). Multiple imputation was used for missing data. To consider possible non-linear relationships for continuous variables we examined plots & cubic splines. We used backward elimination ( P<0.1) to develop the models & internal validation with 200 bootstrap samples was conducted to estimate optimism & correct for overfitting. The final prediction equations applied optimism corrections to beta coefficients & hazard ratios (HR). Sensitivity analyses included model results stratified by PET staging (vs CT) and each HL trial. The models were evaluated in the external validation cohort & compared using c-statistics. Model scores were also grouped by tertiles for visualization in Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves. Results: Median age in the development cohort was 35y; 51% were female; 81% had nodular sclerosis & 77% stage II disease; 26% had B symptoms; 32% had mediastinal bulk (≥10cm or >1/3 diameter) and the mean MTD was 6.4 cm (interquartile range (IQR), 3.9-8.2). Median follow-up was 60 months (IQR 45-75). KM estimates at 5y was 90.7% (264 events) for PFS, and 97.1% (78 events) for overall survival (OS). After backward elimination, significant variables retained were age, sex, nodal location (cervical region), MTD & albumin. Stage, ESR, or the number of nodal sites were not significant. Age was modeled with piecewise linear splines due to its non-linear relationship. See the Table for the final prediction model and optimism-corrected HRs. Optimism-corrected c-statistics in the development model was 0.63. Sensitivity analyses of stratification by type of imaging at staging or by each clinical trial demonstrated no change in model parameters or c-statistics. Most baseline characteristics and outcomes of the external validation cohort were similar besides median follow-up time (74 months, IQR 37-129). C-statistics for the E-HIPI model in external validation was 0.63. In addition, observed 5y outcomes stratified by tertile of predicted risk in the external cohort separated pts into a low & higher-risk group, which comprised 1/3 & 2/3 of pts, respectively ( Figure). Finally, model diagnostics revealed the potential for time dependency in the retained covariates. Further assessment of differential prediction between early (<2y) vs. later (2-5y) PFS events is ongoing. Conclusion: Following TRIPOD methodology, we rigorously developed and externally validated the E-HIPI among >3,500 E-HL pts.Discrete risk groups were delineated, and we identified several novel factors, including nodal location, sex & key continuous variables that predict 5y PFS. Additional model refinement is underway, including formal calibration & external validation via other HL registries (Stanford, Mayo/Iowa SPORE). A web-based calculator to simplify application of the E-HIPI will also be presented at ASH. Future planned modeling includes integration of differing treatments & response-adapted imaging via multistate modeling to enrich individualized survival estimates and simulation modeling to predict late consequences.

Abstract Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is a B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma; data indicate that blastoid and pleomorphic variants have a poor prognosis. We report characteristics and outcomes of patients with blastoid/pleomorphic variants of MCL. We retrospectively studied adults with newly diagnosed MCL treated from 2000 to 2015. Primary objectives were to describe progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Secondary objectives included characterization of patient characteristics and treatments. Of the 1029 patients with MCL studied, a total of 207 neoplasms were blastoid or pleomorphic variants. Median follow-up period was 82 months (range, 0.1-174 months); median PFS was 38 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 28-66) and OS was 68 months (95% CI, 45-96). Factors associated with PFS were receipt of consolidative autologous hematopoietic transplantation (auto-HCT; hazard ratio [HR], 0.52; 95% CI, 0.31-0.80; P < .05), MCL International Prognostic Index (MIPI) intermediate (HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.3; P < .02) and high (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.0-7.4; P < .01) scores, and complete response to induction (HR, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.17-0.51). Receipt of auto-HCT was not associated with OS (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.41-1.16; P = .16) but was associated with MIPI intermediate (HR, 5.7; 95% CI, 2.5-13.2; P < .01) and high (HR, 10.8; 95% CI, 4.7-24.9; P < .01) scores. We report outcomes in a large cohort of patients with blastoid/pleomorphic variant MCL. For eligible patients, receipt of auto-HCT after induction was associated with improved PFS but not OS. Higher MIPI score and auto-HCT ineligibility were associated with worse survival.

Abstract In the pre–novel agent era, the median postprogression overall survival (PPS) of patients with classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) who progress after autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) was 2 to 3 years. Recently, checkpoint inhibitors (CPI) and brentuximab vedotin (BV) have improved the depth and durability of response in this population. Here, we report the estimate of PPS in patients with relapsed cHL after ASCT in the era of CPI and BV. In this multicenter retrospective study of 15 participating institutions, adult patients with relapsed cHL after ASCT were included. Study objective was postprogression overall survival (PPS), defined as the time from posttransplant progression to death or last follow-up. Of 1158 patients who underwent ASCT, 367 had progressive disease. Median age was 34 years (range, 27-46) and 192 were male. Median PPS was 114.57 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 91-not achieved) or 9.5 years. In multivariate analysis, increasing age, progression within 6 months, and pre-ASCT positive positron emission tomography scan were associated with inferior PPS. When adjusted for these features, patients who received CPI, but not BV, as first treatment for post-ASCT progression had significantly higher PPS than the no CPI/no BV group (hazard ratio, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.6-7.8; P = .001). Receipt of allogeneic SCT (Allo-SCT) did not improve PPS. In the era of novel agents, progressive cHL after ASCT had long survival that compares favorably with previous reports. Patients who receive CPI as first treatment for progression had higher PPS. Receipt to Allo-SCT was not associated with PPS in this population.

