Jeffery, Molly Moore

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We sought to determine emergency medicine physicians’ accuracy in designating patients’ disposition status as “inpatient” or “observation” at the time of hospital admission in the context of Medicare’s Two-Midnight rule and to identify characteristics that may improve the providers’ predictions. We conducted a 90-day observational study of emergency department (ED) admissions involving adults aged 65 years and older and assessed the accuracy of physicians’ disposition decisions. Logistic regression models were fit to explore associations and predictors of disposition. A total of 2,257 patients 65 and older were admitted through the ED. The overall error rate in physician designation of observation or inpatient was 36%. Diagnoses most strongly associated with stays lasting less than two midnights included diverticulitis, syncope, and nonspecific chest pain. Diagnoses most strongly associated with stays lasting two or more midnights included orthopedic fractures, biliary tract disease, and back pain. ED physicians inaccurately predicted patient length of stay in more than one third of all patients. Under the Two-Midnight rule, these inaccurate predictions place hospitals at risk of underpayment and patients at risk of significant financial liability. Further work is needed to increase providers’ awareness of the financial repercussions of their admission designations and to identify interventions that can improve prediction accuracy.

Objective To identify the relationships between county-level area deprivation and patterns of both opioid prescriptions and drug-poisoning mortality. Design, setting and participants For this retrospective cross-sectional study, we used the IQVIA Xponent data to capture opioid prescriptions and Centres for Disease Control and Prevention National Vital Statistics System to assess drug-poisoning mortality. The Area Deprivation Index (ADI) is a composite measure of social determinants of health comprised of 17 US census indicators, spanning four socioeconomic domains. For all US counties with available opioid prescription (2712 counties) and drug-poisoning mortality (3133 counties) data between 2012 and 2017, we used negative binomial regression to examine the association between quintiles of county-level ADI and the rates of opioid prescriptions and drug-poisoning mortality adjusted for year, age, race and sex. Primary outcome measures County-level opioid prescription fills and drug-poisoning mortality. Results Between 2012 and 2017, overall rates of opioid prescriptions decreased from 96.6 to 72.2 per 100 people, while the rates of drug-poisoning mortality increased from 14.3 to 22.8 per 100 000 people. Opioid prescription and drug-poisoning mortality rates were consistently higher with greater levels of deprivation. The risk of filling an opioid prescription was 72% higher, and the risk of drug-poisoning mortality was 36% higher, for most deprived compared with the least deprived counties (both p<0.001). Discussion Counties with greater area-level deprivation have higher rates of filled opioid prescriptions and drug-poisoning mortality. Although opioid prescription rates declined across all ADI quintiles, the rates of drug-poisoning mortality continued to rise proportionately in each ADI quintile. This underscores the need for individualised and targeted interventions that consider the deprivation of communities where people live.

Objective: Experts cautioned that patients affected by the November 2010 withdrawal of the opioid analgesic propoxyphene might receive riskier prescriptions. To explore this, we compared drug receipts and outcomes among propoxyphene users before and aftermarket withdrawal. Study Design: Using OptumLabs data, we studied 3 populations: commercial, Medicare Advantage (MA) aged (age 65+ y) and MA disabled (age below 65 y) enrollees. The exposed enrollees received propoxyphene in the 3 months before market withdrawal (n=13,622); historical controls (unexposed) received propoxyphene 1 year earlier (n=9971). Regression models estimated daily milligrams morphine equivalent (MME), daily prescription acetaminophen dose, potentially toxic acetaminophen doses, nonopioid prescription analgesics receipt, emergency room visits, and diagnosed falls, motor vehicle accidents, and hip fractures. Principal Findings: Aged MA enrollees illustrate the experience of all 3 populations examined. Following the market withdrawal, propoxyphene users in the exposed cohort experienced an abrupt decline of 69% in average daily MME, compared with a 14% decline in the unexposed. Opioids were discontinued by 34% of the exposed cohort and 18% of the unexposed. Tramadol and hydrocodone were the most common opioids substituted for propoxyphene. The proportion of each group receiving ≥4 g of prescription acetaminophen per day decreased from 12% to 2% in the exposed group but increased from 6% to 8% among the unexposed. Adverse events were rare and not significantly different in exposed versus unexposed groups. Conclusions: After propoxyphene market withdrawal, many individuals experienced abrupt discontinuation of opioids. Policymakers might consider supporting appropriate treatment transitions and monitoring responses following drug withdrawals.

Elderly seasonal migrators share time between homes in different states, presenting challenges for care coordination and patient attribution methods. Medicare has prioritized alternative payment models, putting health care providers at risk for quality and value of services delivered to their attributed patients, regardless of the location of care. Little research is available to guide providers and payers on the service use of seasonal migrators. The authors use claims data on fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries' locations throughout the year to (1) identify seasonal migrators and (2) describe the care they receive in each seasonal home, focusing on primary care and emergency department (ED) visits and the relationships between the two. In all, 5.5% of the Medicare aged FFS population were identified as seasonal migrators, with 4.1% following the traditional snowbird pattern of migration, spending warm months in the north and cold months in the south. Migrators had higher rates of ED visits and primary care treatable (PCT) ED visits than the nonmigratory groups, controlling for location, age, race, sex, Medicaid status, season, and comorbidities. They also had more visits with specialist physicians, more days with outpatient services, and more days seeing a physician in any setting. Having local primary care strongly reduced rates of both PCT ED visits and total ED visits for all migration categories, with the greatest reduction seen in PCT ED visits by migrators (local primary care was associated with a 58% reduction in PCT ED visits by snowbirds and a 65% reduction in PCT ED visits by other migrators).