Nyman, Mark A

The objective was to assess the value of routinely collected patient-reported health-related social needs (HRSNs) measures for predicting utilization and health outcomes. The authors identified Mayo Clinic patients with cancer, diabetes, or heart failure. The HRSN measures were collected as part of patient-reported screenings from June to December 2019 and outcomes (hospitalization, 30-day readmission, and death) were ascertained in 2020. For each outcome and disease combination, 4 models were used: gradient boosting machine (GBM), random forest (RF), generalized linear model (GLM), and elastic net (EN). Other predictors included clinical factors, demographics, and area-based HRSN measures—area deprivation index (ADI) and rurality. Predictive performance for models was evaluated with and without the routinely collected HRSN measures as change in area under the curve (AUC). Variable importance was also assessed. The differences in AUC were mixed. Significant improvements existed in 3 models of death for cancer (GBM: 0.0421, RF: 0.0496, EN: 0.0428), 3 models of hospitalization (GBM: 0.0372, RF: 0.0640, EN: 0.0441), and 1 of death (RF: 0.0754) for diabetes, and 1 model of readmissions (GBM: 0.1817), and 3 models of death (GBM: 0.0333, RF: 0.0519, GLM: 0.0489) for heart failure. Age, ADI, and the Charlson comorbidity index were the top 3 in variable importance and were consistently more important than routinely collected HRSN measures. The addition of routinely collected HRSN measures resulted in mixed improvement in the predictive performance of the models. These findings suggest that existing factors and the ADI are more important for prediction in these contexts. More work is needed to identify predictors that consistently improve model performance.

Objective: To evaluate the performance of an Electronic Health Record (EHR) integrated risk score for COVID-19 positive outpatients to predict 30-day risk of hospitalization. Patients and Methods: A retrospective observational study of 67 470 patients with COVID-19 confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test between March 12, 2020 and February 8, 2021. Risk scores were calculated based on data in the chart at the time of the incident infection. Results: The Mayo Clinic COVID-19 risk score consisted of 13 components included age, sex, chronic lung disease, congenital heart disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, end stage liver disease, end stage renal disease, hypertension, immune compromised, nursing home resident, and pregnant. Univariate analysis showed all components, except pregnancy, have significant ( P < .001) association with admission. The Mayo Clinic COVID-19 risk score showed a Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.837 for the prediction of admission for this large cohort of COVID-19 positive patients. Conclusion: The Mayo Clinic COVID-19 risk score is a simple score that is easily integrated into the EHR with excellent predictive performance for severe COVID-19. It can be leveraged to stratify risk for severe COVID-19 at initial contact, when considering therapeutics or in the allocation of vaccine supply.

Objective Persistent post-COVID symptoms are estimated to occur in up to 10% of patients who have had COVID-19. These lingering symptoms may persist for weeks to months after resolution of the acute illness. This study aimed to add insight into our understanding of certain post-acute conditions and clinical findings. The primary purpose was to determine the persistent post COVID impairments prevalence and characteristics by collecting post COVID illness data utilizing Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS ® ). The resulting measures were used to assess surveyed patients physical, mental, and social health status. Methods A cross-sectional study and 6-months Mayo Clinic COVID recovered registry data were used to evaluate continuing symptoms severity among the 817 positive tested patients surveyed between March and September 2020. The resulting PROMIS ® data set was used to analyze patients post 30 days health status. The e-mailed questionnaires focused on fatigue, sleep, ability to participate in social roles, physical function, and pain. Results The large sample size (n = 817) represented post hospitalized and other managed outpatients. Persistent post COVID impairments prevalence and characteristics were determined to be demographically young (44 years), white (87%), and female (61%). Dysfunction as measured by the PROMIS ® scales in patients recovered from acute COVID-19 was reported as significant in the following domains: ability to participate in social roles (43.2%), pain (17.8%), and fatigue (16.2%). Conclusion Patient response on the PROMIS ® scales was similar to that seen in multiple other studies which used patient reported symptoms. As a result of this experience, we recommend utilizing standardized scales such as the PROMIS ® to obtain comparable data across the patients’ clinical course and define the disease trajectory. This would further allow for effective comparison of data across studies to better define the disease process, risk factors, and assess the impact of future treatments.