Abstract In the pivotal study ECHELON-1, brentuximab vedotin (BV), doxorubicin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (A + AVD) demonstrated superior efficacy compared with bleomycin + AVD for the treatment of advanced-stage classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL). However, there are minimal available data regarding the frequency of dose reductions or omission of BV during curative therapy and the potential impact on patient outcomes. In a real-world analysis, we retrospectively reviewed the characteristics and outcomes of 179 patients with stage III or IV cHL treated with frontline A + AVD from January 2010 to April 2022. Treatment consisted of up to 1.2 mg/kg of BV and standard dose AVD IV on days 1 and 15 of each 28-day cycle for up to 6 cycles. At the time of treatment, the median patient age was 37 years, and a high-risk International Prognostic Score was observed in 46% of patients. Overall, 91% of patients received 6 cycles of AVD; 55% of patients did not receive the intended cumulative dose of BV (CDB); 28% of patients received two-thirds or less than the planned CDB. At a median follow-up time of 27.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.8-29), the median progression-free survival (PFS) was not reached, and the 12-month PFS was 90.3% (95% CI, 85.9-95.0). The impact of CDB on PFS was not significant (P = .15), nor was high CDB significantly associated with increased adverse events. In real-world experience, A + AVD is a highly effective treatment for patients with advanced-stage cHL, including for patients with prominent dose reductions of BV.

Abstract In this multi-institutional retrospective study, we examined the characteristics and outcomes of 160 patients with high-grade B-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified (HGBL-NOS)—a rare category defined by high-grade morphologic features and lack of MYC rearrangements with BCL2 and/or BCL6 rearrangements ("double hit"). Our results show that HGBL-NOS tumors are heterogeneous: 83% of patients had a germinal center B-cell immunophenotype, 37% a dual-expressor immunophenotype (MYC and BCL2 expression), 28% MYC rearrangement, 13% BCL2 rearrangement, and 11% BCL6 rearrangement. Most patients presented with stage IV disease, a high serum lactate dehydrogenase, and other high-risk clinical factors. Most frequent first-line regimens included dose-adjusted cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and etoposide, with rituximab and prednisone (DA-EPOCH-R; 43%); rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP; 33%); or other intensive chemotherapy programs. We found no significant differences in the rates of complete response (CR), progression-free survival (PFS), or overall survival (OS) between these chemotherapy regimens. CR was attained by 69% of patients. PFS at 2 years was 55.2% and OS was 68.1%. In a multivariable model, the main prognostic factors for PFS and OS were poor performance status, lactate dehydrogenase >3 × upper limit of normal, and a dual-expressor immunophenotype. Age >60 years or presence of MYC rearrangement were not prognostic, but patients with TP53 alterations had a dismal PFS. Presence of MYC rearrangement was not predictive of better PFS in patients treated with DA-EPOCH-R vs R-CHOP. Improvements in the diagnostic criteria and therapeutic approaches beyond dose-intense chemotherapy are needed to overcome the unfavorable prognosis of patients with HGBL-NOS.

PURPOSE The International Prognostic Score (IPS) has been used in classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) for 25 years. However, analyses have documented suboptimal performance of the IPS among contemporarily treated patients. Harnessing multisource individual patient data from the Hodgkin Lymphoma International Study for Individual Care consortium, we developed and validated a modern clinical prediction model. METHODS Model development via Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis guidelines was performed on 4,022 patients with newly diagnosed advanced-stage adult cHL from eight international phase III clinical trials, conducted from 1996 to 2014. External validation was performed on 1,431 contemporaneously treated patients from four real-world cHL registries. To consider association over a full range of continuous variables, we evaluated piecewise linear splines for potential nonlinear relationships. Five-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS The median age in the development cohort was 33 (18-65) years; nodular sclerosis was the most common histology. Kaplan-Meier estimators were 0.77 for 5-year PFS and 0.92 for 5-year OS. Significant predictor variables included age, sex, stage, bulk, absolute lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, and albumin, with slight variation for PFS versus OS. Moreover, age and absolute lymphocyte count yielded nonlinear relationships with outcomes. Optimism-corrected c-statistics in the development model for 5-year PFS and OS were 0.590 and 0.720, respectively. There was good discrimination and calibration in external validation and consistent performance in internal-external validation. Compared with the IPS, there was superior discrimination for OS and enhanced calibration for PFS and OS. CONCLUSION We rigorously developed and externally validated a clinical prediction model in > 5,000 patients with advanced-stage cHL. Furthermore, we identified several novel nonlinear relationships and improved the prediction of patient outcomes. An online calculator was created for individualized point-of-care use.